Over the last few years, Panini has rightly used the Super Bowl as a platform to clear out the shelves of their online store. The Super Bowl promo provides an encased autograph card in a one pack box when you buy one of the products they have on sale for the game. Its all the usual suspects of crap, products selling at full price despite being offered at less than dealer cost at many other outlets. The kicker is that you get one of these special boxes with each purchase, and the boxes DO have some nice hits in them.

Here are some examples from previous years:

2014 Panini Private Signings Super Bowl Rod Woodson Auto

2014 Panini Private Signings Super Bowl Jim Plunkett Auto

2014 Panini Private Signings Super Bowl Eddie George Auto

Here are this year’s cards:

2015 Panini Super Bowl Private Signings Peyton Manning Auto 1/5

2015 Panini Super Bowl Private Signings Emmitt Smith Auto 1/1

2015 Panini Super Bowl Private Signings Russell Wilson Auto 1/1

2014 Panini Super Bowl Private Signings Marshawn Lynch Auto /5

2015 Panini Super Bowl Johnny Manziel Rookie Patch Auto

Now, as they have been in previous years, the cards are all stickers, some of good players, with some huge duds mixed in. Either way, the 2015 version of these cards are pretty nice, and like last year will command some nice prices INITIALLY. Like many of the Panini promo cards, it is only going to be valuable as long as people are aware to look for them, and that only lasts for a certain amount of time. Once that time expires, the cards will drop significantly. If you are in the market for singles, wait. JUST WAIT.

As for buying boxes, the packs do add a level of allure to purchasing what I will refer to as dead product. Products that even if you pull a great card wont cover even close to the cost of the box. More importantly, if you buy any of the boxes that are still left in the promo, you are definitely going to be left behind in terms of what you are going to pull. Buying Elite at 120 bucks is going to be a bloodbath, even though it was nicer when it was released. These products are just too far past shelf life. When collectors can buy Contenders or National Treasures with this, then ill change my tune. However, with many Panini promos, its about clearing shelves, not helping collectors.

Unlike other promos though, these packs guarantee an autograph, and some of the autographs are really nice. With the National convention packs, and the Fathers day packs, you are more likely to pull shit rather than anything nice. Very much like we should expect, when Panini needs to clear their own shelves, they offer nicer stuff, rather than clearing dealer shelves on a mass scale with the Black Friday promo and the like. Because there is less product to clear, they can offer better stuff.

The 120 bucks you will spend on this, you need to hit a nice card in the promo pack or you will lose. Its pretty simple. Its not that bad of a situation though, and if you were early enough to get other boxes, it might be a better deal. I would maybe buy a box on ebay loose just to check out what you can pull. It wont be a total loss as the cards have been selling nicely. They will calm down though, so get to buying if you are thinking about it. The longer you wait, the more the cards will drop.

If there is one award that means a ton to football cards, its the offensive rookie of the year. Because so many products are rookie focused, collectors have been following along all year, and this is the culmination in a lot of ways. When the award is finally announced on Saturday night, im curious what the value reaction will be. There are a few rookies who have run to the front of the pack as finalists for the award, and I want to handicap some of the potential that they could win.

Odell Beckham Jr

Handicap: Close to a sure thing
Hobby Value: Extreme

I literally cannot remember a time where a WR commanded as much attention as Beckham commands so far in 2014. He is easily the top valued rookie in the class, and it is a direct result of his ability to make spectacular plays. His catch remains the best play of the year, and catapulted him onto the national stage where he excelled among many of the collectors’ fancy this year. Beckham is about as close to a sure thing as possible, and his card values reflect it. To think he did what he did and didnt even play a whole season? Im speechless.

Cards to chase:

2014 Contenders Odell Beckham Jr Championship Ticket Auto RC

2014 Chrome Odell Beckham Jr Auto RC

Odell Beckham Game Used 2014 Gloves – Steiner Cert

Teddy Bridgewater

Handicap: Middle of the road
Hobby Value: GOOD

I dont think many people expected Bridgewater to be the top QB in the class, especially with Johnny Manziel on the marquee when the draft started back at the beginning of the year. He posted some promising games at the end of the season, leading an embattled Vikings team steeped in controversy to a respectable 7-9 record in a tough division. Hobby wise, his value has climbed since the end of the year, with people realizing what he is all about.

