I love Digital Cards. I play all the apps, I buy a lot in game with real money, and I write a similar blog to this one about Digital, all because I find it so interesting. Unlike many of the people who spend a lot of money on Digital, I started off as a Physical card collector, and still classify myself in that way over anything. I am a person who has a foot firmly in both worlds, and I can testify that they are not as mutually exclusive as people make them out to be.

As a whole, digital is quickly becoming a new ambassador for tens of thousands of new collectors, with new users joining each of the four apps on a daily basis. Where it looks like the hobby is declining at a very steady rate on the physical side, digital seems to be increasing in population by the double digits. If you have any desire to continue seeing new products and new cards continue to hit the market on a regular basis, this is a very good thing.

Its a good thing because the hobby needs new people – any people. For the main companies involved in the hobby, debt is a regular thing. Topps has over 100 million, Upper Deck owes the IRS about the same amount, and Panini would be in the same spot if they didnt have support from Italy. Sports cards are getting more and more expensive to produce and sell, and there are fewer people around to buy them each year. That is the definition of a money pit, and interactions with the leagues and players are only getting more difficult and more expensive.

Because of how much money digital can generate 24 hours a day, with no retail space overhead, no warehouse space overhead, no physical production cost, no chasing down players for autographs, and the ability to produce on demand content, its a dream. They can literally operate a card business and not have any of the production limitations that the physical card team does.

For those of you who are familiar, the creation of a physical product begins months, if not YEARS in advance. For digital, that could be a matter of weeks, days or even hours. Its the difference between building an episode of the Simpsons and building an episode of South Park. One takes multiple months, one takes exactly one week. That gives a lot of flexibility in content and every element of the product. Plus, they dont have to pay for signatures or relics, or worry about redemptions.

Based on this situation, its easy to see why each of the companies who makes cards (and some who dont), are lining up to build card collecting games for IOS and Android. Its a golden goose with potential to turn into golden geese. Not only that, with technology taking leaps forward regularly, it presents an opportunity to do “the next big thing” on a much more frequent basis. The last "next big thing" in sports cards happened in 1996 with relic cards. The 20th anniversary is coming up this year. Wow, that is a long, long time.

I get why this is a debate. If people want to live in a simpler time, where there were four sets a year, and people put baseball cards in albums without fear of condition sensitivity, that’s on them. They are going to be waiting a lifetime for things to go back to that.

In the same vein, I see it as counterproductive to continually disparage those who see digital for the real power it represents. Digital is the future, and there isnt much a few blog posts will be able to do to change that. However, that doesnt mean physical wont be there too in some capacity. Its not a guarantee, no doubt about it. Clearly, if trends continue, physical will eventually take a back seat because of cost to profit ratios, and its not just collectors leaving the hobby as the main factor. League licenses are becoming exponentially more expensive to maintain. Player related content is becoming more valuable to all sorts of people, including the league. This means relics are more difficult to obtain and more costly to acquire. Even if more and more people came back to the hobby, it might not be enough in the long run. Every aspect of producing physical sports cards is rising in cost too fast to overcome.

I also want to make sure we talk about this whole thing about “real” cards versus “fake” cards. Calling digital cards fake isnt really accurate. Digital cards are not meant to be “real” any more than the WWE is meant to be real. Its entertainment, its an experience, and its just supposed to be fun for the user. Its NOT designed to be an investment opportunity, even though some treat it that way.

Lets look at digital this way. Its basically a competition with 10,000 people to be the best at a few different parts of the game, and the cards themselves are just a means to an end. We know they can be taken away, we know they arent tangible, but the entertainment value is very, very, very real. The competition is very, very, very real.

Its obvious that physical card collectors rarely see digital as something they could ever spend money on, mainly because I think they are looking at it through the wrong lens. They look at it the way they look at their own collection, and we all know how passionate that can get. They see card collecting as something you keep and something you hold onto, as well as the entertainment of completing the action of collecting.

Digital is just about the entertainment of completing the collecting action, as well as the competition ingrained in the setup. There is REAL value and money involved, because this competition is fierce. The apps are designed to foster this mentality, and like with any competitive atmosphere, people will want to win. That’s digital. My opinion is that its not meant or designed to be something you hoard with the future potential for payoff years in the future. Its not meant to be something you hand down to your kids. Its just supposed to be fun, and Topps has found quite the way to monetize it. Good for them. They need it.

