In today’s hobby there are things that go down that defy logic every single day. Most of these logic defying acts are complete disregard for comparability, especially in what people have paid for a card of one player, versus what they will pay for a card of another player. Because sports is all about stats and accomplishments, I really have no idea how a player with little to no accomplishments can produce sales of comparable nature to one that has accomplished everything.

In baseball, prospecting is a pretty lucrative and controversial practice that both infuriates and excites many collectors. Players like Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg, despite having little to no experience on the field frequently outsell players at similar positions who have won MVPs and Cy Youngs. I can see that potential for production is the driving force behind many of the sales, but when the cards cost as much as they did for these two guys, it makes zero sense to buy in.

Bryce Harper’s card prices do the talking:

Bryce Harper Bowman Buyback Auto BGS 9.5

Bryce Harper Bowman Chrome Blue Refractor Auto

Bryce Harper Aflac Auto BGS 9.5

Similarly, Tim Tebow is the hottest conversation topic of the NFL right now, mainly because of the unconventional ways his team has managed to pull off late victories. He had one of the best college careers in history, but has yet to see the type of production that normal NFL QBs can generate. My feelings aside, his stats are pretty unremarkable, and yet his top rookies sell very close to rookies autographs of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, players that have ALREADY accomplished everything there is to accomplish. Bottom line, I dont care how many games Tebow has won, to pay this much when its pretty obvious that he will most likely never produce at a level like Brady or Manning continues to make me wonder who are the buyers for these cards.

Check out what I mean:

Tim Tebow National Treasures Rookie Patch Auto

Tim Tebow Five Star Rookie Patch Auto

Tim Tebow Exquisite Rookie Patch Auto

I have to believe that prospecting in football is fundamentally different than prospecting in baseball only because of the immediate impact that players can have on their teams from day one, but I continue to shake my head whenever I see continued sales of cards that have no consideration for the precedence set by players that have come before them. The Stephen Strasburg Superfractor, which sold for a staggering $20,000 plus dollars a year or two ago has to be the epitome of this phenomenon, but buying in on Tebow, Cam Newton, and eventually Andrew Luck conjures that same acrid smell emanating from this odd frame of reference. I honestly do not understand how someone can pay close to 8 grand for a 1/1 autograph of a guy who by all accounts will never amount to the accolades of a guy like Brees or Rodgers.

Cam Newton Inception Silver Signature /25

On a similar note, now that DeMarco Murray’s season has ended due to an ankle injury that may hamper him for the rest of his career, the sales of many players who are subject to major injury every play may not be the same low(er) risk that a baseball prospect encounters. The bottom line is that due to conditioning by the manufacturers, combined with the contrived scarcity of products released each month, player collectors (including my own stupid self) have vastly overvalued rookie cards in the NFL. That is a no brainer as season after season is ended pre-maturely, and 75% of the rookie class never becoming impact producers at the pro level ever. Not every player will or can be a super bowl MVP, so I continue to question why we continue to shell out gargantuan piles of money as if they are.