Cards to chase:

2014 Contenders Teddy Bridgewater Rookie Ink Auto

2014 Topps Prime Teddy Bridgewater Auto Six Piece Booklet

2014 SP Authentic Teddy Bridgewater Auto 3 Color Patch

Mike Evans

Handicap: Top Tier
Hobby Value: GOOD

To have 1 WR be the main guy in the class is one thing. To have two WR play at a top level and maintain hobby value these days is insane in this age. Evans played for a terrible team at a devalued position, which means that his value suffered through no fault of his own. If Beckham didnt rule the last 8 weeks of the season, Evans would have a real shot at this award.

Cards to Chase:

2014 Topps Finest Mike Evans Auto RC Refractor /35

2014 Topps Chrome Mike Evans Auto RC

2013 Exquisite Mike Evans Auto XRC /99

Jeremy Hill

Handicap: Longshot
Hobby Value: BELOW AVERAGE

I really like what Jeremy Hill did for the Bengals this year. As a later round pick, he was a main reason why the Bengals had success in an offense that had its challenges. Gio Bernard struggled to get his footing late in the year, and Hill ran wild in his place. It was fun to watch, but collectors really dont care about RBs anymore. I cant tell you how much that makes me sad. Hill also has a terrible autograph, which further disinterests people.

Cards to Chase:

2014 Topps Platinum Jeremy Hill On Card Auto RC

2014 Topps Valor Jeremy Hill Auto Patch /25

2014 Topps Strata Jeremy Hill Clear Cut Auto Logo 1/1

Sammy Watkins

Handicap: Longshot
Hobby Value: GOOD

I put him on here because in the eyes of the hobby he deserves to be a finalist. Watkins was the top receiver drafted, but was arguably the fourth best of the class behind ODB, Evans and Benjamin. People have a lot more faith in him because of his college career and his potential, which will develop over the next few years. Its rare that WR have success in year one, and I dont think anyone is ready to give up on him. Even Dez Bryant didnt come on until his third year.

Cards to chase:

2014 Chrome Sammy Watkins Black Refractor Auto RC /25

2014 Contenders Sammy Watkins Championship Ticket Auto

2014 Flawless Sammy Watkins Jumbo Patch Auto

In case you missed it, here are my takes on the WORST products of 2014 so far.

Now, without further adieu, here are some thoughts on where the companies got it right. I judge most of my feelings about a set on looks, but I realize that box break is also a factor. We have had some nice products so far, and this is the time to call them out.

2014 Topps Flagship

Design Grade: A-
Break Grade: B+
Overall Grade: A-

I think that of all the recent years of Topps, this set was easily one of the best. All the main areas of the break were solid, from the parallels to the autographs. The switch away from premiere candid photos to inception style retouch work was great, and overall this was an incredibly fun break.

Evidence:

2014 Topps Rookie Premiere Auto Mike Evans RC

2014 Topps Tom Brady SP Variation Auto

2014 Topps Teddy Bridgewater 1985 Throwback Auto RC

2014 Panini Elite

Design Grade: B+
Break Grade: B+
Overall Grade: B+

I really liked Elite this year. Although some of the design work was as shoddy as ever, other parts of it were downright awesome. Adding in on card autographs with NFL uniforms similar to Topps’ concepts worked really well. The break was fun and the base design was the best it has been in years.

Evidence:

2014 Elite Johnny Manziel Acetate Auto RC

2014 Elite Odell Beckham Jr Auto RC

2014 Elite Derek Carr Auto On Card RC

2014 Topps Inception

Design Grade: A
Break Grade: B
Overall Grade: B+

Topps has really hit a homerun with this product, but it really only works in years with a good rookie class. The inscription cards are still some of the best cards released this year, and the general set continues to hold more value than it has in the past. A great looking design and look for its fourth go around.

