Category Archives: commentary on value

Handicapping the Next Few Weeks

Posted on by
Reply

Tomorrow, the 2nd product of the year is released in Bowman Draft, with UD Draft not far down the pipeline. I have gotten a few emails over the last weeks wondering which is a better product to buy, that is, IF you must buy one. I think at this time in the year, buying these type of products is completely stupid, unless you are a college collector or are going to flip everything right away. Regardless of current value, im going to break down pros and cons of each with the idea of answering as many of the questions I got as possible.

Bowman Draft Picks (Release 5/21/2009)

Format: Hobby and Jumbo boxes
Content: 1 auto per box in hobby, 2 in jumbo
Highlights: Signed auto patches and letters, guaranteed 1 per box in jumbo.
Price: $65 Hobby, $110 Jumbo

After opening a few packs last week at the Beanie Wells signing, the cards don’t look bad at all. The problem with Bowman Draft is that the content of this product is one base set with auto parallels, and the auto patches and that’s it. There are not any chrome, there are not any duals, and there are not even other auto sets with veterans in them based on what I saw and the checklist. On the other hand, the manuletters are signed on the letter this time, and base parallels have some real potential for early flips. If you are planning on getting a group A auto, better buy a lot as this product is loaded with no-namers, inserted at an alarming rate. But, if you do pull an A auto, you have hit the Jackpot at 1:900+ odds.

The pics on the cards are very good action shots, and I believe they do have draft day variations from my shotty memory of other people’s pulls at the party. The base inserts, which you shouldn’t really care that much about, also have some nice graphics, which is nice. Here is what I would have liked, however, as this set would be perfect for OTA and Camp TTMs. Instead of the ultra gloss coating on the cards, make them semi gloss so they don’t turn out like my Wells sig. If you see my Prestige sigs from the Premiere, they signed THAT much better for that reason.

Lastly, the pack format for hobby looks like you get 1 orange un-numbered parallel per pack, and then two to three base parallels per box. Again, these are not refractors – you will have to wait on that until july. May not be a big deal now, but with a gigantic price tag on the jumbos, it will be important.

Upper Deck Draft (Release Scheduled 5/26/2009)

Format: Hobby Boxes Only
Content: 5 autos per box
Highlights: On card autos, and many multisigned cards.
Price: $85 Hobby

When the preview for UD draft came out earlier this year, I thought the design was ten times better than last year. The main issue with UD draft will always be that it will be succeeded by other UD products that far outshine this offering, so the content was upped this time from last year’s 4 autos per box. The good news is that most of the time you have MUCH better odds at pulling nice sigs, and with 5 chances, most likely one should be a better guy from the Preimere. Of course, these cards have parallels that go all the way down to 1/1, naturally, so you may get luckier still if you manage to pull one. You also have quite a few multisigned cards from the top guys, and I believe there may even be some veteran sigs in there too – something that makes this product better 100%.

The product is not without drawbacks, as a hobby box of Draft will cost you much more than a hobby box of Bowman, so you do need to be careful. Also, the auto checklist is pretty deep, so you could end up with 5 scrubs and be down 90 bucks. I think that the potential with Draft is much better than the potential with Bowman, but the Draft Picks name with Bowman attached may be detremental to the success of this product based on Baseball’s offerings. Collectors recognize Bowman in baseball as THE rookie card to have, and I have a feeling it may transfer to draft more than it ever did before. That could hurt overall lasting value of this set.

Lastly, as the year progresses, this set will be forgotten, which puts an expiration date on your pulls. Yet, if you want a cheap way to get your player’s auto THIS is the set to buy it from. Bowman top guys will cost too much due to the shear ridiculous odds, and this set will have enough parallels to keep the price low enough for the commoners like me. I will be buying singles from this set for that reason along with the hard signed cards, and I may even splurge on a box if I can get a good deal.

Here is my verdict: If you are a set collector, buy the Bowman, it is right in your wheelhouse. If you like autos, buy the Draft, as it will provide you more bang for your buck with hard signed cards. If you have the patience, wait on both – as Heroes will be better, Icons will be better, and Classics is less than 2 months away for the first cards with rookies in their NFL jerseys. If you don’t fit into any of these categories, just buy the draft, you will be happier without a doubt. Design + 5 autos + hard signed cards + potential = Positive Stance on UD Draft.

