A big piece of news was released today, despite being a part of the running commentary for a while now. Topps announced that they had extended their exclusive agreement with MLBP through 2025, which means that no other companies will be able to produced licensed MLB trading cards for at least another 7 years.

Because this is going to stir up a whole bunch of shit, I wanted to offer my long form reaction, rather than just typing it out on twitter one tweet at a time. Being that there are two sides to this, its worth discussing both what the impact is from a collector perspective and a more behind the scenes perspective. Obviously, most people only care that Topps is going to be the only game in town for another long period of time, and not necessarily what that could mean for the periphery.

I can sum the first part of this perspective up pretty simply. As a collector, this news sucks. It just does.

Not only will collector favorites like Upper Deck continue to sit on the sidelines, but its going to perpetuate a lot of the existing trends that have been widely criticized across the hobby. Collectors want variety, I want variety, and we should be upset that this is the way things are. All four leagues have been under exclusives since 2015, and that isnt going away. It seems to stifle progress, risk taking, and all sorts of other shit, which doesnt bode well for onboarding new collectors. The card companies seem to just go with what they feel is working, and rely more on the star power present in the latest rookie class than anything else.

There is very little progress, similarly, towards the next big thing, of which I felt was digital collecting up until about a year and a half ago. There is very little incentive publicly to move the ball forward, at least from what we see, and not a lot of transparency as to what is coming down the pike.

Overall, a lack of competition is something that I have always hated, and continue to hate. Its not good for anyone, as its clear that Topps in MLB, or Panini in the NBA / NFL produce exclusively what everyone wants. We want to see Topps Chrome Football, Upper Deck SPA and Exquisite Basketball, and Flawless Baseball. It would be a great thing to have an environment where more collectors could speak with their wallets more effectively.

What people dont really seem to understand is that the leagues want the exclusives as much as the companies want to be the recipients of said exclusives. Cards seem to be more of a necessary evil for the major sports, and they definitely enjoy not having to navigate a very complicated market that is occupied by 3-4 licensees. They want to focus on the other things that generate more money, and leave the complexity outside of the agreements. Similarly, it allows them more flexibility interally, and the ability to be prescriptive with the company that owns the exclusive. They want control over their intellectual property and proprietary business, and its easier to do that through one company than many. If cards generated more money, and the business dictated more competition would bring tons more to the table, they may consider it. I dont think that is the case outside of World Cup stickers, however.

So, blaming Topps for the new exclusive agreement isnt necessarily misplaced aggression, but they are also not the only piece to this puzzle. More importantly, outside of product development and product management – the place where most of the community vitriol is directed – the exclusive does give a lot of power for investing in things that enables better products to be made. The product teams need to execute there, but the exclusive as a protective investment is important there.

Basically, player relationships, retailer engagement, collector programs, marketing, and inventory generation and control all benefit from a long term exclusive agreement. Topps can and has dedicated more funds to these areas, if not only because they know the license is theirs to hold. Panini has actually done a VERY good job with this on the NFL side, even though my opinion of their product execution remains about the same.

Things that make a better product are many, and a lot of them depend on some of these investments behind the scenes to ensure the money they pour into the business actually produces a strong ROI. Obviously when that translates into the product teams, there are going to be mixed results, as always. Before the exclusive market took over the card industry, shit still went wrong – A LOT. That is just part of the way things are, and I doubt that would change, even if split licenses came back.

Shitty products or production errors are as common in sports cards now as they ever have been. I guess that’s more a knock on progress to a greater ideal, but I also dont believe that a lack of incentive prevented progress there. It may not have promoted said progress, but its not like it wouldnt happen either.

Overall, we know that the Industry is starting to bounce back now, and doing so on a pretty consistent clip. That progress hasnt gone unnoticed by the manufacturers, and its a big reason why we should expect them to stay quiet when the leagues continue to want to do business on an exclusive level. They dont want to stifle that progress in their own business, nor lose the favor with each of the leagues they work with.

