We have all been there, and we have all muttered the two words that no one ever wants to mutter:
“NEVER AGAIN!”
Over the majority of the last 50-75 years of the sports card industry, opening packs and breaking boxes has become an integral part of being a collector. We all want to be the one to walk away with that white whale that has eluded us. Hell, that’s why many of us use the phrase “white whale” as it is that type of scenario. Pulling a nice card happens so infrequently that we created a coloquialism
.
With rising costs of wax, and content becoming more and more monotonous, questions continue to be raised surrounding the practice and its sustainability. Over the last 10 years, collectors have seen prices increase to insane levels
, and investment opportunities dwindle, and yet, here we are.
Investment and sports cards has always run hand in hand, even though I rarely equate Sports Cards with a worthwhile use of money these days. For the most part, card values and desire to collect has dropped, especially as the industry seems to repeatedly use the same formula over and over again
. Even when a concept becomes stale, card companies run it into the ground
instead of trying to bring innovation and creativity to the table. Sure, there are some novel ideas that have taken hold, but those are literally one in a million. Most ideas are horrible by the time they hit shelves
.
As the trend has shown over 2013 and 2014 especially, more and more people have become disenfranchised with the way things are going, leaving the hobby and not looking back. Because the fault lies in many different areas of the business side of the hobby, its tough to lock down even a short list of reasons. I want lack of good looking cards to be a reason, but we all know collectors will buy anything that has perceived value regardless of look
.
Despite this situation, wax prices continue to go up without delivering truly unique content, and collectors (for now) keep buying. With this being such a buyers market, the question of why people rip wax instead of just buying the cards they want continues to baffle me.
I am a collector that still breaks boxes. This is all despite the fact that my PC theme is so specific, which only makes me question my own motivations further. I have started to wonder if this desire to open is more akin to a gambling type addiction than anything, because the two seemingly run hand in hand. With 90% of boxes (if not more) ending in a large value loss
, we basically pay the dealers for the thrill of opening packs. If we hit a good card, it goes straight to eBay without a thought in many cases
. Some collectors keep things for an ever growing collection that borders on hoarding, and that’s not something to scoff at either.
Think about it like this. Gambling (as a whole) actually provides more of an opportunity to make more money when you consider house odds on many games. From what I understand, many Casinos have perfected the art of getting consumers to dump their winnings back into the pot even when they hit a big score. The only main difference between gambling in a casino and cards is that there is never a TOTAL loss of investment when opening packs. You are always left with something, even if you lose. However, with cards, its beginning to seem like people lose far more often.
The scariest part is that I am not advocating a return to the ways of old, which some older collectors say is the solution to the issue – its not. We are too far past the point of no return on that model to think that any business would be able to survive with the way things were done. Licensing costs and regulations almost make the previous model as unsustainable as the current model. Neither will work.
What I am advocating is that Sports Cards as an industry is unsustainable, and it will land us in a very tough spot as collectors for years to come. I digress, as this article is more about us than the manufacturers. If collectors continue to understand that opening boxes is a losing venture more often than not, are we as responsible as them for the decline that is going on?
With the advent of group breaks being a preferred format for more collectors to avoid large losses on breaking wax, it should be more accessible for people to buy in. Instead of that being the situation, we see that even group breaker participation seems to be dropping quickly too. It might be a combination of the people who run them and the product quality they seem to pimp, but that is an entirely different discussion.
Is the thrill of opening packs more an addiction than anything? It might be, as its clear that many people have an unabated need to keep going, despite warning signs telling them there are better ways to participate in the hobby. They want to gamble on the big hit. It goes without saying that breaking boxes is no longer needed to complete sets, which was one of the many reasons people used to do it prior to eBay.
If I am a card company, the solution might not be as evident as people think. In fact it might be located OUTSIDE the proverbial box of cards itself, more in the distribution models and formats of the products. That being said, as a collector myself, I know how hard it is to stay away. You almost have to go cold turkey, and for most of us, that is just as miserable as losing your ass on a box of cards.
For the manufacturers, the exploitation of wax breaker’s addiction is likely not at the forefront of product planning, either. They should be moving more towards the way casinos function rather than just pumping content into or away from boxes. The only win win is for them to give us just enough to get us to buy another box, while still holding enough value inside and outside the box for us to want to keep coming back.
That is the reason why casinos have giant buildings on the strip in Vegas despite a recession kicking disposable income to the curb. If Americans are continuing to save money over spending it at the highest rate since World War 2, what enticing situation can be provided to keep them coming back? Im not sure that exists in the same way for cards, and it is why I am becoming alarmingly concerned.
Bringing exclusive licenses into the mix is a prime reason why things will likely get worse rather than better. Instead of inciting competition among licensed brands, exclusive licenses use the guise of “making investments into product lines” as an excuse to be complacent and lazy. This is what we have seen with just about every exclusive that has ever been granted
. History is not a good teacher there, and collectors have been left footing the bill
SO. What to do?
Right now, we are almost powerless to make any impact, and I know that it will be tough to hear. The industry IS a sinking ship, even though the hobby will never die. Do not confuse Panini’s blank check from Italy with a license to do what ever they want. Panini Group is a business, and if they are smart they would see that spending money with no prospect of return is a horrible plan. When (not if) that happens, then what?
