As you have all probably seen lately, there are some major changes coming to MLB in terms of the superstars of the sport, with some bigger signings already being made. The biggest one, centered around the contract of Albert Pujols have yet to be finalized, but it does not look like many of the big free agents will remain in the colors they wore the season before.

Albert Pujols is not only the best player in baseball currently, he is also one of the most valuable signatures across the four sports. His production is already on a higher career trajectory than many of Baseball’s titans of the past, and that spells HUGE value for his cards. However, if he signs with another team, one that doesn’t have as much collectability – such as the Miami Marlins – will he be able to retain the ridiculous value he has accumulated over the years.

The Florida Marlins have been a collectibles black hole over the last few years, as the lack of fan base and consistent poor performance in both attendance and success have garnered little value for players like Hanley Ramirez. Although he is a top player at his position in years past, he has rarely had the type of value he deserved. Obviously Albert Pujols is on a COMPLETELY different level, but playing in Miami does have its drawbacks.

One bright spot is that the Marlins have already signed Jose Reyes, another dynamic player who collectors love, but Im not sure if that will be enough. The nucleus of young players like Mike Stanton and others provides hope for the upcoming seasons, but with the money they have thrown at these players, it makes me wonder if they will get any return on their investment.

When the Rangers threw hundreds of millions of dollars at A-Rod, it was only a matter of years before they had to trade him due to cost. This could be a very similar situation if the Marlins new stadium doesn’t do what it is supposed to do for the bankroll.

More importantly, when the signature of the worlds most valuable player has potential to sink in value, what will that do for the ability for collectors to continue doing well on their breaks? The reason I ask is that there are very few signatures in baseball that can crack 100 bucks regularly, and almost all of them are prospects in the minors with few exceptions. Bryce Harper cannot carry things on his own, and there are already major complaints as to how successful baseball products can continue to be at their current price point.

When reviewing the nature of collecting in baseball, the sport that was once so focused on set building and the like has changed. Basketball and football have rubbed off on collector wants and desires, and you can see that Topps has not been great at translating the success in those sports over to the diamond. Because Baseball has such a different approach and impact from their rookie classes every year, it becomes impossible to renew the pool consistently every year. Therefore, most of the value in baseball resides in its pre-war and old time HOF stars, most of which are dead. Unlike Football and Basketball, where many of these players are still alive, autograph content is horrifically deteriorated.

There are no Michael Jordan type retired players who are available all year to sign cards, and it becomes almost impossible to build products around current stars who signatures don’t carry the value of a box. Additionally, with prospecting sets limited by the league, there is only so much more to explore. I think this is where baseball cards have some major problems that may never have a solution. I would have to believe that doing a high end, high cost box with 100% on card signatures is a good start, but the chance it would fail due to target market is enormous. Then again, hard signed, well designed cards with ridiculous patches are ALWAYS popular, as long as they are done right.