For a long time, fake cards being sold on eBay have been a major issue. Now that the hobby has been booming for 2 years straight, eBay has decided its time to institute a program to curb the issue on expensive transactions, similar to what has been done with handbags and shoes. The problem is, the handbag and shoe industries, though popular and valuable, arent in the same place as cards right now. I want to take some time to go through the good and bad parts of this new program.

The Good

Basically, there are a lot of people spending A LOT of money on trading cards lately. Over the first half of the year, many of the card sub categories are growing at a three digit rate. Gigantic growth. That also means a lot of new people, who dont have a fucking clue what they are doing, buying cards they know little to nothing about. Because so few people actually do homework before buying, or dont know how to do homework before buying, eBay wants to give some protection.

This means for people who are buying 750 dollar items and higher, ungraded, they will have to have the card authenticated by eBay’s partnership with CSG. Now, for cards that are REGULARLY faked, like Michael Jordan RCs, old Pokemon cards, etc, everyone will know for sure if the card is real before losing any money on buying a fake.

There is value in this, especially for vintage cards, who are prime targets for both alteration and forgery.

In about 200 words, I just explained the good. As you can imagine, there is a lot more to discuss.

The Bad

Take a look at your personal collection. How many of those cards have you acquired in the last 2 years? How many of them are now worth over 750 dollars? A few years ago, that percentage was quite smaller than it is now. If any of them are raw cards, they will need to be authenticated before being sold. That is a fucking huge amount of items.

Even though graded cards dominate the high dollar sales on ebay, right now there are close to 25000 raw cards over 750 dollars that will need to be authenticated – JUST IN THE NBA CATEGORY ALONE. 12,000 have sold in the NBA category recently. In the future, all of these cards will need to be sent to CSG and authenticated prior to being shipped to the customer who buys them. This begs a number of questions, most of which have expected answers on the FAQ, but are laughably vague about what happens when things inevitably fall behind. They are promising short turn arounds, but how likely is that to hold up with the sheer volume of cards that will now be headed their way? How will that impact the queue of backlog they have to get cards graded? Will they have to hire more staff to get this done? How educated and well versed will these people be? What happens when they undoubtedly make mistakes?

There are just so many giant fucking issues with the assembly line here, and I think its hilarious that eBay just decided without any warning that this was going to be a thing. I have heard that there are a number of sellers who are moving off of the platform knowing that they will have to deal with this shit show, especially after the threshold is dropped from $750 to much lower in the future.

So many conflicts of interest already exist with in the grading process and authentication process that are further exacerbated by this whole process. Was this the result of a lobbying effort to require grading before a card is sold on eBay all together? Given the state of the industry, the current grading process is slow, expensive, and requires a willing suspension of belief that there isnt a giant game that many submitters play to enhance their prospects of achieving a higher grade.

Now that grading your cards is going to practically be required, what happens when you dont have access to the fast lane process that some people have with PSA, BGS, and the like? We have already seen one major group sub king go down a very nasty path that has left a number of collectors without their cards and owing money to get them back.

Ebay knows that many are a captive audience to selling cards on their site, which has led to sweeping decisions like this in the past. Too many to list. However, they arent without major competition now. PWCC has opened their own auction site after being banned from selling on eBay due to shill bidding issues, and facebook has been growing to be one of the largest card markets on the face of the earth. Curious if a mass exodus starts with programs that make it harder to sell, rather than easier.

The Ugly

Since the early 2000s, eBay has made it a point to value the sanctity of their buyers over their sellers. Whether it was removing negative feedback capabilities on transactions, higher fees, to return policy changes, everything eBay has done favors their buyers. Massive changes have driven me from selling on their platform, mostly related to the ease of selling other places. This just solidifies my desire to never return, as I do not grade cards, nor participate in selling them.

More importantly, this policy may offer SLIGHT relief from the lowest level of informed buyer, but it does not do a single thing for people who use their platform to sell. In fact, it will delay shipments to buyers, it will increase time before money is received from sales, and more importantly add headaches for sellers to now have to ship cards to a third party who is already overwhelmed and understaffed.

For some that were running auctions this week, the policy now impacts all sales in scope – regardless of when the auction started. There was no warning or anything that was told to sellers ahead of time to determine if they might want to choose a different path.

Additionally, what happens when CSG is out of their depth in reviewing a specific card? Test prints, rare oddballs and other factors could potentially damage a seller’s ability to achieve full sale amount for their card. If a card cannot be verified by the authentication team, it looks like there are penalties for sellers. A simple mistake or miscalculation could have disastrous effects.

I havent even gotten into the thousands of sellers on eBay who make money buying and flipping cards on a quick basis. Buying a player they feel will spike given a certain circumstance, and then flipping the card when he does? All but inviting returns and buyer’s remorse.