We see that collectors long for the nostalgia of their youth, which is why vintage cards will always have a market, even after they all die out. They will die out, as it is an inevitability. However, because value can be derived from seeing how much something is worth to SOMEONE ELSE, Vintage will remain at the top of the heap.
From our perspective, we need to figure out where the fun lies. Someone with a ton of money can break wax indiscriminately, regardless of the losses they may take. On the other hand, those whales rarely come along. Most of the people that break wax have to put their face in their palms each month their credit card bill comes due. The addiction is there, and they will keep breaking, but the point where they stop is coming near. Numbers have shown that.
We see that companies rarely hire new blood in any way shape and form. They trade horses among themselves, hoping that the person who was afraid to go out on a limb before, all of a sudden can deliver a shot in the arm. Spoiler alert – it never happens. The leadership remains the same, and they rarely allow for people to go off on their own. Panini is a perfect example of this, as many members of their team come from either Beckett (an outdated and disconnected magazine dwindling on despair), and Fleer (a company that has already gone bankrupt once). With Topps and Upper Deck already following the same path, the talent there will likely migrate as well. That spells bad news all around.
Bottom line, I realize that the last 1400 words were a basic “off the cuff” type of discussion around a common theme, but hopefully it becomes a starting point for your own internal battle with our addiction. I use the word “our” because I am right there with you. We can continually dream of a utopian card society that figures these issues out, but that is never going to happen. The only remaining point of order is how you personally will deal with it. I am challenged daily, and I would guess you are too.
Friend,
I knew you were not happy with the way the hobby was going but this post is darker than I expected. I know your comments are honest and come from your heart; however, while I agree the hobby needs to make some major changes, the state of the hobby from my perspective is well.
Card collecting and box busting is no more than a form of entertainment. A way to spend your discretionary money for enjoyment in your spare time. The occasional huge hit brings a rush, and that euphoria could become addicting for some. Like anything that results in a pleasurable sensation (fame, fortune, sex, drugs, or amassing a huge collecting) for us, that source of pleasure could become addition for some.
Recently a dentist made the news when he fired his female assistant because he found her too attractive. He said he had to fire her because he had uncontrollable desire for her. Although he never acted out his fantasies for her, he was afraid he would soon loose control and he did not want to damage his marriage. Although some people may be addicted to beautiful women, beautiful woman are not the problem.
On occasion, I’ve seen a husband get in trouble with his wife over the amount of money he spent on cards. And when his wife called him out on his spending and questioned if addiction was the issue, the husband always chose his wife over his hobby. And, that is the way it should be. Wife and family are what are most important. This is just a hobby. Like anything we spend our hard earned money on (house, clothes, food, cars, jewelry, entertainment), card collecting and box busting must be kept in perspective.
From the perspective of using your card collection as an investment, vintage cards are like Blue Chip Stock. Their value increases slowing over time. They are a safe investment. New cards are high risk and occasionally high reward. Then there is box busting, very high risk and just on a rare occasion very high reward (very similar to buying a lotto ticket). As you stated, even if you don’t hit it big, unlike a loosing lotto ticket, you always hold something of value (sometimes not much compared to the price of the box).
There is much more to card collecting than getting a huge hit. Meeting other collectors, exchanging stories, trading and buying what you really want are what truly makes this hobby enjoyable. And, getting the occasional huge hit is nice. Adam, I know none of what I said is new to you. My comments are meant for your readers.
Vintage is king!!
Awesome post. Will digest and post again tomorrow.
Great post and thank you. Yes I have an addiction for the last 40+ years. However, breaking wax has never been part of this addiction. To me it is a great hobby that for some reason I can not really stop. Turning 50 in June and it has always been a big part of my life. Not completely sure why and I guess that is where addictions start.
Mike
How do you stop then cause that part is hard. And its costing me alot right now
I found this article intentionally after taking a look at my own situation and how I too have evolved over this past few months.
I was born in 1980 and started playing tee-ball in 1984. I started collecting in 1985 and by 1987 the only thing I ever asked for was cards of paraphernalia of any kind. My dad was born in 1955 and he was a pretty massive collector back in the 60’s and 70’s. He steered me in the direction of vintage collecting, and I’m so glad he did. We regularly watched old movies and he taught me everything I knew at that time about baseball and card collecting. He took me to Cooperstown in 1990 and when Jim Palmer was inducted. As an O’s fan that was a pretty big deal for me.
Don’t get me wrong, we did speculate a little. I still have the few dozen sets of 87-92 cards that we bought in bulk. Most are relatively worthless but there are a few decent cards in those sets. Over the years, combined with the cards my dad already had, together we had amassed a formidable collection.
I left home in 1998 and didn’t return until 2013. Earlier this year my dad hauled the collection I had stored in his attic for nearly 20 years that had all but faded from my memory. Within 6 months I had gone through all ~200,000-300,000 cards individually. I didn’t bother going through the complete sets because they were already organized as I was concerned. It was a discouraging process at first because most of what I went through were 1981-1992 commons. I went through an entire print paper box full of at least 15,000 cards or more and found only 5 or 10 cards worth pulling out.