Even more than that, if we know the leagues want exclusivity, we should consider what might happen if someone like Topps doesnt get this done. Topps has the longest running business in cards, and is the only company with any real place in the public consciousness with cards. Upper Deck is there too, but they arent as relevant these days. If Topps doesnt get this exclusive, the business would likely go to Panini, exclusively. There was some rumors of a split license back a year ago, but the discussion doesnt seem to have been anything more than that. If you dont like what Topps is doing with baseball, are you similarly comfortable with them being completely gone as well? Hell fucking no. Topps is baseball cards, and you are kidding yourself if you believe that isnt the case. I mean, 99.99% of the US population hears Panini and thinks of a grilled sandwich. That’s not good for anyone.

We shouldnt give up the fight to end this practice, and the only way for that to happen is to continue to engage directly on every level of the industry. This means talking directly to the manufacturers, the distributors, and surely your local shop owners and breakers. They have power as much as you do, and your feedback does get reviewed. You may not hear a direct response, but it doesnt fall as much on deaf ears as you might think. Business things like this exclusive arrangement are likely not going to be up for discussion, but the way you engage with and purchase products are always worth a review.

Net net, go through how you engage with the hobby and the industry and find what works for you. If this means you are done with cards, sorry to see you go. If this means you find a more balanced approach, that’s fine too. Overall, its time to come to terms with the fact that the exclusives are here for the foreseeable future, and we will have to deal with it. Its not a collecting utopia, but its also far from the worst thing that could happen.

Hey guys, ‘member when the Strasburg Supefractor sold for $25k and we all went nuts? Hey guys, ‘member when everyone was saying the Ohtani Superfractor would sell for $65k and we all were left wondering how that could happen? Well guys, its time we all start to look at the recent sale of the Mike Trout superfractor at a reported $400k tag, and realize none of that other stuff matters. This is the big dog, and in all likelihood, it may never happen again.

Trout is the best player in baseball over the last decade, and its not even close to a competition. His sabermetric stats are off the charts, and what’s even more insane is that they seem to be getting better not worse. Yes, friends, Mike Trout hasnt reached the summit yet, and when he does, im not sure what more will be said.

Honestly, I think this sale says less about Mike Trout and more about the ceiling that exists on modern cards in the hobby today. There are really only a handful of players that can sniff this range, and its pretty clear who they are. Michael Jordan, Lebron James, Tom Brady, and Mike Trout. That’s about it. I think there are certain arguments that can be made for other players, but that’s a very small list of titans to be reviewed.

Modern cards survive on contrived scarcity combined with BGS introducing hyper-mint grading services to the industry. Without those two things, there isnt a discussion about cards like this Mike Trout. For vintage, the cards that are worthy of a safe at Ft. Knox are much more about condition and age, as well as the fact that almost all the benchmarks are one of a few in a given market. The players are all dead, which means that there wont be off the field incidents that will tarnish their legacy, or even injuries that can end a career. All that will be said has already been said in some capacity, and there is comfort in collecting that way for many people.

Vintage will forever be the gold standard, and though Mike Trout’s card is like a pit bull in a sea of puppies, it will never live up to the best examples from the pre-war and post war eras. There was a recent sale of a 2.5 million dollar Mantle recently, including some speculation that one other may be in the 10 million dollar range. That’s Honus Wagner type company, and that’s saying something.

As said above, this sale should tell you that no matter how good some modern player is, or how insane his rookie card might be, its still not close to the best of the best. It will never be close. Not sure if that is more crazy than sad, but maybe a little of both.

When Topps Now first started, I dont think many of us expected it to usher in a new type of producing cards that would be anything close to impactful. Its crazy to think how much has changed since that time, with Topps almost rewriting the hobby perspective from scratch. Not only have Topps Now cards become a highly collectible brand, but they have ushered in more on demand printed “products” that have been impressively successful.