Evidence:

2014 Inception Teddy Bridgewater Nike Logo Auto Patch 1/1

2014 Topps Inception Odell Beckham Auto Nike Tag Booklet /5

2014 Topps Inception Kelvin Benjamin Silver Signatures Auto

2014 Leaf Trinity

Design Grade: B+
Break Grade: A-
Overall Grade: A-

Inscriptions, Giant patches, glass cards, it all works on a very limited run product. I broke more Trinity than I ever have this year, and its all because the cards were so cool. Kudos to Leaf for getting an unlicensed product into the consciousness of the regular collector.

Evidence:

2014 Leaf Trinity Jeremy Hill Inscription Auto

2014 Leaf Trinity Teddy Bridgewater PURE Glass Auto

2014 Leaf Trinity Jadeveon Clowney Jumbo Patch Auto

2014 Upper Deck SP Authentic

Design Grade: A
Break Grade: B
Overall Grade: A-

If you are a college collector, this product was right in your wheelhouse. Not even a question. The cards looked like the SPA of old, and the inscription element was impressive. I think that for the first time in a long time, I saw this set for what it used to be.

Evidence:

2014 SP Authentic Jimmy Garoppolo Auto Patch Inscription Logo 1/1

2014 SP Authentic Blake Bortles Auto Patch RC

2014 SP Authentic Matthew Stafford Authentic Moments Auto

2014 Topps Finest

Design Grade: A
Break Grade: C
Overall Grade: B

I loved Finest this year, and broke a ton of it, despite the longer odds on hitting a bigger rookie autograph. The reason was that the design was awesome, and it was easily one of the better products in value when you did hit something big. The big letdown was that the base design rookie autos were stickers instead of on card this year.

Evidence:

2014 Topps Finest Blake Bortles Superfractor Auto

2014 Topps Finest Mike Evans Superfractor Jumbo Patch Auto 1/1

2014 Topps Finest Sammy Watkins XFractor Jumbo Patch Auto

There are obviously going to be some people who feel like sets such as Flawless and Contenders should be on here, but I have such hugely negative feelings about break quality vs price (Flawless) and design of the overall product (Contenders), that I didnt think they deserved credit on this list.

That being said, there are still a lot of products left on the calendar, so this list could easily change in the coming weeks. Perennial winners in Five Star, Supreme, NT and others have yet to hit shelves, so there is still a lot of football products with big aspirations. Hopefully things work out well.

In the midst of trying to stay on top of the myriad of releases that the companies have put out in football this year, I think its time to call out where they have failed so far this year. Its not always the design or the box break that does it either, but rather a combination of factors.

2014 Panini Hot Rookies

Design Grade: F
Break Grade: F
Overall Grade: F

There are no words for how bad this shit is. Hands down, Panini couldnt pay me to open boxes of this stuff, as both the design and format were horrendous. Airbrushed sideline shots, foil stamping to cover up the score logo, and colored foil are worthy of the garbage bin more than the bargain bin. They meant this to be a hobby type version of Score, but who thought that was a brand worth doubling down on? Barf.

Evidence:

2014 Panini Hot Rookies Kelvin Benjamin Auto

2014 Panini Hot Rookies Jeremy Hill Auto

2014 Panini Hot Rookies Jadeveon Clowney Auto

2014 Bowman Sterling Football

Design Grade: D
Break Grade: D-
Overall Grade: D-

This is one product that I have no clue why it is still around. Honestly just a horrible format, a horrible price, and this year a horrible design. For $250+ at release, you are given hits that can be found in boxes at a fraction of the price. Yuck. Stickers are all over this product, which makes little sense considering the other sets that have been hard signed for a cheaper price at an earlier release.