Bottom line, there are only very small populations of cards that need this guarantee. Although it was successful with shoes, the need to authenticate a modern NT RPA of a mid tier player is worthless. If the card is up for sale from that part of the hobby, its almost assuredly real, and does not need a guarantee. This might not be the case for things like a 1986 Jordan RC, or a vintage gem, but that shouldnt dictate the rules for all cards that have no business needing authentication.

Overall, I think the grading business is a cesspool of manipulation, gaming the system, and giant conflicts of interest. Forcing sellers down that path with a backlog in the millions, extreme cost to get grading done quickly, and other factors is a complete fucking nightmare.

Over the last 22 years, the hobby has moved almost entirely online, with most in person interactions still having a lot of major aspects dominated by a presence on the internet. The fact that you are reading this post means you understand that, and it should be expected that you do.

All that being said, there are thousands of new collectors joining the hobby each week, and for the majority of them, being a part of the community is a foreign concept. Its not easy to be indoctrinated either, there are a lot of nuances and challenges to existing without being labeled or ostracized. I wanted to put this together as a feeble, yet comprehensive guide to joining up. Its not going to get into the tiny minutiae of everything, but hopefully enough for people to get started.

I have recently done business (both successfully and unsuccessfully) with very new people to the community, and some are savvy enough to get it on their own. Others, not so much. I wanted to give them a link to a guide, so I thought that this would be the best way to accomplish it. Who knows, maybe some of the established people can add their suggestions or learn a bit themselves too!

If you want to read about something specifically – use cntrl+F because this is going to get long. I dont expect anyone to sit down and read this, but hopefully you can use this link to help new people to your groups or individual businesses.

Getting Started Online

There are a few main places that every collector should familiarize themselves with. These are the main online hubs of the hobby and everyone should absolutely have a presence on all of them, even if you dont plan on using them frequently. Ill get more into the hubs in depth later on, but this is the starting point.

eBay – If you are unfamiliar with what eBay is all about at this point, that’s pretty shocking. However, many people dont have a lot of good context on how to do multiple things to accomplish goals. Ebay can be as much about buying and selling, as it is about tracking value and being able to sense market trends. If you arent on eBay to at least find a good idea of what you have and what you want, start there.

Twitter – For the most part, the hobby community growth started in two places back in 2015. One was Instagram, and the other was Facebook. Twitter has become a place for people with a different mindset, more focused on collecting and chatting rather than moving cards. If you follow me (@SCUncensored) there, and follow who I follow, I have a good mix of people.

Instagram – Its not shocking that a photo focused application would be the new home of sharing your collecting. Originally it was photobucket, followed by any number of photo sharing apps. Now its all about flex culture and its all on Instagram. The culture is its own little world, but you can immediately start to look at certain hashtags to see who the biggest influencers are.

Facebook – I stayed away from this hub early on, mainly because it can be the wild west. Tens of thousands of people all doing things their own way gets overwhelming. The more you can get familiarized with the facebook culture, the easier it will be to find places to engage across the hobby. There will be a whole section on Facebook down the page, but its time to start getting back on and figuring out if you want to be a cowboy in this game, or just an observer.

Breakers.tv – Ill get into Group Breaks later on, but this rudimentary hub has become a great place to figure out what is going on and when. Breakers set up here and either fill breaks through the channels or through the chats. Im not going to give a full rundown in the intro, but this is a place to check out and create an account. Even if you arent going to participate, group breaks drive a HUGE portion of the hobby.

Valuation Apps – tracking value in the hobby can be both difficult and hard to understand. A new trend is getting established around APIs that are plugged into many different platforms to track sales of specific cards. Apps like CardLadder were just acquired to help Collector’s Universe bring this to their portfolio. Ill dive into grading further down, but I would check this out just to see how investors get their information.

Breaking Apps – There are now a number of applications that offer breaks on demand, mostly like a virtual cardshop or a group break atmosphere. Most feature lots of vendors who take payment through these apps and can give you access to products and wax. The two most common are WhatNot and Loupe, and can be downloaded from the app store. If you dont have a shop near you, this is a great way to get product into your hands easily.

COMC.com – A giant online single card hub that offers millions of cards for sale and can hold them for you to resell or ship to your house. A number of other services are offered, but this is a one stop shop for a lot of buying and selling that is likely the largest dedicated selling platform outside of eBay.

Message Boards – As you might expect there are a ton of message boards out there and many are community specific. The larger ones like Blowout Cards Message Boards are easily accessible, and easy to join. Go search them out.

Finding Your Community and Getting Established

Now that you see the hubs, there are a ton of wonderful communities out there to join. Most of them are either housed on specific websites dedicated to a part of the hobby, or through groups on facebook. Ill use Facebook as an example, because it is usually the one that is the most difficult to get established. On the platform, you can search for groups based on what you are looking to do. From there, you can request membership, and see if they will accept you into their group.