The most recent one is the Topps Living set, and the results speak for themselves:

2018 Topps Living Set – First 12 Cards

2018 Topps Living Set Ian Happ Base Card

2018 Topps Living Set Nick Markakis Base Card

2018 Topps Living Set Joe Panik Base Card

Here is how it works. Topps releases a set of players periodically, and print as many cards as are ordered. This means some cards have huge runs, like the Ohtani, while others do not. The recent release of Braves rookie Acuna hit a peak of 45k plus, which is more than I would have ever thought possible in a format like this. This has been going on since the start of the season, and should continue indefinitely. Being that baseball is still one of the only sports where set collecting is a huge attraction, you can see where the idea would have taken off from.

More impressive than the print count on some of the cards, is the money some are paying for cards that have lower runs. Right now, as more people join into the hunt due to rising popularity, the low run cards will be tougher and tougher to get your hands on. Demand will far exceed supply, and prices wont go down. Im curious why it has taken people so long to catch on, but we are now at a point where the value is no longer a secret.

I love this idea, and hope Topps decides its worth expanding in a similar way to how they have done Topps Now. Autographs and relic versions, with expansion to other sports would be great. Im actually shocked that it hasnt gone that direction already, considering how much extra money could be made. Collectors have already latched on dramatically to the Topps now autographed versions, and adding new lines to the living set without compromising the original idea could be a great possibility.

Considering that no one else has really figured out on demand printing in the same way Topps has, Im waiting for Panini to start going down this direction with their knockoff Instant brand cards. I have already said that direct to collector sales strategies need to be amped up across the board, and from what I can tell, this is a tremendous benefit to that strategy type. We need more of this and soon, as it gives access to cards for collectors who dont live near card shops and dont trust retail outlets to have any integrity around the card aisle.

Hopefully this continues to be a worthwhile strategy, and it doesnt stop with the Living Set.

I fucking love the NFL draft. Because of the intrigue, drama and wheeling/dealing, the event has become a spectacle. Unlike many other spectacles, this is one that i watch almost beginning to end. The major challenge with watching the draft and being a collector at the same time, is that I automatically think of hobby implications every time anyone is drafted. Here are some of my reactions seeing what happened last night.

THE ENTIRE FUCKING FOOTBALL CARD COLLECTING POPULATION – WINNER

Everyone celebrate! I said Celebrate dammit! There were 5 QBs taken during the first round, and hot damn that is like Christmas in April. The hobby loves QBs because they tend to be the only part of the collective in Football that has any type of career longevity. Running Backs and WRs have become disposable, and though we see the hype with Saquon Barkley, his hype is only as good as his age. Sometimes you have an exception like Adrian Peterson or Ladanian Tomlinson, but for the most part, all the RBs drafted in 2007 and 2008 save Beast Mode are gone. He already retired once. QBs are the currency by which we live our collecting lives, and seeing this being the year of the QB is a feast of riches I am desperately looking forward to.

Baker Mayfield – Winner and Loser

Other than Barkley, the former Heisman winner is the top rookie in the class in terms of value. His celebrity only adds to the fact that he went number 1 overall, and its crazy to think that this is the way it all worked out. For months leading up to the draft, Mayfield wasnt even slated in the first round in some mocks, and that is just the beginning. Somehow, the Browns thought he was worth shooting for the moon, and the rest will have to wait for October. Aside from my feelings on Mayfield, going number 1 is a great thing for the hobby. Its always good for the most popular players to go 1 and 2, which is exactly what happened. The reason I said this was a loser for Mayfield fans is that Cleveland is a graveyard of terrible decisions. Its not good that he is going to Cleveland, and though they were making some moves over the offseason, its still fucking Cleveland. At least he recreated the famous Favre pic, which was a completely awesome move. I love that, for sure.

Since going #1, his cards have spiked significantly. No one was really expecting the pick until that night:

2018 Contenders Draft Baker Mayfield Cracked Ice Auto /23

2018 Leaf Metal Baker Mayfield Blue Refractor Auto /50

2018 Score Baker Mayfield Green Auto /6

Saquon Barkley – Winner

Great player, going to a good but not great team that was destroyed by injury last year. He will have a lot of weapons around him, and that means he will see a lot of production he maybe wouldnt normally get. The only issue is that we saw the type of production out of Kamara and Fournette, among others, and the hobby doesnt really seem to reward it. Barkley could be different, but odds are that he wont be. Lets just enjoy the value while we can.

