At this point in the football side of the hobby, only one position carries value on a consistent basis – the Quarterbacks. When the 2013 Rookie Premiere list was announced today, its easy to see that there is going to be a black hole of value in boxes prior to the season starting. With only 1 QB drafted in the first round and the bigger QB prospects going in the 3rd and 4th round after that
, this is not going to be easy until the rookie start to separate themselves on the field.
There are two things for this year that surprise me – the inclusion of 40 guys on the list compared to 35 last year, and the addition of some defensive players for the first time in a while. This is what usually happens when non skill players get invited:
2007 Joe Thomas Draft Day Ink Auto – Arguably the best left tackle in the game, no value.
2007 Darrelle Revis SP Authentic Auto – Arguably the most popular corner in the game, this is the MOST an auto will ever be worth.
2012 Jared Allen National Treasures Auto Patch – Same thing for Allen and his auto
Here is the thing, everyone already knows that there will always be questionable talent invited to the premiere, as later round skill players always take precedent over early round defense and non-skill. In fact, if you look back at the class from 2007, only a handful of the guys are still in the league, and Gaines Adams has even tragically passed away. The premiere is a talent crap shoot in the truest sense of the word, but my point is more to do with the strength of the overall class in tow.
In terms of the defensive players – Manti Teo, as I said when the preview list was leaked, should be going. His signature sells very well. Dion Jordan on the other hand, should not be invited. I was surprised to see how much he is selling for
, which is probably why the decision was made> However, defensive linemen just dont sell at a sustained level at all, and that is being generous. They have to achieve ridiculous accomplishments, or their autos sell like this
. I would have much rather had a 2 dollar auto in a skill player present over a two dollar auto of a lineman. At least the skill player is more likely to see production that many people in the hobby will assign value to their cards. See what happens in the case of a guy like Victor Cruz
– an undrafted free agent.
Here is the final list, interested to hear what people think.
Keenan Allen
Tavon Austin
Stedman Bailey
Montee Ball
Matt Barkley
Le’Veon Bell
Gio Bernard
Knile Davis
Aaron Dobson
Tyler Eifert
Andre Ellington
Zach Ertz
Gavin Escobar
Jonathan Franklin
Mike Gillislee
Mike Glennon
Marquise Goodwin
DeAndre Hopkins
Justin Hunter
Landry Jones
Dion Jordan
Eddie Lacy
Marcus Lattimore
EJ Manuel
Vance McDonald
Christine Michael
Ryan Nassib
Cordarrelle Patterson
Quinton Patton
Joseph Randle
Jordan Reed
Denard Robinson
Geno Smith
Kenny Stills
Stepfan Taylor
Manti Te’o
Markus Wheaton
Terrance Williams
Tyler Wilson
Robert Woods
Thats a sad class. Will not be buying any new football for 2013.
What!? Sylvester Williams wasn’t invited??? Just Kidding, I am a Broncos fan, so that was a bit biased. In 2007 the Broncos drafted Jarvis Moss in Round #1 and Tim Crowder in Round #2 both are no longer with the team. The 2007 draft is similar to the recent 2013 Draft. Aside from the big names in 2007: RB Adrian Peterson WR Calvin Johnson, (Possibly)Dwayne Bowe and Marshawn Lynch, who has made a resurgance in Seattle so his value has gone up some. A handful of great Defensive Players from that draft class have made a solid career in the NFL, LB’s Jon Beason, Patrick Willis, Paul Posluszny, Anthony Spencer, Lawrence Timmons, LaMarr Woodley, and David Harris. CB’s & SF’s: Derrell Revis, LaRon Landry, Dashon Goldson, and Brandon Meriweather, who was a 2x Pro-Bowl player with the Pats, since his depature, Meriweather has not regained his once dominate presence. Charles Johnson has been a solid DE.
Comparing the QB’s in the 2007 and 2013 draft class I can see a lot of possible similarities. 2007; JaMarcus Russell, John Beck, Kevin Kolb, Trent Edwards, Chris Leak, Troy Smith, Jordan Palmer, Jered Zabranski. 2013: Landry Jones, EJ Manuel, Ryan Nassib, and Geno Smith.
Both the 2007 and 2013 Draft Class had only 11 QB’s taken.
2007 NFL Draft Defensive Breakdown:33 Linebackers, 30 Cornerbacks, 25 Defensive ends, 20 Safeties,and 18 Defensive tackles. 2007 NFL Draft Offensive Breakdown: 34 Wide receivers, 22 Offensive tackles, 18 Running backs, 13 Tight ends, 12 Offensive guards, 7 Centers, 6 Fullbacks and 3 Kickers/Punters
2013 NFL Draft Defensive Breakdown: 30 Defensive ends, 29 Cornerbacks, 27 Linebackers, 23 Safeties, and 19 Defensive tackles.2013 NFL Draft Offensive Breakdown: 28 Wide receivers, 23 Running backs, 18 Offensive guards, 18 Offensive tackles, 16 Tight ends, 5 Centers, 3 Fullbacks, and 2 Kickers/Punters.
What was disappointing that the 2007 Upper Deck’s Football Flagship product has been one of my favorite. 2007 Upper Deck has a great simple design to go along with its’ signature action shots for each veteran player, creative shoots for the Rookie Cards, and most of all the stock of the cards were thicker. Ripping a pack of 2007 Upper Deck football in 2007, the cards are just as good if you ripped one open today. Topps Flagship, on the other hand, for that year, had the black boarder design that is tough to even keep in good condition. 2007 Topps Chrome kick butt as usual.
Bottom line, we, as collectors of football cards, have been spoiled for the past 5 years. I can see Upper Deck profiting more this year due to the skill position players most likely won’t have the same success in the NFL. A Landry Jones or Ryan Nassib auto featured in their prospective college uniform or a cut of their college uniform might be more sought after. Being from Oregon, I would pay more for a 2013 Upper Deck Dion Jordan auto than one with the Dolphins but that is just my .002
You know it’s bad when you have 3 Bills players….. As a Bills fan , I’m in tho …
Looks like I will only be buying Upper Deck this year. Like Brian, I’d rather have my Jarvis Jones auto in his Georgia jersey rather than wherever they end up in the NFL.