At a National Convention about 5 years ago, a representative of one of the major card companies asked me a question that really took me by surprise. They wanted to know how to make pre-draft products better. We ended up having a long conversation about it, and at the end of it, we really didnt get to a point where either of us came out with an answer. Some of the elements of that conversation eventually became embedded in their process, but nothing really solved the eventual beating the products took on the secondary market.

The question is still valid today – what can you do about a timeframe where the NFL's place in cards really isnt center stage? Because its impossible to create a draft product that has NFL uniforms pictured, can you really ever create a set that collectors will buy through the whole year? Do companies even WANT to build a product that collectors will buy through the whole year? Is this time of year more about cashing in on offseason collector boredom, or cashing in on a top pick before the rookie premiere takes place? That’s a lot of question marks in this paragraph without many answers.

Lets start with last year’s sets, featuring a crop of rookies that was pretty nice. It wasnt 2012, but definitely a SOLID class. Most of the products can be had today at roughly half price, singles arent doing much to write home about. There are a few boxes are doing a bit better, but overall its a bloodbath. Bowman looks to be the best performing at about 66% of the original box price. That should be an indicator.

Here is the way this works every year. Basically, the pre-draft products are all released and sell meh to okay until the first main product comes out after the rookie premiere. Being that Panini has to produce 30+ products this year, not including NCAA, this might change. They might be forced to push more products before the premiere, which would only be worse, at least for pro-collectors like me.
If they continue to push more products before the time premiere photos are done, it just elongates the pre-draft portion of the calendar.

Oddly enough, I feel like Leaf has done a great job making a mockery of Panini Products during this timeframe, if not only because the sets are all hard signed. Collectors stupidly avoid the products because they arent NCAA licensed, something I dont understand. 5 autos for 80 bucks, all on card, including a shot at Tom Brady should be something everyone wants a piece of. Instead, people either decide to bust a horribly priced, rehashed 2015 Contenders sticker product or just wait for other stuff. To me, just because something is airbrushed, doesnt mean it sucks. Most of the Leaf products look awesome, and being that they are all on card, makes them more attractive to me than Panini’s sticker trash.

Check out some of the cards already released for 2016:

2016 Leaf Ultimate Draft Tom Brady Auto /3

2016 Leaf Metal Draft Jared Goff Auto Refractor

2016 Leaf Metal Draft Cardale Jones Red Refractor Auto /5

2016 Leaf Metal Draft Eziekel Elliot Blue Refractor Auto

If you are going to buy, are your standards low enough to buy Panini? I mean, there is no excuse for Stickers in pre-draft when Leaf can get them all on card. Even if some logistical nightmare is at play because of approvals or licensing, Panini cant be happy with the way their products look compared to Chrome stock hard signed material. They should wait for on card.

In fact, waiting is really what I wish would happen. Instead of putting out 5-10 sets pre-premiere, just wait. Of course, that isnt in the DNA of these companies. Panini cant afford to wait, especially with all the minimum guarantees at play. Panini bought themselves into a bad deal, with the hopes of pushing out competition. I think collectors are going to be upset with the way that turns out.

Because they have to pay CLC, NFLPA and NFLP a certain amount of money and a certain amount of releases, they cant afford to wait. That sucks for us, because all these products are being produced with one reason only – get them out the door. Quality doesnt seem to be at the forefront of their calendar, and that doesnt look to be changing. They cant even design a new look for their Contenders product, which shows me they dont believe in the product’s potential at all. If they werent planning on selling off remaining product to distros at close out prices, they would spend the time to make a new brand. Of course, as we see, that isnt a priority, because they know they cant beat the bank.

So, this brings us back to the original discussion, if collectors really dont care about these products once the year progresses, and the companies are forced to make the products for any number of reasons, what is the solution? Is it worth putting in effort when you know it isnt going to sell? I hpoe the answer is yes. Personally, I think it starts with the content. Hard signed autographs, cool inscriptions, and even potential redemptions for NFL branded cards. Get creative. Find ways to keep people engaged, or wait. If you cant do it, wait. Its not worth damaging a brand.

