With Panini taking over the exclusive in the NFL, we are in for a long and lonely road of cookie cutter products over the next few years. When one team with one vision of what a card should look like takes over an insane number they have to hit, things get repetitive. Its a way to save cost, save money, and save time coming up with new ideas. The reason I say this is because there is one question that is plaguing the card companies right now:

How do you convince a collector that THIS card is different or BETTER than the 100s of others they already have?

An auto relic is an auto relic regardless of the design. You can put different pictures, different colors, logos etc, but in the end, it isnt fundamentally different than the others that are on the market. It used to be that card and signature rarity would dictate value, but when EVERYONE of value signs 10,000 cards a year, mass dilution occurs. There are still some players that have relative rarity in their autograph, someone like Brady or Rodgers, but they are such the exception to the rule that its not even worth talking about.

So, back to the original question. If a company isnt going to innovate and create something new, how do you keep people interested? Sad thing is, secondary market values, especially in football, are dropping so quickly after a product’s release that it almost makes wax MORE unattractive to rip than it was before. Everyone knows that buying singles is the better play, but the fun of ripping into packs was always a huge draw. Now that it is becoming close to impossible to get money back on a product that is old, that “fun factor” is diminished. No one expects to make back their money on every box. As odd as that is, its the reality. However, in the same vein, no one is happy when less than 25% of the boxes net them back even close to the money they spent.

It has to do with a million different things, but one of the main ones is a lack of incentive to keep buying. If you cant sell the cards you dont want, the incentive is even less. This brings about two new questions:

1. Is there a way to better incentivize all collectors to keep ripping wax?
2. Is there a way to create artificial desire to buy more cards on the secondary market?

I believe there are answers to both questions, but the short term cost wont be cheap. Not only that, but it might not entice all those people who stopped ripping to start ripping again. Secondary market analysis is something that needs to be at the forefront of the hobby, and I only believe a few entities have the power to process that massive data. One of those entities chooses to release a monthly price guide that has no bearing in reality, and the other may not want to poke the bear.

Either way, lets try to over simplify this for the sake of a reasonable length to this post.

Solution 1 – Offer Perks for Frequent Rippers (including group breakers)

The way to do this is not the way Topps did it with the five star club. It cant be a 1% thing. It has to be accessible for the average collector who rips 10-20 boxes a year and profitable for the rippers that do 1000-2000 boxes a year.

Panini actually has a built in method of managing this situation, and it might bring them back into a normal state of satisfaction with collectors who already engage with them. Instead of stupidly using Panini Rewards in its current failure state, use it as a UPC element to every box purchased. Insert a points card in every box, at varying amounts, and make sure they DO NOT replace a hit. Every box has at least a certain amount, but rare boxes can have more.

Think about it this way. The collector who rips a box of Immaculate gets 500 points, the collector who rips a box of Score gets 25. Because the first collector spent considerably more on his box than the second, he would get considerably more points. Every box has a card, every box has as an incentive, and it would reward people over time for being a good customer. There will be jackpot boxes that can be inserted to help keep it fresh, and that’s just the start. It also gives group breakers another thing to sell, and that works too. No value is taken out of the box, only value added.

The rest of the rewards program can remain relatively the same, including the horrendous shipping costs that now applies to “swag” instead of a promised piece of content. As long as nice rewards are consistently updated, every collector can and will want to participate. Remember this is an oversimplification, and it could really go a number of different ways.

Solution 2 – Offer Chases of Specific Elements of a Product

I realize that incentivizing wax breaking is only part of the issue. So lets talk about incentivizing the secondary market. One of the main reasons why digital is so successful is because of the urgency inspired by the rare releases that are launched daily. People are fucking competitive, which means that being first and fastest to complete a set or get a rare card is a big deal.

Here is what I propose. Instead of letting the secondary market play out without influence, bump up the competition a bit.

• Offer exclusive rewards for the first X number of people to get a certain card or set.
• Offer exclusive rewards for the first X number of people to get XXX quantity of a certain card or set.
• Offer exclusive rewards for the person that can collect the most of a certain player
• Offer exclusive rewards for a season long competition of collecting X player, X team, or X type of card.
• Show a leaderboard
• Show ownership history of a card so people can see where the card has been and where their card goes when they sell it.

So, you might ask, how do you accomplish this feat? I mentioned short term cost above, and this element is where all of that cost is going to be realized. Instead of ramping up a digital product that is never really going to compete with Topps, its time to use it for something that actually creates a service. Each card will need a unique code, and there will need to be a system that tracks progress online. This wont be cheap, but some of the infrastructure is already build with Dunk and Gridiron.

Here is what this does. It creates an artificial reason for people to buy. Not just buy, but buy something they probably wouldnt normally buy in the first place. Think about how many people just buy one card of what they want. If they could get some exclusive rewards, they might buy more than they already do.  If done correctly, different product’s cards could carry different weight, and struggling products could be lifted by a spot chase that calls attention to the boxes.

There is an argument that high volume breakers would have the advantage, and just like digital, a rising tide lifts all boats. If there is all of a sudden a market for people to go into mass acquisition mode, that helps everyone who is a seller. Right now there are more sellers than buyers as soon as a product reaches the end of its buzz, and this way, there may be a lot more buyers. Not only does this improve the viability of ripping, but it helps all those people whose cards wouldnt be as valuable without it.

Again, this is an oversimplification, but if the program is setup, and the method is established, the cost of rewards, plus the cost of maintenance might be outweighed by the success of the chase. Even if Panini breaks even, the collectors are happier, and maybe the attrition wont continue to be in the double digit range. Lets face it, competition makes that auto relic that can be had in many different products a little bit more special.

The industry summit is coming up shortly, and I would guess there will be a number of people attending who arent going to be that blissful about the current state of things. Their customers are likely unhappy or mildly satisfied at best with product quality, and a new exclusive that requires a dozen extra products to be built by a company with a horrid track record probably isnt a great situation to bring to a public forum.

At least this is an idea. The most common idea is to cut products, but the league’s minimum guarantees and licensing situation would make that very difficult. Its time to start looking for solutions that fit into a market with oversaturation. If something is oversaturated, the best way to combat that is create desire for additional acquisition.