Over the last few years, most of the hype surrounding a draft class paled in comparison to what happened back in 2006. For 2012, the presence of Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin and others look to be on a level that rivals all time classes like 2004 and the aforementioned Bush/Leinart/Young machine. in fact, after seeing values of some of the autographs already being sold on eBay, this could be a record year.
Robert Griffin III Signed Mini Helmet – PSA Auth
Andrew Luck Signed Photo – PSA Auth
The hardest part of buying autographs for college players who have not been drafted, is authenticity. Although companies like GAI offer cerification of non-professional players, I refuse to trust their COAs for a laundry list of reasons. PSA does offer “rookiegraph” certification as well, and I trust those more than GAI, but until I see a certified autograph on a football card, I am not giving my seal of approval.
Current values have already gone well above the means of prospecting to make money at draft time, mainly because of how rampant the speculation is with guys like Luck and RGIII. Basically, they are already slated to go number one and number two, and when it actually takes place, nothing is going to spike.
When all the draft picks are through the combine and on the stage, I know that collectors will continue to jump all over their signatures. I have no problem estimating that Luck will have one of the most valuable pre-season signatures since Reggie Bush, and that isnt even a stretch. Even his unlicensed press pass cards will sell for ridiculous money, as it is obvious to everyone he has a very legit shot at becoming a franchise player.
The only wild card in the situation is where these guys will end up, especially as Peyton Manning gets closer to being ready to play. The Colts could still pull off a blockbuster deal, though unlikely as it may be, and that could throw Griffin into an odd situation with the number 2 pick.
The Colts owner has already said Luck is the guy, but that is never a guarantee. We saw what happened last year on draft day, as the rookie wage scale has huge implications on the risk to take a flier on a guy like Ryan Tannehill or Justin Blackmon too. This is going to be a great rookie class and a crazy draft day, and its only a matter of time before collectors jump on board.
I am already saving for cases of Topps Chrome…
Can you say “bubble”? Half these guys (if not more) will be out of the league in five years…
Somebody please explain to me how, over the long term, an autograph of someone like Newton, Luck, Tebow, or Griffin is going to be worth more than that of some of the all-time greats, like Otto Graham, Bart Starr, Johnny Unitas, Joe Namath, Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw, Roger Staubach, etc….
Exactly. So, just go with it. Break the stuff you know will sell for big bucks and just buy more of the HOFer on card autos. I’ve been doing it for 3+ years now. Get some Chrome RC/Auto slabbed a 9.5, sell for $200 to $300 and buy 4 to 6 Namaths, Staubachs, Grahams and/or a Montana or 3.
Easy answer is they could be better than those guys. cam had the rookie season ever. Luck has een great since his freshman year. The only thing is there are a lot more of the young guy’s autos out or there will be.
The chances that any of these young QB’s will turn out to be BETTER than any of the all-time greats is very slim…all you have to do is look at the past history of QB’s drafted in the first round to see this. There are tens, if not, hundreds, of QB’s who have had great college careers and then flamed out in the NFL, as well as many more who have survived in the NFL but had perfectly ordinary careers. The odds are that Cam Newton, for example, ends up having a Daunte Culpepper or Donovan McNabb, or even Warren Moon type of career, not becoming an all time great. And cards of those guys usually turn up in the commons bin, even an HOFer like Moon.
You can count the number of QB’s who have established long-term hobby value in the last 40 years on both your hands (Bradshaw, Staubach, Montana, Elway, Marino, Aikman, Brady, Favre, and Peyton Manning)…that’s about one every 4-5 years….
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