At that point, its important to get established. Read the rules of the community, usually posted in a very prominent spot. If you cant find it, go to an admin and ask for the rules. Its best to be a model of good behavior at the start, so that people wont assign undue suspicion to your membership. After you figure out what to do and not to do, read through some of the posts, comment as you feel applicable, and start establishing your brand. Its probably best to wait on diving into selling and flaunting goods until you have been around for a while, but sometimes thats the best way to get involved.

On platforms like twitter and instagram, search out like minded people and engage with them. The best way to do this is to start with official news sources or trusted community members and follow who they follow. If you were brought into the hobby by a friend, ask for some suggestions. Otherwise, just use the search bars on any platform and find someone with a ton of followers. Then just look at who they follow and start weaving a web. To get followers of your own, you will need to bring value to the community, either through insight or showing off your goods. I started commenting on people’s posts and chatting with them across many different topics. Some were more willing to mentor than others, so be conscious of what role they play in the community if they are an individual.

Outside of that, connect with the manufacturers. Topps, Panini, Upper Deck, Leaf and others all have official accounts, so its good to see how they work with the community as a whole too.

Lastly, start reading, watching and learning. Go on youtube and watch breaks. Try to figure out what drives people in the hobby to go and do what they do. There are a ton of resources out there, and some are better than others. Make sure to try to separate the best educators from the lesser ones to avoid content that isn’t relevant.

Payments

Before you get started with any presence, you will need a way to get cash to people and receive. I would suggest getting online with PayPal, which is the most widely used form of payment. Go to Paypal.com and set up your account and link a card and a bank account as soon as you can. It will take some time to get you to a point where Paypal will recognize you as a seller and a buyer, so you will need to establish yourself. Buying and selling online cannot be something you go from zero to 100 miles per hour.

Establishing Your Profile – First, add a bank and a credit card. I would feel absolutely comfortable with this in Paypal. Other apps like Venmo as well. Outside of that, my trust is limited. Similarly, add a shipping profile to your Paypal account that will function as your home base. All information will take time for them to confirm, so you need to do this now, even if you arent expecting payments in the future. They will need to make sure your address is real, and likely confirm a bank account is actually there. Credit cards are easier to verify through some of these apps, but its not instant. Do NOT add information that is different than what you will use to buy and sell.

Types of Payment – There are two types of Payment in/out in the hobby, and both have their benefits and challenges associated. They are broken down into the following – buyer protected payments and fee avoidance payments. Paypal can support both types, but most of the other apps have only limited availability for any buyer protected. Paypal offers a payment called goods and services, which means that there is expectations that the seller will be transacting business with the money. This usually includes a small percentage of fees that are provided to paypal that come out of the final number. So if you send 100 dollars G&S, the seller may only receive 97 dollars. As a result, the seller and buyer also have access to dispute resolution, which means the buyers can reclaim the cash if something doesnt go as planned. The other type of payment is Friends and Family, which is a fee-free method of payment. Basically, its the equivalent of handing cash to another individual. No one pays fees, but there is also no dispute resolution. Venmo, CashApp, FacebookPay, all have this method, and it should only be used in trustworthy situations.

Buyer Protected Payment Limitations and Benefits – The reason most hubs and groups require payment in PayPal goods is because of this. Sometimes abbreviated (G&S) this makes sure there is accountability in most transactions. Its not FULL protection, but at least there is SOME. Sending G&S does not mean you are guaranteed anything. Receiving payments through G&S does not mean you are free from responsibility. Unfortunately, Paypal also recognized a few things for 2022. If you receive more than $600 dollars to your account, a tax form will be generated. This means that all profits are subject to income tax, leading to a need for more tracking of purchases and tax forms to ensure that the government gets the right cut. Paypal used to have a MUCH higher threshold, but the boom of the collectibles industry has put pressure on them from a number of places to make buyers get their taxes done more appropriately. As I get into buying and selling more in depth, ill mention its important to track your stuff. This is a main reason.

Fee Avoidance Payments Limitations and Benefits – As a collector, be prepared to be asked for this type of payment more and more frequently now that taxation enforcement by PayPal has changed so drastically. BE VERY, VERRRRRRY careful with this type of payment as a whole. You should treat this like you are handing money to someone, and NEVER send any money you cant afford to lose. Reputations are so important in this hobby, but things happen. If someone requests Venmo or CashApp, and wont take G&S, there needs to be additional questions you ask. Is this person established enough to trust them? Do they have something to lose if the transaction does not go as planned. There are a lot of people that have indeed established themselves as worthy of Paypal F&F or Venmo, as they have enough to lose if they walk away with your payment.

