At a National Convention about 5 years ago, a representative of one of the major card companies asked me a question that really took me by surprise. They wanted to know how to make pre-draft products better. We ended up having a long conversation about it, and at the end of it, we really didnt get to a point where either of us came out with an answer. Some of the elements of that conversation eventually became embedded in their process, but nothing really solved the eventual beating the products took on the secondary market.

The question is still valid today – what can you do about a timeframe where the NFL's place in cards really isnt center stage? Because its impossible to create a draft product that has NFL uniforms pictured, can you really ever create a set that collectors will buy through the whole year? Do companies even WANT to build a product that collectors will buy through the whole year? Is this time of year more about cashing in on offseason collector boredom, or cashing in on a top pick before the rookie premiere takes place? That’s a lot of question marks in this paragraph without many answers.

Lets start with last year’s sets, featuring a crop of rookies that was pretty nice. It wasnt 2012, but definitely a SOLID class. Most of the products can be had today at roughly half price, singles arent doing much to write home about. There are a few boxes are doing a bit better, but overall its a bloodbath. Bowman looks to be the best performing at about 66% of the original box price. That should be an indicator.

Here is the way this works every year. Basically, the pre-draft products are all released and sell meh to okay until the first main product comes out after the rookie premiere. Being that Panini has to produce 30+ products this year, not including NCAA, this might change. They might be forced to push more products before the premiere, which would only be worse, at least for pro-collectors like me.
If they continue to push more products before the time premiere photos are done, it just elongates the pre-draft portion of the calendar.

Oddly enough, I feel like Leaf has done a great job making a mockery of Panini Products during this timeframe, if not only because the sets are all hard signed. Collectors stupidly avoid the products because they arent NCAA licensed, something I dont understand. 5 autos for 80 bucks, all on card, including a shot at Tom Brady should be something everyone wants a piece of. Instead, people either decide to bust a horribly priced, rehashed 2015 Contenders sticker product or just wait for other stuff. To me, just because something is airbrushed, doesnt mean it sucks. Most of the Leaf products look awesome, and being that they are all on card, makes them more attractive to me than Panini’s sticker trash.

Check out some of the cards already released for 2016:

2016 Leaf Ultimate Draft Tom Brady Auto /3

2016 Leaf Metal Draft Jared Goff Auto Refractor

2016 Leaf Metal Draft Cardale Jones Red Refractor Auto /5

2016 Leaf Metal Draft Eziekel Elliot Blue Refractor Auto

If you are going to buy, are your standards low enough to buy Panini? I mean, there is no excuse for Stickers in pre-draft when Leaf can get them all on card. Even if some logistical nightmare is at play because of approvals or licensing, Panini cant be happy with the way their products look compared to Chrome stock hard signed material. They should wait for on card.

In fact, waiting is really what I wish would happen. Instead of putting out 5-10 sets pre-premiere, just wait. Of course, that isnt in the DNA of these companies. Panini cant afford to wait, especially with all the minimum guarantees at play. Panini bought themselves into a bad deal, with the hopes of pushing out competition. I think collectors are going to be upset with the way that turns out.

Because they have to pay CLC, NFLPA and NFLP a certain amount of money and a certain amount of releases, they cant afford to wait. That sucks for us, because all these products are being produced with one reason only – get them out the door. Quality doesnt seem to be at the forefront of their calendar, and that doesnt look to be changing. They cant even design a new look for their Contenders product, which shows me they dont believe in the product’s potential at all. If they werent planning on selling off remaining product to distros at close out prices, they would spend the time to make a new brand. Of course, as we see, that isnt a priority, because they know they cant beat the bank.

So, this brings us back to the original discussion, if collectors really dont care about these products once the year progresses, and the companies are forced to make the products for any number of reasons, what is the solution? Is it worth putting in effort when you know it isnt going to sell? I hpoe the answer is yes. Personally, I think it starts with the content. Hard signed autographs, cool inscriptions, and even potential redemptions for NFL branded cards. Get creative. Find ways to keep people engaged, or wait. If you cant do it, wait. Its not worth damaging a brand.

Here is what Panini doesnt seem to understand or cant afford to adjust. College collectors are a small niche of people, much smaller than the already shrinking hobby. I cant tell if they overpaid for CLC just to push out UD, or because they thought it would actually make money for them? I would laugh if its the latter, because they way they are treating it makes it look like they dont know their ass from their elbow.

Either way, if pre-draft Panini products in their current state were removed from the calendar, I would be shocked if anyone protested. If they actually put some quality content in there, instead of rehashed sticker shit, I would be interested to see if anything improved. Overall, I think this is a dead time of year, and any licensed company that thinks this is the answer to the hobby’s issue is really playing with fire. Let Leaf have their moment in the sun, they already do much better than what I have seen from any of the top guys.