Yesterday, I mentioned that Luck and RGIII were the two prospects that will dominate hobby headlines as long as performance continues to match potential. Outside of that there are a few players that have some very good potential to make a splash this year, and I wanted to give my predictions on a few of them and what they are going to accomplish this year. Value is derived from a few different factors (position, pro team, college team, potential, performance) and I think that these few guys will be the top targets for long term player collections. Whether they can match the hype is yet to be determined.
Trent Richardson
For the few games that I was able to watch, Richardson played like a complete beast. He bowled over the competition and ran with the speed that made his game very much like Adrian Peterson’s was before he was drafted. Playing in the SEC gives some top defensive competition, so he shouldnt have as much trouble adjusting to the pro game and speed of the plays. Running backs have the best opportunity to make an impact as quickly as possible because their game is more based on what they do, than any other player. On the other hand, Richardson holds a position that is becoming more and more disposable in the league, which could limit long term collectability.
Value so far:
2012 Leaf Draft Auto /99 BGS 9.5
2012 Upper Deck Base RC Auto SP
Verdict: wait until after rookie year – see how the Browns will use him
Justin Blackmon
He has drawn major comparisons to Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, but many of the scouts think he lacks the sheer speed to separate from NFL defenders. I think if Blackmon was drafted to Carolina or another poor team with a better QB, he would have a better shot at being the top guy. His raw talent will be enough to get him some production, but I think he will be eventually overshadowed by guys who have someone other than Blaine Gabbert to get him the ball. Blackmon’s status as a Jaguar severely limits his team value, and without a program like OU or Texas behind him, there isnt much other value to be derived outside of his potential. This isnt like a running back or a quarterback that has no one else to blame but himself, and overall wide receivers are usually worth a lot less than QBs and RBs.
Value so far:
2012 Leaf Draft Auto /99 BGS 9.5
2012 Upper Deck Base RC Auto SP
Verdict: Talent is there, team is not
Ryan Tannehill
Considering that Tannehill has a lot of skills, but only 19 games of QB play to show his potential, Im not convinced he has the game to be a franchise QB. Then again, that could mean little to nothing in the grand scheme of things, because you never know with these guys until you actually see them on the field. However, I do know there is absolutely no running game to speak of in Miami, and they just traded their best receiver without replacing him. Tannehill is going to have his work cut out for him.
Value so far:
Verdict: wait and see – risk is too high
Michael Floyd
When it comes to the bottom line characteristics that make a wide receiver desirable, Floyd displays almost all of them. He has speed, size, and performance in a pro-style offense, and is on a very similar level as Blackmon. Having Larry Fitzgerald alongside him is a plus for the long run, but not in the short term with how much production he will suck up. There is also a major QB question to match the fact he is a number 2 receiver, and that is a major problem. Values are low enough right now to get in on some of his cards, but its a long term thing, not a short term one.
Value so far:
Verdict: buy if you can get them at the right price
Kendall Wright
I think that having RGIII to throw to him at Baylor was a good thing, and I think that having someone like Jake Locker in Tennessee could be very similar. I like Wright’s speed and his instincts, and couple that with all of Kenny Britt’s legal trouble and you have a huge need in the Music City. He could be a big success this year for the Titans, especially with teams needing 8 in the box constantly to stop CJ2K.
Value so far:
Verdict: Like him a lot
Brandon Weeden
I am not a person that really understood taking Weeden in the first round, and I think the Browns had blinders on a bit. In a game that is as physical as this one is, Weeden’s age is going to be a problem. There are no receivers in Cleveland, and the division is VERY tough to play in. I dont see Weeden having much success, especially because it was a pick based on available QBs left than anything.
Value so far:
2012 Upper Deck Base RC Auto SP
Verdict: age is going to be a factor
Again, all of this is pure speculation based on what has been thrown around for each of the top rookies, combined with usual hobby performance. With Luck and RGIII taking up the lion’s share of 2012 value, each of these players, plus guys like Alshon Jeffery, David Wilson and Stephen Hill will need to step up their game just to get in the conversation. Luckily, there will be a large enough crop of productive skill players that will allow for a good break in the boxes themselves. If guys like Fletcher Cox, Morris Claiborne and Luke Kuechly all have ridiculous rookie campaigns, they could be great scrub autos to pull a la Patrick Peterson and Aldon Smith last year.
Overall, I am very excited for 2012.