Since the draft last year there have been two groups of people eagerly awaiting Bryce Harper’s exodus from the Minor Leagues up to the big league club. The first are the thousands of collectors who have been paying through the nose to pick up his cards, and the second is the the baseball product team at Topps. With a hefty exclusive contract in 2011, Topps has pegged this year as Harper’s debut, and due to the call up yesterday, the slew of Bryce Harper cards in the major league sets can commence.
Up until this point, Topps was unable to put him in a non-prospect based set under their licensing contract with MLBP. Now that he is on a 40 man roster with the Nationals, he is eligible to be in any and every set Topps produces. This is music to the ears of the invested parties, as Topps’ biggest sets of the year are still going to be released. Back in 2010, they had a similar situation with Stephen Strasburg and his call up to the majors around this same point, as he was most likely the most valuable prospect ever to have baseball cards with his picture on them. This led to the famous situation with his 1/1 superfractor, and his SSP mini in 2010 Allen and Ginter.
Check out some of the cards that his call up is effecting:
2011 Chrome Bryce Harper Red Refractor Auto /5
2011 Bowman Bryce Harper Red Parallel BP1 Auto /5
2011 Bowman Chrome Bryce Harper Aflac Auto BGS 9.5
Harper is a rare talent, and its quite obvious he will probably have some good success eventually in his career. Even though he has struggled a bit this year, the Nationals need a bat in their lineup, and his spark could give them a much needed boost with Zimmerman on the DL. If he is able to come in and play well, expect a wave of collectors to freak out, just like what happened with Strasburg’s initial success prior to his arm injury.
Mike Trout, another top prospect for the Angels is making his debut as well, and though he doesnt have the same following as Harper, his time in the bigs could also be quite productive. With Trout at 20 years old and Harper at 19, they are a new generation of young sluggers who collectors have put on another level. If everything goes to plan, they could have another 5-7 years before they hit their true peak, and at that point its already a moot point to discuss their ridiculous values now. Harper will be signing multiple times a year for the next 15 years as long as he is good, and I just dont understand how people can pay what they are right now.
Harper’s Superfractor was recently posted on eBay at a price of close to a Mercedes, and without a Major League at bat to his name, I dont think I could spend that kind of dough even if it was pocket change to me. Nothing is ever a sure thing in prospecting, and that is why the successful collectors buy the ones that are well below their value ceiling. Even if Harper and Trout come close to Albert Pujols or Evan Longoria, there isnt much room for profit. I get that there are collectors who are fans, so that is one thing, but these are not guys to buy to make money.
I also believe that this will mean huge plans for 2012 Topps Five Star Baseball, as I expect both Harper and Strasburg to play a significant role. If I am Topps, I continue to do to Harper what happened in 2010, as this is a cash cow to milk for every penny while it lasts. I bet there is a pool somewhere to see how long it takes him to blast his first home run, and also how long it will take him to wash out. For the sake of pack values I am rooting for him to do well, as there will be a lot less potential to win on boxes if he is bust.
BIG difference between Harper and Strasburg in their early Topps product appearances. Strasburg was called up in early June (not April) in 2010 so he didn’t make Topps Series 2 in time. Topps had to issue a special card in the card giveaway program and then add his series two card #661 in update packs and the yearly factory set.
This year, Harper is called up early enough that Topps should be able to get him into the normal series 2 product.
As for Trout, he made his MLB debut in 2011, so he is not making his debut in 2012. He just showed up for his first 2012 MLB game when he was in Saturday’s game.
So does this mean Harper will have a card in 2012 Topps Chrome? I would hope so, the product doesn’t go on sell until August.