Etiquette Around Payment Types – When you send as goods, it automatically assigns a shipment profile that you have set up in Paypal. That’s why that is so important to do BEFORE all this goes down. Some sellers may ask you to cover the fees they have to pay, this is understood and worth it. Some sellers wont request. Dont be taken aback if you are asked to cover or provide payment in “Net” – which means you pay enough to get them what they want. For the fee-free payments, make sure to send them your shipping address along with payment so they know where to ship. There is no ship profile that is attached when you send through this method.

Preparing Yourself to Sell Cards

There are a few different things you need to be prepared for as you begin to consider selling cards online. You need a way to show what you have, a way to receive payments, a way to protect the sold cards, and supplies to ship to the buyer. Ill cover each of them.

Showcasing Your Item – Find a way to take a good picture of your card. Well lit, clear, and able to be zoomed. The photos should highlight a few areas to ensure the buyer has a good understanding of the card’s condition. Edges, corners, surface and centering are all important in Grading, so photos should make an effort to be clear on those areas. If its low value, there might be more wiggle room, but the higher the value, the more important it is to get high quality photos. I would consider a light box or a specific light designed for this if you plan on selling frequently. They are inexpensive and make a bunch of difference.

Receiving Payments – If you sell, there are two things you need to understand. First, If its hard to pay you, the deal could fall through. Second, you wont get your money TODAY, likely. So be prepared to wait. Ebay will handle all of this automatically through your selling portal, but Paypal will require you to get established before they will release G&S payments to you without hold up. Venmo and Cashapp will be easier to cash out of, but few people will give those payments to you as a new seller.

Protecting Cards You Are Selling – Every card you ship needs protection of some sort. DO NOT try to sell cards you cant protect. It will give your buyers a lot of heartburn and likely disputes if the card doesnt arrive safely. Top loaders and penny sleeves are available at a local shop or on Amazon, and should be purchased immediately. Some higher end cards may requrie magnetic hard cases or “mags” to ensure that nothing is damaged. Again, look on Amazon or at a local shop. Low value cards still require protection, do not take a low value as a situation that precludes you from it. As a seller, YOU are responsible for protection, not the USPS, not anyone else but you. If it gets to the buyer and it is at all damaged, that’s on you.

Shipping Supplies – All shipments should be sent in padded mailers, unless you have advertised that it will be sent in a plain white envelope or “PWE.” Padded mailers are available at Target, Walmart or the post office, so you can get them very easily. Bulk orders are often easy. Once you have protected the card, you need to secure it, which means adding tape to the protective case and likely buying a supply of soft baggies called “team bags” to ensure the card stays in the case when you ship it.

Tracking – It is essential to ensure the buyer has a way to track the shipment of the cards. You need to provide this information immediately, and likely a picture of the package you are sending as well. This is a major part of dispute resolution, should something go wrong. If someone provides tracking to you, and it doesnt move on the website in a reasonable amount of time (a day or two), that’s when you need to get in contact with people.

Labels – Paypal has a function that you can print off an official postage label for USPS on your home printer. Go to the multi-order shipping link on the right hand side of the account page. From there you can purchase all sorts of postage and just get some scotch tape to affix the label to the package you are shipping. SUPER convenient, and then you can just go to a post office and drop it off. Ebay uses this functionality to print labels too, so make sure you get familiar with how to do it. Search on youtube for a step by step video of how to do it if you need to.

Actually Posting Your Sale Online

There are a few ways to sell cards, outside of just posting an item on eBay. Ill try to break down the benefits and limitations of each.

eBay – Biggest audience, but also the most rigor around the rules for selling something. You will be required to set price, provide payment application, and ship securely. As complicated as it seems, there are a million videos to watch that show how to do this effectively, and it will likely get your card the most eyes. Its also ripe with ways to be scammed, but not as much as other methods. Im not going to get into the common ways here, but there is a level of care that needs to be considered.

Facebook – this is the wild west as mentioned above, as most sales are done through the marketplace (I dont recommend), or through community groups that set their own rules of engagement. I have done more business through facebook over the last few years than I ever have in years past. I will say, it takes longer to get established and prove you are trust worthy. If you have a high demand item, some of that might be able to be done more quickly. Ill get more into Facebook in a second, but this is a quick and easy way to sell stuff to a large audience as well. Because rules are set individually, its easy to find a platform to sell with the rules you want. The problem is, Facebook is probably the most scam ridden cesspool on the planet, so be exceptionally careful dealing with people who arent established.

COMC.com – This one is a bit unique, but there are a ton of instruction and help available to assist. Go on their website and follow the instructions, the process is slower, but they handle so much of the risk that it is beyond awesome once you the hang of it. From a scam perspective, COMC is likely one of the most secure selling platforms on the planet, but you sacrifice speed to get it.