I’m glad I didn’t give up though, because after all was said and done I managed to fill about a dozen 3 ring binders with premium cards and a few with near complete sets from the late 60’s/early 70’s. I took time to brush up on what the valuable cards were, using a Beckett for modern cards and PSA for the older ones (keeping condition in mind as well). My system was to basically pull anything that was pre 1980 for archiving purposes, and anything that was not a common for further analysis to be further sifted and categorized for later review. It’s been a process but I’m finally finished. It took quite a bit of work and I actually tweaked my back from leaning over my ping pong table until 3AM constantly from the time I arrived home from work for nearly a month straight.
I’m lucky enough to have a collector shop a mile from my house. The guy in the shop told me “everything post 1985 is worthless”. Well, apparently the 3 near mint Mariano Rivera rookies in the box of mixed up 1992 Bowman’s I had in a shoe box were still pretty desirable. I just got the idea to go looking for those last night before I nearly bought one on eBay. Glad I went looking for them before I spent money.
One of the problems I’m finding I have is that I like too many cards and I need to focus my energy on something achievable. For the most part I lean towards strictly vintage cards (anything pre-1985). Most people would say pre-1972 but there are SO many amazing cards from 1973-1984 and they can’t be ignored (84 Mattingly Donruss RC, 83 Topps Gwynn RC, Young, Brett, Winfield, you all get the point).
I’ve been spending too much on cards of late, but I rationalize the purchases because I’m getting something in return for my money. I’m not cracking open packs. If I want the Jeter SP I’ll just go buy it. I’m not going to spend $1500 on a box of unopened packs in hopes that I’ll get a “hit”, although I will admit I’m getting a rush just thinking about it so I can certainly see how getting addicted to the “hunt” or “chase” is possible.
I’ve blown $1000 on miscellaneous cards over this past month but I honestly feel like I could turn around and sell virtually everything I purchased for what I paid for it, if not more.
Just make sure you buy clean cards that are desirable.
Example 1: I spent $125 on a PSA 6 Mike Schmidt rookie perfectly centered. I have a hard time believing I’m going to lose a ton of money on that one. A lot of collectors will buy a nicely centered PSA 6 over a razor sharp PSA 7 with awful centering. I’m one of those people.
Example 2: I spent $70 on a Reggie Jackson rookie card. I bought it raw and the buyer has a perfect eBay rating with an open return policy. The card has perfect centering with sharp edges and corners and a touch on the bottom corner. Besides the one bad corner the card presents itself better than a lot of 8’s on eBay, especially in regards to centering. The card will grade between a 5 and a 7. I find it hard to see losing money on this card, especially considering the amount of eye appeal it has. I chose the buy-it-now option because I couldn’t see the card lasting very long with near perfect centering.
On another note I bought a Mantle card with “perfect centering”. I found out the reason the centering was so good was because it was trimmed. It was just the 58′ AS Mantle; a relatively inexpensive Mantle card. I picked it up for $70 and knew it would grade at NM or better so long as it wasn’t trimmed. The Eddie Matthews I had of the same year had wider white borders on both the left and right sides so it was obvious to me immediately it had been altered. I contacted the seller and I’m returning it today. Lesson learned. Always ensure the seller has a return policy and a lot of feedback if you are going to buy ungraded cards, especially vintage cards.
So how are you doing today? Still attempting to collect the “monster”?
Either way you’re getting something in return for your money and the T206 is in high demand all the time so I just can’t see losing that much on purchasing these older cards. Does anybody have any horror stories in regards to losing money buying vintage cards?
I broke the addiction. But to be honest, Panini broke it for me.
For years I bought Playoff, and then Panini products. As well as the other companies, of course.
First was the redemptions. While some of them were redeemed in a timely manner, there were several that were not. For me personally, they tended to be the ones I purchased individually on ebay. And while some of those were redeemed with cards of my choosing, some were not, resulting in my getting cards I would not have even been interested in, rather then the ones I spent my limited funds on, and wanted.
Then they started with the Points program. That was the last straw for me. The redemptions were bad enough, but to now pull a card that gives me the opportunity to now spend more money on shipping, for the hit that should have been in the box in the first place, that was just too much.
So starting in 2013, I stopped buying any Panini products in pack or box form. While I still like their cards, and accept a certain risk in buying a pack or box, points were not what I collect, and I don’t want to have to go online to do ANYTHING to get the card I already paid for.
And then of course, beginning this year, they made sure there was no competition. Having the exclusive license meant now that football collectors had no choice. Either accept Panini’s faults, or walk away from buying cards in the more traditional way.
In pack and box form.
So now I collect almost exclusively on ebay. And 99% of that is single cards. So now for me, ripping is just opening the “better” mail, and nothing more.
I miss it! Dont get me wrong. I miss all the commons and the hits from all the other teams. I have binders full of hits and stars, and they stop at 2015. With the rare exception when an ebay seller sends me unwanted commons, my larger collection stops at 2015.
The last year football cards were a FUN HOBBY.