Evidence:

2014 Bowman Sterling Drew Brees Auto Red /99

2014 Bowman Sterling Odell Beckham Purple Wave Auto

2014 Bowman Sterling Mike Evans/Kelvin Benjamin Dual Relic Auto Pulsar

2014 Absolute Memorabilia

Design Grade: B
Break Grade: F
Overall Grade: D+

If you are like me, you have to be curious why Panini would think to release a set based on a type of card that no longer has any value. The jersey card has been dead for years, and yet Absolute is stuffed to the gills with them. Even the better autographs have no value, and the foil presentation does nothing for the look. The cards look good for what Absolute has delivered in the past, but trying to sell this off as a rebranding is a joke. Doesnt help that many of the autographs were sticker dumps of non-rookie players who have no business being in a product that costs as much as this crap does.

Evidence:

2014 Absolute Odell Beckham Quad Relic Auto

2014 Absolute Johnny Manziel Six Relic Tools of the Trade

2014 Absolute John Elway Ink Auto

2014 Topps Chrome Football

Design Grade: A-
Break Grade: F
Overall Grade: C-

It pains me to put this set on the list, but I cant say it wasnt one of the most dismal box breaks of the year. Because the production run was drastically increased this year, Chrome fell victim to entire case runs without any good autographs. Although the design is still awesome, and there were REALLY nice cards in the product, things just didnt bode well for one of my favorite products of the year.

Evidence:

2014 Topps Chrome Mike Evans Auto Pink Refractor /75

2014 Topps Chrome Davante Adams Gold Refractor Auto /10

2014 Topps Chrome Brandin Cooks 1985 Throwback Auto /15

2014 Panini Playbook

Design Grade: C-
Break Grade: D-
Overall Grade: D+

They took out the guaranteed booklet auto relic this year, and added a new hot rookies parallel auto for some stupid reason. Even though there were some cool cards, the box break was absolutely brutal all around. Who doesnt love opening a box and getting a hot rookies scrub auto as your hit for the box. Its not even like they added cards from a good product! How much better would Contenders preview tickets have been instead? Even more appalling are the single acetate cards which Panini thought would make good use of the acetate for the booklets signed at the premiere.

Evidence:

2014 Playbook Jimmy Garoppolo Booklet Auto Patch

2014 Playbook Teddy Bridgewater Trapped Acetate Auto

2014 Playbook Khalil Mack Hot Rookies Orange Parallel

2014 Bowman Chrome

Design Grade: B
Break Grade: F
Overall Grade: D+

This had potential with a cool looking design and a build off of a popular product from earilier in the year. Instead this was a relative sticker dump with as bad a break as Topps Chrome. Big let downs were everywhere, as Topps Chrome at least had a majority of hard signed cards with no redemptions.

Evidence:

2014 Bowman Chrome Odell Beckham Auto Refractor

2014 Bowman Chrome Teddy Bridgewater Red Refractor Auto /25

2014 Panini Prizm

Design Grade: F
Break Grade: F
Overall Grade: F

Not only were the cards uglier than the Colts offense in the AFC championship game, but it had a terrible box break to boot. The break content with 80 million parallels, and hordes of sticker scrub autos left a shit streak on the shelves of the shops that stocked it. Just a terrible product all around, selling below dealer cost almost from the get go.

Evidence:

2014 Prizm Jeremy Hill Finite Auto 1/1

2014 Prizm Demarco Murray Auto Die Cut Military Parallel

2014 Prizm Teddy Bridgewater Hippie-Fractor Auto

2014 Panini Totally Certified

Design Grade: F
Break Grade: F
Overall Grade: F

I think this should be a top contender for worst of the year and I am not kidding about that. It looks like shit, breaks like shit, and has for years. It should have been axed years ago, but Panini has no idea how to build a card release calendar, so here it is. The design of the rookie patch autos is so bad, I cant even begin to describe it. Leave it to Panini to name a set “Awesome Autographs.”

Evidence:

2014 Totally Certified Andrew Luck Awesome Autographs

2014 Totally Certified Odell Beckham Auto Rookie Patch

2014 Totally Certified Odell Beckham Auto Rookie Penmanship

Dont worry, there wasnt all bad news, and Im sure these werent the only bad products of the year. Ill be back tomorrow with my best products of the year.