Private Auction Houses – If you are lucky enough to have something of extreme value, places like Goldin Auctions and Hertiage Auctions are a place to consider. Its all done through consignment, but there is little risk due to the security of the platform. Im not sure I would sell something above 5 figures outside of one of these places. Its worth the money.

Determining Value for Your Sale/Purchase – WHAT IS MY ITEM WORTH?

This is going to be something that many people will never agree on, but its important if you are going to do any business online. Gone are the days of price guides and static value, replaced with a much more stock market type volatility that needs to be considered on a real-time basis. Right now, because of the way the hobby functions, value is dynamic and can change so frequently, your head will spin. So, how do you figure out what to do with your card you want to buy or sell? Here are the plusses and minuses of multiple ways to do it.

eBay Completed Listings – I have always said that something is only as valuable as what someone else will pay for it. Lucky for us, we get that in spades with the sold listings on eBay. If your item is common enough, you can likely find comparative value, or “comps” on eBay. DO NOT confuse sold price with listed price. People will list things for crazy amounts, but they will never sell. Look at similar listings and similar cards, understanding that trading, buying and selling online is usually a negotiation, not a set price. In the last few years, eBay has limited access to certain final values achieved through their best offer feature, so use a site like 130point.com to get the actual numbers if they arent shown. Again, there are so many ways to figure out what your item is worth, you will likely have to piece it together from a number of data points.

Valuation apps – If you want a graphical representation of value over time there are now investment apps to showcase it. Card Ladder is one of the more relevant ones, which show ebay values, auction house values and other sales in a graph to show market trends. There are also indexes to give larger hobby value trajectory as well.

Ask the Audience – If you are on one of the community hubs, you can easily just ask opinions. Again, take everything with a grain of salt until you know what you are doing, but asking well established people on Twitter or Instagram will likely get you another reference point.

Key Reference Points – Here is how I look at value. First, you want to find the exact card you have and match sales if possible. I usually start with eBay and search the person’s name, the set name, and the year. So if I have a Mike Trout Topps RC PSA 10, Im going to search 2011 Trout Topps RC PSA 10. If I want to get more specific, add in the card number. on the back in the top left corner. The next reference point is time. I want to find the most relevant and most recent sale. If a card is rare, like a serially numbered card out of 10, I might try to find a similar card of a similar player or one in a more readily available parallel. So if I have a Lebron James auto /10, I can likely compare to someone like Steph Curry or Michael Jordan even. Otherwise, I can see what the parallel that is numbered out of 25 sold for, and add some money. I may even search Lebron James autograph /10 on google and see if I can find anyone who has posted one on Instagram or Google, and ask them. Its always better to err on the high side and accept a lower offer than sell for less than something is worth by a crazy degree.

In the end, value is a guess. Finding value to buy or sell something is an acquired skill and something many collectors are rarely good at without a ton of work. Find a buddy you can trust and make sure to get opinions as best you can.

Setting a Price – If you determine a value, its best to figure out the best format to sell it in. Price setting will depend on this first and foremost. I like to set a value at 25% above my expected return and take offers. That way I know exactly what I am going to get and nothing less. Other times, especially on a highly desirable piece to run an auction. You can put it on eBay at .99 cents and let it ride. The problem is you might not get what you want for the card, or you may get even more. There are a lot of reasons to use both, but in the end, its about final value. One will be guaranteed, the other not. One could get you a larger return than expected, the other not.

It is best to avoid pricing something at a GIANT price more than 50-100% above expected cost on any platform, as it will discourage buyers from dealing with you. Similarly, you need to avoid sending offers that are 10% of the expected cost as a buyer and expecting people to take you seriously.

Sending Offers – There are a few things to consider. One MAKE SURE YOU HAVE THE FUNDS before you agree on a price. If you dont have the money, then dont even try. Most sellers expect payment immediately, and they have every right to be upset if you dont follow suit. Facebook is awful for this. You will agree on a price and someone will say they cant pay until XXXX date. DONT BE THIS GUY. Additionally, consider your competition, because the strength of your offer needs to be representative of how many competitive buyers there are. A low offer with a premium item may get you blocked. Lastly, be intelligent about your language. Most people expect complete sentences and well thought out discussion, not vague texts from a burner phone. Showing that you are serious is as much about the way you present yourself as it is your offer. A high offer from a newbie might not be as trustworthy or worthy of consideration as a lower offer from a well presented established vet.

Online Breaks and Group Breaks

If you are new to the hobby, online breaking of packs, boxes or cases are everywhere. They drive a huge portion of revenue for the hobby and exist across a ton of platforms. Here is a quick rundown of how to make the most of this part of your new hobby existence.

Group Break Basics

A group break is a way for multiple people to shoulder the cost of unopened product, instead of one person. There are a few different formats, and each has benefits and limitations. Cost will also vary across each platform, so Ill do my best to explain.