Looking At The 2009 Class And What They Bring To The Table

Posted on by
Reply

Before each year comes along, as I have said many times before, people choose their “guys” to focus on for the upcoming year. Most of the time it’s the team you cheer for, other times it’s a prospecting move based on projected production. Based on these types of practices, here are my opinions on which of the 2009 rookies will produce the best results for the people in the second category.

Matt Stafford

I am not of the group of people who says you start an RC quarterback unless you absolutely have to. The Lions may be in that place, but I just don’t see Stafford being all that productive – yet. The Lions are still a god awful team, and although Stafford has Pettigrew and Johnson to throw to now, its not going to help when you don’t have the experience. Ryan was the exception to the rule, so don’t start putting the eggs in this basket until you see some actual stats. If he does start, expect more INTs than touchdowns, especially with the state of the Lions’ O-Line.

Mark Sanchez

The Jets are a much, much, MUCH better team than the Lions, but I still put the same predictions on Sanchez. He shouldn’t start right away, but even if he does, he wont have much to write home about. As of right now, I cannot name a single Jets WR without going to NFL.com first. That will hurt him. A lot.

Knowshon Moreno

If the Broncos still had Cutler, and they somehow managed to get Moreno too, he would be my guy to win rookie of the year for 2009. With Neckbeard at the helm, it’s a little different, though Brandon Marshall should attract a lot of attention. I expect Moreno to have a good year, and possibly still win the hardware, but its been all or nothing these last few years with RC RBs. As of now, his prices are ridiculous, but after they come down, if they come down, don’t hesitate to pick up some stuff if its within your means.

Aaron Curry

Curry could be the next Urlacher, but as a defensive player, his value will never be at the same level as the others. He also wont have many big cards outside of his rookie year, as most of the companies focus on offensive players after the first year. Curry has massive potential, and will most likely be the defensive rookie of the year, but the hobby wont notice him past a few dollars here and there.

Michael Crabtree

Crabtree, right now, is my top candidate for rookie of the year, though the Niners’ QB situation is quite scary right now. I still think that he has the tools to be on or above Johnson’s level, but without someone to throw him the ball, he wont be anywhere close. Next year when the Niners draft someone high in the first round, things may change. Oh, and just thinking about the fact that the Raiders passed him up for Heyward-Bey still makes me laugh. What idiots.

Jeremy Maclin

Brian Westbrook has been the man to stop in Philly for the last few years, but he is getting on in age and in condition. I would say Maclin should be a great target for McNabb, but he had a number of concerns with route running and other parts of his game that made him less attractive than Crabtree. I say he has an Eddie Royal type season, with some good performances, but he probably wont be the most valuable guy to keep until later in the next few years.

Percy Harvin

All I have heard over the last few weeks since the draft is that Harvin is the most explosive player in the class. Platitudes aside, I think he will be a good contributor as a 3 or even a 2, but he wont be anything special until he gets his brains behind him on the field. He seems like he has amazing talent, but just doesn’t use his head. Kind of like Randy Moss in that respect. We saw what happens when Moss applies himself. He is the best in the game. Harvin could do that, though not in the same expected production pool.

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Don’t even think he is going to be anything worth your time at first. I see Troy Williamson bust potential, but who knows, he could get lucky. I see more of DeSean Jackson’s production, at Calvin Johnson’s draft pick slot.

Chris Wells

Beanie could be the next Chris Johnson. He has amazing talent, is with a great team with a great line, and most importantly he played against more top talent in College than Brown or the other later backs in the draft. I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes the league for a Johnson style wild ride – that is – if he can stay healthy.

Regardless of who you pick, remember that you should be following the tree of position worth. More importantly, you shouldn’t pay more for a WR than you would for a RB, because in the long run, it will not be a good decision. Also, pick someone you may have a chance to get some stuff of after his rookie year. Usually the companies only pick people who they know are going to bring value to a set, and the fourth round QB you stocked up on now, probably wont have many cards. Anyone else ready for some football??

