A big piece of news was released today, despite being a part of the running commentary for a while now. Topps announced that they had extended their exclusive agreement with MLBP through 2025, which means that no other companies will be able to produced licensed MLB trading cards for at least another 7 years.

Because this is going to stir up a whole bunch of shit, I wanted to offer my long form reaction, rather than just typing it out on twitter one tweet at a time. Being that there are two sides to this, its worth discussing both what the impact is from a collector perspective and a more behind the scenes perspective. Obviously, most people only care that Topps is going to be the only game in town for another long period of time, and not necessarily what that could mean for the periphery.

I can sum the first part of this perspective up pretty simply. As a collector, this news sucks. It just does.

Not only will collector favorites like Upper Deck continue to sit on the sidelines, but its going to perpetuate a lot of the existing trends that have been widely criticized across the hobby. Collectors want variety, I want variety, and we should be upset that this is the way things are. All four leagues have been under exclusives since 2015, and that isnt going away. It seems to stifle progress, risk taking, and all sorts of other shit, which doesnt bode well for onboarding new collectors. The card companies seem to just go with what they feel is working, and rely more on the star power present in the latest rookie class than anything else.

There is very little progress, similarly, towards the next big thing, of which I felt was digital collecting up until about a year and a half ago. There is very little incentive publicly to move the ball forward, at least from what we see, and not a lot of transparency as to what is coming down the pike.

Overall, a lack of competition is something that I have always hated, and continue to hate. Its not good for anyone, as its clear that Topps in MLB, or Panini in the NBA / NFL produce exclusively what everyone wants. We want to see Topps Chrome Football, Upper Deck SPA and Exquisite Basketball, and Flawless Baseball. It would be a great thing to have an environment where more collectors could speak with their wallets more effectively.

What people dont really seem to understand is that the leagues want the exclusives as much as the companies want to be the recipients of said exclusives. Cards seem to be more of a necessary evil for the major sports, and they definitely enjoy not having to navigate a very complicated market that is occupied by 3-4 licensees. They want to focus on the other things that generate more money, and leave the complexity outside of the agreements. Similarly, it allows them more flexibility interally, and the ability to be prescriptive with the company that owns the exclusive. They want control over their intellectual property and proprietary business, and its easier to do that through one company than many. If cards generated more money, and the business dictated more competition would bring tons more to the table, they may consider it. I dont think that is the case outside of World Cup stickers, however.

So, blaming Topps for the new exclusive agreement isnt necessarily misplaced aggression, but they are also not the only piece to this puzzle. More importantly, outside of product development and product management – the place where most of the community vitriol is directed – the exclusive does give a lot of power for investing in things that enables better products to be made. The product teams need to execute there, but the exclusive as a protective investment is important there.

Basically, player relationships, retailer engagement, collector programs, marketing, and inventory generation and control all benefit from a long term exclusive agreement. Topps can and has dedicated more funds to these areas, if not only because they know the license is theirs to hold. Panini has actually done a VERY good job with this on the NFL side, even though my opinion of their product execution remains about the same.

Things that make a better product are many, and a lot of them depend on some of these investments behind the scenes to ensure the money they pour into the business actually produces a strong ROI. Obviously when that translates into the product teams, there are going to be mixed results, as always. Before the exclusive market took over the card industry, shit still went wrong – A LOT. That is just part of the way things are, and I doubt that would change, even if split licenses came back.

Shitty products or production errors are as common in sports cards now as they ever have been. I guess that’s more a knock on progress to a greater ideal, but I also dont believe that a lack of incentive prevented progress there. It may not have promoted said progress, but its not like it wouldnt happen either.

Overall, we know that the Industry is starting to bounce back now, and doing so on a pretty consistent clip. That progress hasnt gone unnoticed by the manufacturers, and its a big reason why we should expect them to stay quiet when the leagues continue to want to do business on an exclusive level. They dont want to stifle that progress in their own business, nor lose the favor with each of the leagues they work with.

Even more than that, if we know the leagues want exclusivity, we should consider what might happen if someone like Topps doesnt get this done. Topps has the longest running business in cards, and is the only company with any real place in the public consciousness with cards. Upper Deck is there too, but they arent as relevant these days. If Topps doesnt get this exclusive, the business would likely go to Panini, exclusively. There was some rumors of a split license back a year ago, but the discussion doesnt seem to have been anything more than that. If you dont like what Topps is doing with baseball, are you similarly comfortable with them being completely gone as well? Hell fucking no. Topps is baseball cards, and you are kidding yourself if you believe that isnt the case. I mean, 99.99% of the US population hears Panini and thinks of a grilled sandwich. That’s not good for anyone.

We shouldnt give up the fight to end this practice, and the only way for that to happen is to continue to engage directly on every level of the industry. This means talking directly to the manufacturers, the distributors, and surely your local shop owners and breakers. They have power as much as you do, and your feedback does get reviewed. You may not hear a direct response, but it doesnt fall as much on deaf ears as you might think. Business things like this exclusive arrangement are likely not going to be up for discussion, but the way you engage with and purchase products are always worth a review.

Net net, go through how you engage with the hobby and the industry and find what works for you. If this means you are done with cards, sorry to see you go. If this means you find a more balanced approach, that’s fine too. Overall, its time to come to terms with the fact that the exclusives are here for the foreseeable future, and we will have to deal with it. Its not a collecting utopia, but its also far from the worst thing that could happen.