Understanding Costs – As a basic concept, each group break has a basic formula. See this simplified chart. Its all factored into each break, and there should be some transparency. Some breaks are done for fun, others are run by a business. There are levels of profit that need to be factored in for each case, and some are assumed.

Type 1 – Pick Your Team / Player / Division / Etc: For this type of group break, each person selects a category of slot they want, and they get all the cards for that category. If you are in a pick your team case break, the group breaker will open all the boxes on camera, and if a card is pulled for your team, its expected to be shipped to you. The better the cards from that team in the break, the more expensive the cost. For example, the Yankees will be more expensive than the Brewers, unless the Brewers have a huge value card that is possible to get.

Type 2 – Random Team / Player / Division / Etc: For this type of group break, you do not get to select the team ahead of time, and the breaker will randomly assign one through their process advertised on the site. All slots cost the same, because everyone should have equal chance at getting what they want. For example, you will purchase one slot that consists of a unit or multiple units of a specific thing. If you had a random divisional break in the NFL, the break costs would be split into six slots and each slot would get a division. You may randomly be assigned the NFC East, and any card from a team in that division is yours.

Type 3 – Draft Your Slot: This can be a draft your team, draft your player, draft your hit, or even something like draft your pack or box. In this type, there will be a randomized draft order that allows for you to draft the advertised unit according to the prospect of something nice, or what has actually come out of the wax. For example, in a draft your hit, the breaker will open all the product, and the first pick will get to choose the best card from the break. It will then go through the next slots until everyone has picked. Usually all slots in this break are the same, but sometimes specific slots will be offered for more, if there is more prospective value. For instance, a breaker can sell the number 1 draft slot for more than the other randomed slots.

Type 4 – Serial Number: In this format, there are serial numbered cards in almost every product. A breaker will usually say the break slots correspond to the left side serial number 0-9. That means for every serial number card corresponding to the random number you receive, you will get that card. For example if you are randomly assigned #4, cards numbered 4/10, 14/25, 64/99 etc will all be yours. Some fillers are like this as well, and ill explain that next.

For group breaks, questions are usually encouraged, but so many breakers have a lot spelled out on their sites or breaker pages on the platform. Make sure to read closely and figure out the best method to participate. If you are only collecting a certain player or team, those Pick your XXXX type of break might be a great opportunity for you to get what you need without shouldering the cost of an entire case. Make sure to read the format before you buy in, especially how much product is involved. More product means more cost, but not always.

Understanding Breaker Tactics – FILLERS: As expected, not every break will always be easy to fill, especially for high cost products. Many breakers will use specific tactics to fill those unsold slots by combining them with desirable slots as what is called a filler. Collectors will have a chance to join a filler as a break within the break, mainly assigning random unsold teams to any number of slots. For example, if a breaker has 3 unsold teams, plus a desirable team, they will combine the four teams’ cost, divide by 4 and offer four slots to interested collectors. Because the desirable slot is usually expensive, collectors will gamble on receiving a less desirable slot to get the better one. Its best to watch this in action a few times before you buy in.

Buying Into Group Breaks: Most breakers have their own site, but there isnt a platform that consolidates them all into one marketplace. Usually you have to go and find them on social media and join up with their schedule to figure out when and where the breaks go down. You can also search “Sports Card Group Breaks” on google, or ask around for the top breakers. Many do gigantic amounts of scheduled breaks every year and you can easily find breaks available in multiple formats for every single product released. High value and high demand slots will be bought up fast, so be prepared to figure out when slots are made available if you want the best stuff.

What to Avoid: As imagined, there are large scale breakers out there, and also tons of smaller scale breakers, especially on social media. Make sure to follow along with a breaker before trusting them with your stuff. Every year there are tons of scams out there, and group breaks on Facebook can be a great source of new unsuspecting people. I would make sure to go to the largest breakers before diving into collectors hosting one of breaks until you get a feel of what to look for.

Other Major Suggestions

Establish a brand: Figure out the place you want to occupy in this hobby and focus your efforts and learning to get that to a point of pride. Brand is hugely important in this hobby, and its not a bad idea to see how influencers in other industries establish themselves – if thats what you want to do.

Observe before participating: This tactic is so important in this hobby and so few people actually try to crawl and walk before they run. Watch as much content as you can before driving yourself crazy learning multiple things at once. The more you can observe the more you will figure out how to engage.

Avoid FOMO: So much of this hobby is built around two tactics, Flexing and FOMO. People flex their goods and show off, which leads others to have a fear of missing out. This leads to unreasonable expectations and terrible experiences when you fall short of the previous goals.

Educate yourself: For most collectors, a lack of education or experience can be unfathomably detrimental to their presence and experience. Its better to find others in your position and learn with them, as well as find those already at goal and learn from them. The more you can learn the more dangerous you can be in this place.

