I dont think there has been a WWE product that I have paid this much attention over the five plus years I have been in this niche of the hobby. Prizm is a whirlwind of intrigue, with record sales coming one after the other, and a new frontier of mainstream attention. Funny enough, there are a few things yet to happen that will change the landscape of the product going forward. I want to go through a few of them.
Major Parallels from Hulk Hogan, The Rock, and Roman Reigns
As of now, we have seen 4 cards hit $15k on the secondary market, and none of them are the ones that everyone is waiting to pop up. The most desirable base parallels of the top tier guys have yet to hit the block, and its entirely possible that each will set their own new record as they surface. As mentioned yesterday, there are likely a number of reasons for this to happen, including the wait times at PSA.
Once these cards show up and really show the potential of the product, things could get very out of have very fast. There are multiple high end sports collectors waiting for the first Rock Gold to be available for sale, and the Black 1/1 will likely end up being one of the most valuable wrestling cards of all time.
I have started compiling a tracker of the Black Prizm 1/1s, available here.
We did see a Gold Rock base pulled by Santiago Sports early last week, but there have been only friend of a friend reports of any sales for the top gold in the set. I would think the major Rock parallels will continue to be the chase card for this product, long into the future. Weird that we havent seen any pop up yet for sale. Same can be said for Roman Reigns, a gold yet to be pulled on a public page.
The End of the Recoup Scramble
Most Prizm buyers will buy wax and break slots to chase specific aspects of the set that they are looking for. Very few will see their lottery ticket payoff. Left behind is a lot of debt and invested cash that needs to be replaced with returns from those breaks. Prizm features a MASSIVE checklist, and with it, a lot of bulk that will end up hitting eBay en masse to attempt to pay back all the money people have poured into this product.
The result is auction after auction being posted without a true need to get top value for the cards. Right now, those individuals just want SOMETHING, and the market isnt big enough yet to support the massive amount of sales at the value that they deserve. This gives people the chance to get some really REALLY nice cards for a cost well below expectations.
Over the next few weeks, this phenomenon will stop, and the auctions will be replaced with fixed price listings that are more representative of dealers who can wait out the storm. More importantly, as PSA returns cards submitted during these first few weeks, we will start to see a true representation of what the market can support. Pop reports will start to fill up, investor apps will launch their indexes, and all of this will seem like a period we should have all spent some money within.
The Beginning of the Retail Storm
Busting hobby boxes isnt an available option for many collectors, especially as prices climb above $1000. per. Retail is another option that people have tried to use as a replacement, without realizing that the main parallels that make Prizm such a landmark brand are not included. The parallels that are included will be available in quantities that far exceed today, and that side of things will take an absolute dive.
There is an entire contingent of the hobby based around retail sales for Prizm, and even more wrestling collectors who want a chance to rip some packs. This leads to a gigantic flood of base, unnumbered base parallels, retail exclusive unnumbered parallels, and bulk that will crash value on a ton of cards.
As you are looking at the market today, remember that the numbered cards are usually immune to the floods that will rain down upon this niche. Panini printed a fucking shit ton of Prizm, as they know it is a product that has the highest demand across all areas of the collecting population. The cards that will be most impacted by this are the ones that have no limit to their print run. Just be careful.
Ongoing Battles With Hobby and Wrestling Trolls
I have been doing what I can to chronicle Prizm, mainly because its entertaining as hell to see the niche I adopted blow up. Others have huge investments in the product and want it to be successful to ensure those investments appreciate. The cheerleaders like me and the investors all will look at Prizm in a very positive light. On the other side is a group of people who are unhappy that they are no longer able to participate in the fray the way they once used to. They are joined by influencers with ulterior motives around the content of their own collections, and savvy investors who know what is coming and try to drive prices down to buy the dip that will only be available during the scramble drill described above.
Each day, those people will point to the market settling as a sign that Prizm is a bust. They will continue to pick and choose their battles to showcase the data that supports their agenda. In reality, nothing that has happened with Prizm is surprising other than the shocking prices paid already for some of the main product hits. Most are pointing to the dropping values associated with the bulk, and higher numbered parallels within the gigantic checklist. In reality, this happens with every release, and is not surprising in the slightest.
Prizm is already the most successful WWE product ever produced, and nothing will change that. Every day since release, cards have sold at prices that would just not happen in any other product. As Panini gets into other legacy brands, similar things will happen for those sets too. Although the market will settle on a number of things, the existing performance has already cemented everything Panini was hoping to get out of this product.
As more configurations are released, more record sales are achieved, and more eyes land on WWE as a target for investors, Prizm will continue to have a tremendous impact on wrestling cards that has never been available before. Here is the thing, that is a very good situation for a number of reasons – regardless of what the trolls spout from their mountaintops. Panini is going to own this license for the foreseeable future. A huge successful performance will ensure future investment in the brand, above and beyond expected ROIs.
More importantly, the dip isnt going to be permanent on most of the desirable elements of this product. Manufacturer expectation is that 33-50% of the hobby run gets busted in the first few weeks. As that rush tails off, the available inventory will shrink. Less inventory and baseline general speculation creates an outcome that very easy to predict. The trolls may have their day for a bit, but for those who know how Prizm performs long term, its easy to react with a sly laugh.
A Look to the Future
We already know what the next WWE product is, and its one that I wouldnt have chosen as my second in line. Revolution WWE is designed to be a more affordable product in a very expensive hobby, but as with everything, that has changed over the last few years with the other versions Panini has released. Revolution NBA started off as a cheap set builders product with lots of base variations and few autographs. As the hobby took off, it has found a niche market within the NBA of rabid collectors who want the rare variations that come less than one per case.
Because the NBA market is so huge, products like Revolution can be successful in niche collecting communities who have built PCs around the product and certain players/teams. For the WWE, I dont really see that happening in the same fashion. The market is too small, and the box prices are already creeping above $300 dollars in preparation for predicted crossover. My guess is Panini thought that Revolution would be a more affordable option for people priced out of Prizm, but secondary market dealers have already crashed that party with pre-order pricing well above expectations.
Similarly, with Chronicles WWE now confirmed as well, we could see the giant impact that these dealers can have in suffocating the momentum started by Prizm. I understand the speculative drive that leads to ginormous prices on Prizm wax. For non-legacy products outside of Prizm, Immaculate, NT and the like, I think this is a bit reckless with a new market. Then again, with major breakers able to support any price the dealers choose, it might end up being a snake eating its own tail – our Hobby Ouroboros.
Regardless of the future prospects created by Prizm’s explosion onto the market, WWE is on the cusp of the hobby mainstream. With that, the hobby will need to figure out the path before the trolls can derail things. Its so weird to see how this all has played out, because I knew there would be an army of wrestling collectors fighting against the tide. Im just hoping that people can see through the bullshit and really understand what is going on.