Its rare that a product like Topps Chrome has the kind of movement that the 2011 offering has had over the last few weeks. Upon release, the boxes were slated for a box price that hovered around 65-70 dollars, which was right at expectations for the previous years’ pricing. However, with hard signed autographs, new refractor parallels, and a tremendous design for 2011 Topps, prices have skyrocketed in a way they never have before.
These prices have led to huge prices on singles that are way beyond what anyone could have ever expected. Rookie class performance has been a factor, but there are always at least one or two freshman players that have an impact on their teams each year. Its pretty obvious that with both hobby and retail drying up around the country, these prices are reflective on how much collectors value top execution on a favorite product. The football license is due up at the end of this year, and the NFLPA and NFLP would be stupid to overlook potential of a company that can deliver results like this:
DeMarco Murray Chrome Gold Refractor Auto /10 – This could be the most ridiculous Chrome auto sale yet.
Ryan Mallet Red Refractor Auto /5 – Tom Brady’s backup is getting this much?
Christian Ponder Red Refractor Auto /5
Cam Newton Red Refractor /25 – I dont think non-auto, non 1/1 cards have sold for this much since Jordan.
Like many collectors, I have called for hard signed autographs in Chrome for the last five years. Its the one style of product in baseball that creates a huge chase element, and since the beginning of time, they have all been hard signed. Football has a unique challenge with player availability during the time frame in which the signatures are gathered, but we have seen that both Topps and Panini have been able to overcome these situations with a few of their products. Now that Topps has set the bar for the rest of their calendar, its going to be interesting to see if they are going to be able to maintain the momentum.
Hard signed signatures do not make a product, as we saw with Absolute. Content delivery, theme and design also has to be a factor, and that is where Panini has consistently missed the boat. Absolute had a similar production run, but because the cards do not look even close to the level in which Topps delivered, the prices are exactly the same (if not worse) than last year. Certified will also be on card and is dropping this week, but I have to believe that they are going to need some major help to see returns like Topps saw with Chrome or Inception. Both products jumped in price dramatically after release, and its all because its tough to argue with the way the cards look.
As I have said before, hard signed signatures can cast shadows over suspect design and content, which means that they wont ever hurt to try to include. On the other hand, from what we are seeing with Panini’s stuff, its not going to be something that will contribute to success unless you ALSO deliver on the rest of the set.
I would suggest the box price changes have more to do with hobby shops not ordering deeply and then market manipulation happening.
When it came to ordering Inception, Topps did a lot last year to reposition itself with higher end releases, but not enough to make me max out on this early season release.
When it came to ordering Topps Chrome, early 2011 NFL box sales were not the best I had seen and I played it safe. Throw in how meh 2010 Chrome sales were and it also did not make sense to max out.
My store sold out of each of these releases faster than planned and while the distributors each had them in stock, prices were being changed “because they had to go out into the market and pay market price”.
I would suggest that while the on card autos from Chrome are helpful and Inception was better received than expected, that the same games we usually see played are still on, but only in reverse.
True, but a lot of the content is the reason the orders came up short. Shops may have short ordered the product, but that wouldnt have been a problem if it sucked.
The Mallet prices are outrageous but I would say its a bargain today…i think he could be very good if traded or pending injury to Brady….As with Murray, hes prone to injury so sell sell today!!!!!….Chrome is a nice set…..hope they can continue with FIVE STAR…..
Topps Chrome is the only football set I put together anymore, and this seems to be the best issue yet. I covered the cost of my first two boxes by pulling a Julio Jones Refractor Variant Auto. I’ll be picking up two more boxes this weekend.
I think Panini’s inability to deliver quality products is helping Chrome continue to stay on fire. Maybe after Certified and Totally Certified are released, their “Seriously Certified” set will raise the bar. Not holding my breath.
Adam,
Was 2011 Gypsy Queen MLB a great release because it delivered so much value or because people had to have what nobody had?
I would vote the second and believe much the same about Chrome NFL. There is no reason that I should have paid a dist. $85.99 for it today other than they are simply charging more because the market will allow for it.
The big card has already been pulled, but people are asking me for it because their options are so limited.
Chrome has now cracked $100 at the hobby shop I go to ($105) and online it looks like it’s over $110 on a few sites. I wonder if Chrome would have gone this high if either Panini designed better products and/or Upper Deck had an NFL license and something like SPx came out at a similar time.