========================

That’s all for now, more will be added here in the future as time permits.

Third party authentication and grading has been around for decades. It has also been a frequent target of mine because the service element of the model is so insanely ripe with conflicts of interest. When a service that is built around trust and expertise has no accountability and no regulation, and functions solely as a vehicle to make money, it shouldn’t be put on a pedestal as a gold standard. Yet, here we are.

Today, Logan Paul posted a video that confirmed what many had already started to suspect – the sealed case of first edition Pokemon cards were fake. Now, this is likely far from the first time that a sealed and authenticated item has been proven to be something other than what it was presented to be. On the other hand, this might be the most high profile version of it, and a black eye for what was a very respected expert in the space. More importantly, it goes to reinforce most of what I have said on this site for almost 15 years – the entire third party grading/authentication business is only as good as the people’s avoidance of scandal. More importantly, Logan Paul is a recent entrant into the hobby in general, and was acting on advice from other high profile hobbyists who were acting on advice from some other people, who may or may not have been duped themselves.

You know what all of this says about Logan Paul? Nothing. You know what it says about the hobby’s general trust for people who do this work? A lot.

Like people trust PSA, BGS, and other companies as authorities, and add value to collectibles as a result, the same can be said about Baseball Card Exchange (BBCE). They are the foremost authenticator of sealed product in the world. They are trusted. They are experts as perceived by the people that use their service. However, they fell FLAT on their fucking face here. Not just because they were wrong, but because they chose money over due diligence. They chose to honor the words of people who stood to make six figures on the deal, rather than referring them to someone who knew what they were doing. They wanted to be involved with the highest profile Pokemon deal in history, over admitting that they lacked proper information to make an informed decision.

Here is their response, posted on the BBCE facebook page:

If you go back through all the scandals that have befallen this part of the hobby, and there are MANY, each of them follow the exact same path. A business, masquerading as a service, offers advice and imparts value on an item, regardless if their resulting opinion is accurate or informed. Sometimes its both, sometimes its one or the other, sometimes its neither. Regardless, there is no grading review body, or authentication review body, so the market tends to decide if they are worthy of continuing to hold a spot as a worthwhile participant in the cycle.

Historically, stakes were always high, but never high profile. Stakes were expensive, but not this expensive. Now, there are decisions being made daily that can impact lives, businesses, and reputations all on the shoulders of a third party being paid for an opinion with no accountability or transparency behind it.

For many years, authenticating signatures, wax, and other collectibles has been big business, despite the fact that most of the main companies behind it have been targeted by authorities or indicted on federal fraud charges. This was before the hobby exploded, and before there were authentications and grades done in the millions of items each month. Similarly, just because the scale has changed, the giant conflicts of interest that existed then, still exist today. If anything, they have become more evident and important due to volume and value alone.

The companies will say that a market reaction is the only accountability they need, but this shows how far from the truth that is. It also showcases that maybe the people with the most to gain, also have the most to lose. To be frank, when new people enter a market with everything to gain and also everything to lose, weird shit seems to happen. This was the largest sale in Pokemon history, but it is preceded by two years of record breaking numbers representative of a speculative bubble.

Seeing that Logan Paul felt comfortable enough to spend 3.5 million dollars on this process is only representative of one thing, he was duped as much by the misrepresentation of a service as he was by the people involved. Watching his video, as well as the hundreds of Pokemon collectors who were speculating that this was fake all along, shows how out of their depth BBCE was. They didnt even do the simplest of research that others could do without even being in the room. Being that they KNEW the importance of this case, only further exemplifies the conflicts of interest that exist in the process.

I have written no less than a million words on the dastardly grading business and its lack of true accountability, but this one just makes my point in short youtube video. Enjoy the world we live in now, because it gets more and more complicated by the day.

The last two years of trading cards has been historic. First, a value boom of epic proportion has brought trading cards and sports collectibles to the forefront of the national conversation. Then, as if things couldnt get more crazy, Fanatics secured a deal with the three biggest leagues to have exclusive licensing rights for 20(!!) years. Now, we have come to find out that Topps has been acquired, putting them at the top of the card mountain for the foreseeable future. Funny thing is, I dont even think we are close to being done. I want to look at this acquisition from the different sides of the hobby and industry.

Impact to the Industry

Fanatics’ entry into trading cards is a new era, and that hasnt changed since the announcement a few months ago. The problem for Fanatics wasnt money or distribution, but the people needed to design and deliver the massive amounts of content needed for a trading card company. For people to expect Fanatics to just come up with a plethora of new brands that would continue with the hobby’s current trajectory is relatively laughable. They needed people, they needed intellectual property, they needed a crew. With Topps, they not only got all of that, but they got some of the best there is.