Josh Allen – Loser

I wasnt high on Allen to begin with, for many reasons. Seeing that he dropped from being the potential top pick to ending up at 7, isnt good. Diggers uncovered some pretty damaging tweets from when he was in high school day of the draft, and it may have impacted which teams were willing to bank the next few years on his integrity. Allen in Buffalo has a good team around him, one that made the playoffs last year. Im curious how this works out, because of all the QBs drafted yesterday, he has a lot of potential to be a bust.

Joe Flacco – Loser

When the Ravens traded back up into the 32nd pick, Flacco had to be squirming like he just threw five picks in a playoff game. Lamar Jackson may not be the top rated prospect ever drafted, but this was a clear signal that Flacco’s time in Baltimore is just about over. Think Alex Smith in KC last year, and look what happened. I like the pick, as it is almost no risk for the Ravens. His contract will be tiny, you have Jackson for 5 years under control, and if he flames out, it wasnt like you spent a ton to get him.

Calvin Ridley – Winner

Getting drafted to play along side Julio and Matt Ryan in Atlanta? Holy shit, good for him. Alabama players always have a lot of collectors following them around, but this could end up being one of the better picks of last night. Traditionally, WRs just never have very much value in the hobby, but I wont be shocked if Ridley has a great start to his career just because of his talent and new team dynamic.

Patriots Collectors – TBD

Really thought they were going to take the heir apparent to Brady. Instead they drafted Sony Michel, who should automatically drop 25% in value across the hobby. Belichick doesnt use RBs like the rest of the league, and as a result, already reduced value for RBs should be doubly so for Michel. He will either get a ton of touches or too sporadic of a production line to maintain any true collecting hype. That being said, with Mason Rudolph and Kyle Lauletta still on the board, they may use one of their day 2 picks to shore up the position and groom a guy similar to what happened with new hobby darling Jimmy Garoppolo. If they do draft a QB tonight, look for that value to skyrocket. Collectors like to expect lightning to strike twice with Pats backup QBs, even though for every Jimmy Garoppolo, there is a Ryan Mallett to match.

The later rounds tend to be where shit goes down and goes down with a crazy amount of fun, so keep an eye out for guys like Derrius Guice, Nick Chubb, Courtland Sutton and the rest of the QB class to come off the board. This is going to be awesome, and I cant wait to see how it plays out.

Its Bowman release day, which means that baseball collectors all over the world are busy mining for OhtaniCoin all day. With his hot start, and his historical significance of playing both Pitcher and DH, it becomes a very interesting decision of how some people are going to want to approach this year’s product.

Check out these initial listings, they are not for the feint of heart:

2018 Bowman Chrome Shohei Ohtani Atomic Auto RC /100 – No way this gets paid for, but still fun to see

2018 Bowman Chrome Shohei Ohtani Atomic Auto RC /100 – Example 2 – Again, kinda crazy to see, but not realistic

2018 Bowman Chrome Shohei Ohtani Blue Auto RC /150 – Not realistic. More crazy than the others.

Here are the ones that look more appropriate:

2018 Bowman Chrome Shohei Ohtani Base Auto RC

2018 Bowman Chrome Shohei Ohtani Base Auto RC – Example 2

I dont think that the question is whether or not spending the money is worth it. We have come to understand that 9/10 times things dont end up finishing the way they started. Pitchers are especially challenging, as we know that when (not if) Tommy John happens, some players are never the same. Ohtani is a bit different because of his hitting skills, and Im actually curious to see if the Angels keep him on the mound.