Here is what Panini doesnt seem to understand or cant afford to adjust. College collectors are a small niche of people, much smaller than the already shrinking hobby. I cant tell if they overpaid for CLC just to push out UD, or because they thought it would actually make money for them? I would laugh if its the latter, because they way they are treating it makes it look like they dont know their ass from their elbow.

Either way, if pre-draft Panini products in their current state were removed from the calendar, I would be shocked if anyone protested. If they actually put some quality content in there, instead of rehashed sticker shit, I would be interested to see if anything improved. Overall, I think this is a dead time of year, and any licensed company that thinks this is the answer to the hobby’s issue is really playing with fire. Let Leaf have their moment in the sun, they already do much better than what I have seen from any of the top guys.

Lets be real here. Should we be shocked that Panini is making like a recently dumped girlfriend and using their spoon to get every last drop out of that empty ice cream container that was its previous product cache? Classics is back, and not because its a good idea, or because people demanded it, its because Panini needs to make more products than they can handle.

Classics was slightly relevant prior, as it used to be the first set released with pro-uniforms for the rookie premiere attendees. Not so much anymore. Now its just stickers and junk.

2010 Classics Dez Bryant RC Auto BGS 9.5

2009 Classics Clay Matthews RC Auto PSA 10

2001 Classics Joe Montana Auto

2010 Classics Tony Romo Sunday's Best Auto Patch

I really dont need to say much, because this junk is structured like a product that should be retail only, but because of the new NFL exclusive, we get the absolute mind-blowing joy of seeing it in football.

Funny enough, the design of the card might have been simple and nice, but Panini had to turd it up with after-effects that are beyond annoying. Take away the dot pattern and slight blur on the background, and dont tile the team name, and its a retro look. A retro look that closely resembles 1983 Topps, but a look none-the-less.

The one concerning thing is that Panini is only inserting 1 autograph per box, which shows that they are trying to draw focus away from that type of content. Its possible their deals wont be set up to handle enough content to flood 31 products, which might not be horrible. That is until your one autograph is a fourth round linebacker from Blue Mountain State.

Either way, this product is going to be in the bargain bin by the time August rolls around, so dont even bother.

Here are the pictures:

For both Football and Basketball, I understand why Panini went the direction they did with Luxe. The framed autographs from Topps have been insanely popular, so why not rip them off? Unfortunately for everyone, when you rip something off, like Panini does FREQUENTLY, it rarely turns out as well as the original. In the case of Luxe, it pretty much flopped in Basketball, mainly because no one really saw the appeal. Im guessing Panini felt they could turn the brand around in football, but now that we see the results, its clear that was a bad choice.

2015 Panini Luxe Marcus Mariota Gold Frame Auto Patch /25

2015 Panini Luxe Andrew Luck Gold Frame Auto Patch /5

2015 Panini Luxe James Harrison SB Continuity Autograph

2015 Panini Luxe Jameis Winston Gold Frame Auto Patch /25

2015 Panini Luxe Dan Marino Die Cut Auto /10

The main issues with Luxe, aside from the name of the set, is the condition of the cards and the checklist. Gambling on a box of Luxe is pretty much the hobby equivalent of gambling on a fart. Either way, you are going to end up with something smelly and potentially worse. Plus, who in their right mind names a product something that rhymes with “sucks?” Waaaaaaaaaay too easy there.

Starting with the worst part of this whole things, the cards and frames in this set are beat to fucking hell. Its so unusual to find a frame that looks good, especially when they are the color parallels. Most of frames suffer a horrible fate. Paint is peeling off, its dented, card is popping out, I have seen it all. For a product that costs as much as Luxe does, this condition is inexcusable. Not just inexcusable, but bush league.

After seeing so few people outside of group breakers bust Black Gold because of a weak checklist, seeing Luxe’s checklist is a second strike. The usual firepower we see in many high end products is absent, leaving shitty rookies and shitty veterans to populate the majority of the readily available checklist. Brady and Luck are there, with a few of the normal legends, but you have a better chance of getting a 9.5 on a framed Luxe auto than getting one of those guys. There are so many bad autographs to be had. So many. Have fun with Vince Mayle, Aaron Dobson and garbage autos like that. The good stuff seems to be MUUUUUUUUCH more short printed than it should be in a crazy expensive high end set.

