I have said a number of times that if you arent a QB and you arent a rookie, chances are you are not going to have much value in football any longer. Although sales seem to be up relative to previous years, secondary market values continue to be a challenge for most of the card companies. One could argue that the increase in sales has all but entirely been accounted for by the advent of group breakers, local shops seem to be having a slightly better time overall with selling the most popular American sport.

This almost begs a certain question of shouldered burden of ripping wax. If GB spots are a much less costly way to engage with opening boxes of product, does that devalue the cards on the secondary market that seem to be from forgettable players or at least forgettable sets? I would say that it seems like that. Sure, there are always exception to the rules, but we consistently see that football is about as volatile a market as exists. Players are getting cut for lack of performance much earlier on in their already short career, which already has a huge impact on prospecting value in the NFL. 

With that, QBs are really the only position on the value spectrum that have major potential, and now that we see teams are moving on from draft picks two years in, that doesnt say much about hitting the lottery with your investment. For every late round Dak Prescott or a top pick like Wentz/Goff, there are 5-10 others on a yearly basis that go nowhere. Look at 2012, 2013, 2014 and even 2015 to a degree. Not many success stories. Funny how that works in the NFL, as it is literally 100% different in NBA and MLB.

If a running back comes into the league at 20, he has a maximum of 10 years to accumulate a career’s worth of stats to be valuable enough to make sense to a secondary market investor. In baseball, players dont even hit their peak until 10 years in sometimes, and basketball is even more likely that a player could start being impactful day one and play for decades. The NFL is about as far off of that as anything, and its depressing that the injury potential is driving careers to extinction so early these days.

So, now that we know that tiny sample size out of every year’s 40 player rookie premiere class are actually successful, what do we do with the hundreds of thousands of other autographs and rookie cards that are released every year. For the most part, people will rip them in group breaks until the cows come home, but very few are actually buying the way they should after the initial release buzz has worn off. 

We see the secondary market can soften by up to 75% in some cases less than 8 weeks after a card hits shelves. Its literally insane how little half life these examples can have. Panini’s bullish investment in an exclusive NCAA license has forced these new co-branded sets down our throat, but the secondary market has long shown how little support there is for the cards later on in the season. Some of the products do look great, which is good for a number of reasons, but no one seems to care about the top picks in their college uniforms once pro stuff becomes available.

Believe it or not, I would say there are a batch of products from each company in each sport that cements whatever that manufacturer’s legacy might be. In football, unless a card comes from one of these brands, it will be subject to a more intense volatility that doesnt exist for any other product. 

If I had to identify the football “legacy” brands that are still in current production, its pretty simple. National Treasures, Contenders, and MAYBE Prizm if you really held my feet to the fire. One could argue Flawless or Immaculate has made their way into this, but only for very specific cards. Rookie cards in Flawless arent holding up over the years like the others do, and that has to be the scariest example there is. Yup, you buy a 1500 dollar box, but the main hits in 90% of the boxes will soften to the point of melted ice cream by the time the next card season starts. That is just fucking stupid. In fact, its so fucking stupid that I hate myself for continuing to be addicted to football cards. 

What makes this more troubling beyond just the secondary market value, is the people who make up the secondary market dont SEEM to have grown in size, despite the fact that group breakers have added more wax ripping consumers to the pool. I would guess this speaks to being able to buy spots as a currency of participation in the hobby instead of buying both spots and singles. I see a lot of people wanting to drop 50 bucks on a good team for a break, but not many who want to spend that 50 bucks on the cards generated by that spot. Instead, they would much rather just go for another spot.

Its created a bit of a gambling atmosphere within an environment that already hinges on hopeless addicts like myself to function. The challenge has always been bringing more consumers to the secondary market, which in turn floats the primary market that most of the shops depend on. Outside of a very small handful of sets in the NFL, that doesnt exist. 

I would heavily argue that Panini has done very little to show that they are committed to doing what is right to make good looking cards. They always come back at me and say that opinion can change collector to collector, which is true. However, I dont see the current team at Panini as responsible for adding to the batch of legacy sets that exists. Contenders has been around for multiple decades, and same could be said about NT. Other than Prizm, Immaculate and Flawless, there arent many new creations that people fawn over. Secondary market performance shows that there is still a huge gaping hole of value between what Contenders and Treasures generates versus these products, despite a similar box cost. I would love for Impeccable to be in this discussion, but we see that is far from the case. 

To be completely honest, I wonder if this might have changed had they chosen to stick with the Donruss brand for all their sets instead of a brand like Panini which was unfamiliar to 99.9% of US based collectors. 

I want Panini to be successful, because as said before, Im a hopeless wax ripping addict. I want to see collectors buy on the secondary market the way they do in the MLB and especially in the NBA. A lack of international appeal, and a lack of career longevity will always be a huge part of why the NFL wont measure up. 

Can we at least just aim to add more products that have some compelling reason for existence other than filling one of the 35 other gaps on the calendar that are required by the license? I just want Panini to realize that they have been unsuccessful in that quest. As much progress as I think they have made in the last 2 years, creating a lasting legacy brand outside of Contenders and Treasures has been a giant gap, one that the other sports seems to have been able to accomplish.