Again, this year’s focus is all about the insane wave of value increases starting in March and continuing with the pandemic era late into the year. Some have said that there is a ton of new money that has entered the hobby, but I dont see it with the same rose colored glasses – as I have said before.

Most of what I am seeing is people who would be spending on lavish or even regular trips for the summer months, instead spending on cards with no travel options available. At the top end, investing in the most expensive cards available, things may be different, but most still believe there is a bubble that exists.

Cards like these are really where things have exploded:

2009 Bowman Chrome Mike Trout Auto RC BGS 9.5

1986 Fleer Michael Jordan RC PSA 9

These cards really only apply to the top of the top spenders, mainly the top .0000001% of the hobby. Mostly they are investing in high graded versions of the most important players’ rookie cards in each sport.

Then there is this subset of value bumps that I just have no idea about. Things like spending insane money on a time that a player first appears in a Panini Prizm sets. Dont even get me started on that garbage.

Among all these different trends – one thing really remains the same. Rookie cards remain the coin in which cards are standardized across, with few exceptions (Upper Deck Jordan cards anyone?). That begs the question – for people looking to really invest rather than collect, is it worth buying any other cards besides the main rookie cards that people chase at top end of things?

Going back to my previous article – I said it was a select group of sets that really set the standard. Chrome stock based products for Topps and Panini, NBA and NFL National Treasures, NFL Contenders, and few others. In fact, the super-super-super premium wax like Transcendent and the like really dont set the standard the way Bowman Chrome does. Same can be said about Flawless. For such an expensive box, it doesnt perform on the secondary market the way NT and Prizm does.

At the time of release, Flawless was designed to be the more expensive product based on MSRP. Eventually NT became insanely more expensive, mainly because collectors see NT as the standardization, not Flawless.

Going back to the point of this article, if the purpose is resale and long term gains on investment, why would anyone buy any of the products that dont offer the cards that eventually become the top cards in the hobby?

Other than the fact that prospecting on the main products has caused wax to skyrocket in price even before the cards are released, the answer should be pretty simple. Buying boxes of the flavor of the month to pull cards that are the flavor of the month, isnt a good business plan. There are exceptions to the rule, for sure, but nothing like just spending money where you know the top cards available will ALWAYS be the top cards.

I know, its not fun to just buy the cards instead of pulling them yourself. I would argue that the investors who have made enough to pay off their house these last few months arent ripping boxes left and right. Their dopamine rush isnt coming from ripping packs. Its buying stock in RCs that they know to be the cards surrounding the top players for years to come.

Even though Panini puts out 40 NFL products a year, the only ones that matter are WELLLLL known. Why do you think Topps puts out 18 bowman products and 18 topps base set products a year? Its the place where the secondary market looks to set the standard for their goods.

I just find it hilarious to see self titled investors pumping THOUSANDS into products that fail to meet the standards established over years worth of investing prior to the popularity during 2020. If you are among that group, maybe I have been gone for too long to truly see the short term benefit of rip and flipping garbage like Illusions or Phoenix. From a long term perspective, I dont seem to be far off.