That being said, prospecting players at the top of the mountain is a VERY dangerous game. I think that the majority of the hobby fails to understand that prospecting rarely even plays in the space that most people expect it to. More importantly, using cards as an investment is a horrible idea, especially when you see what real investments can do when understanding the market is a talent of an individual.

Ever since Albert Pujols, the prospecting game has become a way of life for many people, some well before that. Albert Pujols was the first of the modern day prospect big boys, and it has been a chase to find the next momentous player ever since. Funny enough, the Bowman era encompasses a number of future hall of famers, but only a handful have really been blockbusters.

That begs the most important question here – should we really be buying Ohtani at anything above comparable value? Lets use Clayton Kershaw as a good example of the best of the best, because he definitely fits the bill. Not only that, but his Bowman cards are among the most valuable for any pitcher in the modern era. That includes Strasburg, whose original hype was very similar in nature to this year.

Lets say Ohtani base autos settle in around 2-3 thousand, if not lower. That puts him in line with where a nice graded example of a Kershaw might land with the right situation. Kershaw is widely regarded as one of, if not THE best, pitcher in the league. Not only that, but he has done it for a number of years, on a popular team, and doesnt show any signs of slowing down.

Its worth mentioning that Ohtani’s international fans will inflate value artificially, just because of what always ends up happening with a limited crop of players and even fewer ones that are truly good. Factoring that in, what does Ohtani have to do for him to remain at Kershaw levels? Quite a bit from a comparative records type of situation. Kershaw has multiple Cy Youngs, an MVP (AS A PITCHER!), and some advanced stats that make his 2.36 career ERA look even better.

Comparatively, that’s a tough pair of shoes to fill. Hype trains have a way of keeping people on board with high values long after they deserve it, so that could also be a factor. I mean, how long has Andrew Luck had crazy numbers in football, despite a down 2 or 3 years? People just love hype. Look at Stanton, look at Judge, look at all the guys who have celebrity above and beyond their playing accomplishments.

Lets look at hitting too, as Ohtani might end up being great there too. Hitting and pitching combined is where we could reach Ichiro levels of extended value, combining the international crowd with the hype and extended playing results. Ichiro never had Bowman cards because of a UD exclusive, but if he did, they would likely be pretty hardcore in terms of value.

Again, the problem is, Ichiro may go down as one of the best pure hitters of all time, along with a tremendous fielding career to match. I doubt anyone will reach that level for decades if ever, and like Kershaw, they are big shoes to fill.

So, lets say he is somewhere in the middle, combining both talents – just how hard is that to do? It hasnt been done really, since the pre-war era. That’s what people are buying into, but they are also expecting that he reaches even a portion of the potential he has been playing to. Pretty big risk for such a high amount of cash.

That’s why many veteran prospectors arent touching players like this. Players that start of out of the gate as a fucking meteor, and tend to cool off from there. Funny enough, last year’s hype with Aaron Judge may have been a great example of where things can get truly crazy. Judge was pretty inexpensive for a few years as he made his way through the Yankees’ system. When he got up to the big leagues, and started mashing, his base Bowman autos soared. Collectors that were in at 25-50 a card, now had 1000 plus on their hands. Some were just lucky Yankees fans, others were prospectors who were sitting on potential unrecognized.

Ohtani just doesnt fit that model, and really isnt even in the same area code as any real prospect since Strasburg or Harper. Although Harper has developed into a superstar, Strasburg ended up falling well short of expectations due to injury early on in his career.

I understand that for people that have the money and are Angels fans, its hard to stay away. I would be very much in that bucket, for sure. I always post stuff like this when the train gets rolling, but that wont stop anyone from busting boxes at exorbitant prices to chase down the cards. Now with Group Breakers in the mix as well, all of a sudden, it becomes much easier to feed the beast.

Topps has actually gotten extremely lucky with so many huge prospect players back to back, and that is VERY good for the hobby. VERY good. Im not complaining one bit about that. The more we have of stuff like this, the better it is. A rising tide floats all boats. Im just curious to see how many people who are going to spend the thousands actually understand the humongous risk that comparative value is showing to be present.