Flagship Topps baseball is a historic legacy that needed to continue. The hobby was in jeopardy of losing that history when Fanatics stepped in, and thankfully we arent going to lose the iconic aspect of that again. I doubt there were many industry professionals that wanted to see the end of Topps’ place in that part of the trading card world. Its rare that you have 70 years of history just wiped away, and this merger prevented that from happening.

In buying Topps, Fanatics also gains access to some of the top card designers around. Topps, for the most part, has brought together a collection of people that all have the chops to do what needs to be done. I believe when Upper Deck lost their licenses back around 2009-2010, Topps went and signed those people up. Since that time frame, the best looking cards in the industry have undoubtedly been on the Topps side of the equation. That’s why I have always gravitated towards their goods. Its not saying Panini and Upper Deck havent made improvements since that time, but Topps remains the benchmark.

Additionally, Topps has a digital division that might be unmatched across the entirety of the industry. With the recent inclusion of NFTs to their portfolio, it has only gotten stronger. We know that Fanatics sees digital cards as a huge frontier, and I think that of all the assets out there to buy, Topps is most mature.

This doesnt look like the last of Fanatics’ desire to consolidate, especially given what Michael Rubin has stated in different interviews since the announcement was made. I fully expect we start to hear more and more about this type of M&A pretty regularly as we get closer to 2023 and beyond. If consolidation is the plan, we could easily see them target more card companies that have staff and IP to give. I believe Panini is likely off the table now that Topps is under the Fanatics umbrella, but a company like Upper Deck still seems very attractive. Sets like Exquisite and SPA are still among the most valuable IP out there, because newer collectors have seen Jordan, LeBron and Kobe stuff shoot to the moon from those products. Similarly, the contracts with Jordan, Lebron and Tiger are all insanely valuable, especially because pro-uniform autographs are non-existent since the lost license to Panini took effect.

Impact to the Hobby

I have been a staunch critic of exclusive licenses since the first one was signed. However, now that the exclusives are here to stay for the next 20 plus years, there isnt much we can do. This feels different because of the length of time, and the potential to buy out companies that will bring their IP to an exclusive. Instead of locking people out, its possible we see Fanatics M&A plan work to the advantage of the collector. Owning these giant licenses for such a gargantuan length of time breeds new need to negotiate.

We all know that from their press release, the plan is to use the Topps name on products going forward. Good thing. We also should get collector favorites in NFL and NBA that have been gone for YEARS. Another good thing. The chance to continue collecting products around since we were kids? Yup, good thing. Is it possible that Fanatics buys the IP or ability to license it for their use given the timeframe of their relationship with the leagues? Who knows? All big question marks that we need to have sorted out over the next few years.

Similarly, we saw that the press release also mentioned Hobby Shops in their language, something that a number of pundits were wondering about. No one wants to see a neighborhood shop close their doors, most are family run, and some have been around since the last collecting boom in the 90s. If Fanatics buying Topps means they get to stick around? I love it.

There are aspects of the hobby I hope will change with this consolidation plan, as Ive mentioned in previous posts. I dont like that online retailers and distributors can collude to fix prices. They can artificially set a floor or raise a ceiling without much effort, and due to limited supply and overwhelming demand, right now there are no consequences. If Fanatics is going to remove that from their model, I think that’s a good idea. Similarly, Topps comes with baked in people that have decades of experience in this part of the industry. Im curious if this plan changes to accommodate the relationships Topps brings to the table. For collectors, this might be the most challenging part of the acquisition to understand, but its one that could hurt us the most. There are people in power right now that have exponential influence over a speculative bubble that seems to have formed. If Fanatics truly wants to move on from the way things are done today, this is the one thing I hope will change.

Where Do We Go From Here?

The next 4 years are going to be a whirlwind of change. Change in the way people look at cards, the values, and what Fanatics plans to do with their vision.

As mentioned, I think the M&A continues to a very high degree. I also believe that we arent done hearing about card company acquisitions into the Fanatics family of products. Upper Deck seems like the next logical choice, given their IP and ePack. If Michael Rubin’s philosophy of increasing access to product and going mainstream, they will need all the help they can get. Its a big vision to make work in practice.

Peripheral hobby businesses like COMC might be on the menu too. Fulfillment is a huge deal, especially for single card shipments, so this could be something that Fanatics wants to include in their plan. Same goes for things like group breaks or general crowd sourcing of product. All those things are on a white board somewhere, surely.

Lastly is the grading, and I think thats where this gets very complicated. Fanatics is climbing a mountain to get to a consolidated retail empire. Collector’s Universe (PSA) is climbing the same mountain on the grading and valuation side, acquiring businesses like Card Ladder and the like. I could see Fanatics take over Beckett to get BGS, and that might be as big a deal as getting Upper Deck under their watch.

Either way, this is going to be one of the most fun times we have seen in the hobby, ever. Hope you guys are ready!