There are things happening in this hobby every day that defy everything we have come to understand about cards. Million dollar sales that used to be reserved for the T206 Wagner are now happening regularly. A card isnt important until it can sell for six figures. Oh, and some of the biggest celebrities on the planet are getting involved with ripping wax.
Famous people have been around the hobby through the boom period, with Kevin Durant, Deshaun Watson, and Logan Paul all being big names making news. Most of their involvement has been around picking up being pieces for their investment portfolio, including a seven figure scam that cost Logan Paul over a million dollars a few months back. Gary Vaynerchuck and Steve Aoki are both very well known in their own ventures with cards, including some special sets created with their input.
You will notice that none of these explanations include getting down and dirty with ripping wax, and that’s where Drake comes into play. I dont even need to explain who Drake is, because for most of us, he is someone that is famous enough to transcend a lot of age related boundaries. Well something has awakened within him a need to get into Flawless NBA like nothing we have ever seen. For most collectors, buying high end product and singles has become a way of life, but there is always a limit. There is always that risk that at some point we cant spend any more money. Drake does not have that limit.
Even more than that, Drake seems to be content ripping product to get what he wants, something that was never a factor for other investor types. His desire seems to be driven by the triple logo cards that Flawless is offering this year, cards that have brought about gigantic bounties for the top names in the set. If you have been around for a while, its easy to see why this is the focus, as the Exquisite versions are usually some of the most valuable cards in the hobby. It has taken Panini over a decade to figure out that it was time to make their own, and they are attracting attention rarely reserved for trading cards.
Drake has been a gigantic NBA fan for his entire time on the world’s stage, being at the forefront of Toronto’s NBA title run, and other aspects of the league. Being that Im not a huge basketball nut, my understanding has only been passive. The fact that I still understand all this to be true is a testament to his level of celebrity.
As a result of Drake’s entry into the Flawless marketplace, the entire market has changed. Flawless boxes and cases are up quite a bit in price, breakers are trying to attract his attention with slates of premium breaks, and collectors are falling over each other to get into streams and breaks where he is participating. Because he has hundreds of millions of social media followers, his attention is as important to a social media influencer as the actual breaks are to the breakers. Recently, Layton Sports and Blez Brothers announced a ridiculous 25 case break of Flawless, with slots costing around $40k. The goal was to capitalize and ride the lightning of this new attention, and they succeeded in selling out all the slots. That’s what happens when true fame and fortune enter the conversation.
As expected, not everyone is all about this new wave of investormania to begin with, and Drake only fuels more eye rolls and talk of how this house is built on an unsteady foundation. To a degree these nay-sayers arent wrong, the speculative bubble that is driving cards has already deflated a bit leading into the beginning of 2022, especially as PSA clears their backlog and floods the market with copious amounts of high grade slabs.
Personally, I love sitting back and watching all of this unfold. I never expected someone like this to work the way Drake has, and I fully expect it to be short lived unless he decides he enjoys the constant tags and pandering. So far, there arent many products out there that offer this kind of chase, but that doesnt mean they dont exist in an availability that can be exploited. Old cases of National Treasures, Prizm and the like are still out there in huge quantities, because Panini ran the presses overtime leading up to the boom. If he really wants to get in, he can. When you have no limit to your budget, its easy to get what you want.
When this all started, I equated the meteoric rise to the lockdowns and the lack of places to spend one’s disposable income. I figured that when we were able to resume more of a normal life, that the bottom 75% of the club would see things drop a bit back to normal. What I didnt expect was groups of celebrities with true influence to see the potential and be a catalyst to interest from the mainstream public. Most of those celebrities existed in a bubble, investing in very specific things with a very specific desired outcome. Drake is a very public celebrity doing things that very public celebrities dont usually do publicly – throw an obscene amount of money around in a space that is basically gambling.
This is where the market can shift, and stay shifted, as their influence really drives popular culture. Popular culture drives society in so many ways I cant even put it into focus as it pertains to this situation. Drake is undoubtedly showing this excess laden chase to people who didnt know it existed. People with A LOT of money. Other celebs. Fans. Investors. His level of fame touches all the areas that cards rarely have access to unless you are looking for it. There are arguments to be made that it wont matter long term, valid ones at that. This is one of those things that can change a market in a day though – for good or for worse.