Collecting On A Budget: Getting On Board With The Top Of The Class

Posted on by
Reply

Each year a new class comes to the front of the hobby, usually there are one or two that are in the stratosphere for pricing, a middle group of people who are expensive but not overly expensive, and lastly, the scrubs. In 2007 I was faced with a whole year of collecting that top level of rookie with Peterson, but last year, Booty was, in terms of value, a scrub. This year, Harvin will probably be a mid level guy, taking in 20-30 bucks for autos after the first few games of the season, my wallet is thanking me right now. The question remains, what if you are “stuck” with the top guy in the class, but don’t have the cash? Here are some solutions I have had to incoporate into my repetoir.

First, Chrome is your best friend. You can usually buy a box for less than 50 bucks, and you can get some of the best looking base RC cards out there. Although the autos of your top guy will be scarce, you probably wont need to spend more than 5 bucks for an amazing base card. The good thing is that collectors still value chrome, so it isnt one of those, “lets throw base RCs in here because we need to fill the set” type of things. Also, parallels for chrome will also still be well received, so that will work in your favor. Of all the parallels in the hobby, this and SPA are the only ones I support. The icing on the cake is that chrome comes out early, so you don’t have to wait to long to have a keeper. After all, you could get lucky in your box.

Second, pick your battles. There is no reason to be a super collector these days, as there is no possible way to get everything. That doesn’t mean you cant pick your favorites, however. Choose a set or two that you know will be amazing from the previews and years past, and save your shit for that release. If you like Contenders, don’t waste your money on buying card after card after card. I know one of my favorite sets of the year is Classics because I know that it is the first Post RC Premiere product. The autos are just the base cards in a parallel, so I know it wont be a crappy RC subset that was an afterthought. Plus, from the previews, it looks pretty good this year. Because of my feelings, I wouldn’t buy boxes of Elite, UD Draft, or Prestige because I am a bigger fan of the later sets. Funny enough, Draft actually looks pretty good this year, so I may jump on that boat despite my Classics target.

Third, know your personal structure of value. If you want a nice card of your top guy, and know that you will only have one or two shots at an auto with the money you have, it may be in your favor to just pick the highest up on the value structure. Usually the top of the pyramid are always nice cards, and I hope that continues. Here is my list of cards to consider:

1. Exquisite Auto Patch
2. SPA Auto Patch
3. National Treasures Auto Patch
4. Chrome Base RC Auto
5. Topps Rookie Premiere Auto
6. SPX Auto Jers
7. Contenders Auto Ticket
8. UD Premier Auto Jers
9. Limited Auto Jers
10. Gridiron Gear Double Patch Auto (the one without the EU Football)

Of course, if you just want a cheap auto option and just want it to look nice, there are quite a few early DLP products with tons of subset autos to choose from, along with UD heroes and UD Icons. They wont be worth a ton, but they will look nice. Plus I believe that most of the UD products this year will be on card, if not all, so that will be good if you want something similar to the on card bonanza that happens with the top end of the scale.

Really, I cant stress enough how important it is to save up your cheese for something you need, as there is always something else you want. If you chip away at the 400 you need to pay for a top level SPA patch auto all year by throwing a few dollars aside each time you want to make a worthless buy, you will have your cash when you need it. However, if you buy junk for a year and then wonder why you are short on cash, I have an “I told you so” cocked and ready to fire.

Lastly, it comes down to watiting versus jumping the line. If you have a QB as your top guy, and you cant possibly wait one second, fine. Otherwise, QBs usually don’t start their first season, and when they do, they usually suck. However, if you wait until this reality sweeps over the line jumpers, you can usually chop 20-30 bucks off the 100 the autos usually cost. For a RB, people are obsessed with buying as many as possible, just in case there is some miniscule chance that the guy turns into Peterson. Look at Felix Jones, Jonathan Stewart, Darren McFadden, and Rashard Mendenhall, all of whose prices were astronomical beofre the season thanks to the idiots who don’t know any better. Then, as they started to show that they were still rookies, prices fell with reckless abandon. McFadden was tops to start the year, and ended up near the middle of the value pack at the end. Mendehall bottomed out and almost became a scrub. Don’t make this mistake for yourself.

Also, here is the way value will even out as the years pass. Even though a WR may be the top guy now, history shows that in the long run they wont be:

1. QB
2. RB
3. WR
4. LB
5. TE
6. DE/DL
7. CB
8. OL

Be smart, and for god’s sake, don’t be that guy.