I have talked a lot about 2011 Bowman, because like last year, its going to be an event. Jumbo boxes are already selling well above $150 bucks, and if you are lucky enough to find some retail Bowman, even those cards are selling crazy. I dont buy baseball cards usually, but I do get caught up in the ridiculous hooplah sometimes. This year will be no different, and I am not going to ignore a situation like this just because my forte is a different sport.
Some of the hobby hits have already started to pop up on eBay, and let me tell you, 150 bucks for a hobby jumbo box doesnt sound that bad right now. The first Bryce Harper live auto sold recently on eBay, and from the looks of it, this could be the most valuable Bowman rookie card ever. People obviously dont learn from their experiences last year, and these Harper auto cards should end up STARTING above where the 2010 Bowman Strasburgs hit their peak.
Here are some other big ones that have surfaced:
Bryce Harper Purple Base Auto /55
Bryce Harper Blue Base Auto Redemption
Bryce Harper Blue Refractor /250
On top of that, the print run should be higher on the base autos than the 2010 Strasburgs if the auto odds on the back of the packs are right, but I dont think that it will matter all that much if Harper continues to tear it up in the minors. Aside from the fact that he most likely wont play this year in the Majors, he will definitely get a chance sometime next year. With the prospect crop for 2012 not necessarily measuring up to the legendary stuff these past two years, the crop from 2011 Bowman may have to suffice for a lot of the products next year too.
Remember, Albert Pujols’ Chrome Autos sell for around the same price as Harper’s rarer autos from the last two years, and he has won handfuls of MVPs and such. If Pujols, the best Bowman Chrome Auto era player ever, is selling EQUAL to Harper, how does that make sense? Like Strasburg last year and the comparison to Tim Lincecum, relativity in production needs to be a factor. If Harper ends up winning 4 MVPs plus whatever else, do these cards become worth THAT much more than what they are right now? Cmon, the odds that he will produce on the level of the top players in the game are small, and yet people have no problem paying crazy prices.
Im not saying buying Harper at all is stupid, especially if you are one of the five Nationals fans out there, but I am saying that spending this kind of money has no merit when the best of the best proven players are selling similarly. These values present huge shoes to fill, which means there is usually nowhere to go but down.