Products like this make me curious what they were thinking taking on so much for 2016. Its obvious the football team cant pull new products out of their ass unless they go balls deep in the Basketball team, so what are they going to do? I hope everyone is excited for the return of every defunct product Panini football has ever made, because they dont have the chops to do it on their own. Luxe is a prime example of how much the football team can fuck up a bad basketball product even more. Its actually pretty hilarious.

Just when you think it cant get any worse, they find a way. They always find a way.

A few weeks ago, Topps announced that they would be releasing a small batch of online exclusive packs that contained one of a short list of HOF autographs. These autographs would have a 60th anniversary reprint of the player’s rookie card, and would be one per pack for 75 bucks. Some of them have already started to surface, and for the most part, no real surprises.

Here are some examples up so far:

2016 Topps 60th Anniversary Cris Carter Reprint Auto

2016 Topps 60th Anniversary Dan Marino Reprint Auto

Definitely not as nice as the on card ones from years past:

2001 Topps Archives Barry Sanders Reprint RC Auto

1998 Topps Walter Payton 1976 RC Reprint Auto

The only drawback is that the autographs are stickers and not hard signed, which makes sense if these were supposed to be used for the flagship set. If these were on card, I would have bought a few myself, and Im still tempted even with the sticker. Im not sure how much value these might hold, as promo sets tend to get much softer with time, as opposed to standard issue. I dont really get why, but they do.

I think that pulling someone like Marino, Rice or Elway would definitely be cool, especially for the cost of a mid range box of regular cards. At the same time, these types of reprints have been done so many times, Im wondering if the market is so over-saturated that it almost doesnt matter.

Topps has really been pushing online exclusive content like this since they started running programs through their store, and I would love to see them turn this type of thing into a way to bypass the loss of license – similar to what UDA does. If that is the ultimate goal, im on board.

If you are interested in buying some of the current packs, they are still available on Topps.com.

With the absolute rousing success of products like Dynasty in Baseball and Definitive Collection in Football, Topps has turned one of the weaker genres of their brand into a tremendous strength. The ultra premium landscape in Baseball is one that has gone generally uncharted for the last few years, and I have to believe its for good reason. With Dynasty proving that Ultra Premium products can have success, the Mint is the next iteration of that adventure.

If the Mint turns out anything like this, it could get nuts:

2015 Topps Dynasty Kris Bryant Tag Patch Auto /10

2015 Topps Dynasty Mike Piazza Mets Logo Auto /5

2014 Topps Dynasty Chipper Jones Braves Logo Auto /10

2015 Topps Dynasty Mike Trout Angels Logo Auto 1/1

Although I am not a fan of any product name that starts with “The”, I think that the concept of what it represents should play very well into the content of the set. This is going to be high end to the nines, and for someone like me who collects this stuff almost exclusively, Im very intrigued.

The question remains of whether or not this is the real direction Baseball cards should go, especially considering how many set and low end collectors still remain in the sport. Releasing a slate of products like this is music to my ears, but it could serve to disenfranchise more collectors in the long run.

When you add in that game used memorabilia is steadily increasing in cost to acquire, mainly because quantity available is steadily decreasing, products like this might not be sustainable long term. Dynasty literally had some of the best patches I have ever seen in a baseball set, and I am not sure that Topps has the inventory to continue churning out the insane content for multiple products year after year.

Similarly, signers like Trout, Ichiro, Koufax, Aaron, and others of that caliber are slowly being devalued by the quantity of signatures on the market. Though new stars like Bryant and Correa could get there too, it seems like super premium baseball autographs just dont have the same draw like they would in Basketball or even Hockey.

As for design, I love the look. The presentation of the cards looks luxurious with blacks and golds, and the auto patches look pretty incredible. Im curious if the Seager card means they are going to do inscriptions, which I would go nuts for. Additionally, the Tim Robbins Bull Durham card might signal that Kevin Costner could also make an appearance in this set, which will continue that program through 2016.

Im sure there will be more content revealed as we get closer to the launch, and I would guess that we havent even seen close to what Topps is capable of. My sustainability concerns aside, the Mint is on my list. I cant wait to see the finished product, as I am confident its going to deliver.