Another one of people’s main complaint about digital’s existence is that they some how feel it takes away quality from the brands they love. Collectors who have been in the hobby for many years see new designs for Topps Series 1, or a shift in the way the photos look on the cards, and they think that the brand continuity between physical and digital is to blame. I see how that argument comes into focus, as people expect that the two teams are tied together. Its not a stretch at all.

In fact, the digital team has its own graphic artists, separate from the artists that create the physical brands. The physical design is created long before the digitization is built, and from what BOTH sides of this say, they work completely separately. Here is Jeff Zachowski, from the physical side:

and Neil Kleid from the digital side:

The designs are the way they are because physical thought that was the best choice of the submitted designs available, and digital uses it to maintain parity. Pretty simple. If you dont like the 2016 Series 1 design, that’s fine. Dont blame digital though, as Bunt isnt the reason that it looks the way it does. After ripping through almost a case worth of Jumbos by myself, I really like the design. I think its quite modern and sleek, and I guess that’s why people dont like it.

Lastly, I have heard people talk about fostering addiction and holding Topps responsible as an enabler for people to spend money they dont have. I swear to god, this is something people use as a dig on digital. Im really just putting this in here so that you can marvel at its ridiculous and hypocritical nature. I wonder if the same people have that similar contempt for Bars and Casinos as well. Addiction is real, but in the end, its the individual who is ultimately responsible for doing anything. Last time I checked, anyone can walk into a card shop and put cases on a credit card. Do we hold contempt for Blowout or DA for making it more accessible? If I wanted to, I could rack up a nice little bill with a group breaker during the time I wrote this article. I dont see many people commenting how they enable the wrong behavior. I see people referring to it as gambling, but no where have I seen the ridiculous argument that doesnt hold the user responsible for their actions.

Let me close by reinforcing how both elements of sports cards can coexist in a fluid way. There is zero reason to pit them against each other or loathe their existence. If you dont like one or the other, that’s fine! You dont have to play and no one is forcing you to rip packs at your local shop either. Lamenting the success of one over the other is such a losing proposition, mainly because everyone seems to be missing the main element that digital brings to the hobby – growth. Not only growth, but potential for enormous growth. If you dont think that is a special thing, its time to realize that card collecting is not some VIP club. You cant and shouldnt want to keep people out. With the way things are going today, its better to adopt a “more the merrier” perspective, instead of looking to find excuses to exclude.

All I am saying is that its fine to not want to be involved in digital, but to paint it as a villain is not seeing the forest or the trees.

Im sad writing this post, because I know that Chrome baseball will likely be baseball only in 2016. That isnt a total loss, as I had a HELL of a good time ripping through Chrome last year. The set has definitely gotten some new life over the last few years, and I dont see that changing all that much this year.

Cards looked really nice last year:

2015 Topps Chrome Kris Bryant Purple Refractor Auto

2015 Topps Chrome Mike Trout Illustrious Auto /25

2015 Topps Chrome Noah Syndergaard Blue Refractor Auto BGS 9.5

2015 Topps Chrome Joc Pederson Purple Refractor Auto

The main piece of news is that Carlos Correa’s 2015 Chrome cards (only appeared in the set as high number SPs last year), will be inserted as autographs in this year’s product. Im sure this is going to set people off similar to what happened with Kris Bryant and his Bowman Chrome autographs. Personally, I dont see an issue, and I would find these cards to be awfully attractive hits to pull. From pictures posted by Topps, its clear that Correa signed the cards after the Chrome release in 2015, so its not like Topps purposefully held them back. They were offered in jumbo form earlier this year as well. If anything, this is a good way to add some oomph to the product now that there isnt a clear Kris Bryant or Correa this year.

I also love that there looks to be a lot more on card content this year, with many of the inserts and base autos showing as non-sticker on the sell sheet. To me, Chrome autos lose half their appeal when they are sticker, and 2016 is looking good in that respect.

Bottom line, Chrome will never have the punch it used to have, mainly because of how many years a prospect will have cards in Bowman prior to hitting the bigs. The main guys in Sano, Conforto and Schwarber have all signed a ton over the last few years, so their card arent as valuable as they would have been years ago.

Regardless, it should still be a fun rip this August.

If you were around back in 2010, and a fan of high end, you probably remember all the previews of the first go at Five Star that Topps released weekly. It was like someone brought all the feeling back to football cards after we found out Exquisite would no longer be NFL licensed. Seeing previews of Definitive kind of brings that full circle, because I know we are only going to get one version of it before Panini takes over.

2010 Five Star remains one of my favorite products ever:

2010 Topps Five Star Peyton Manning Auto Triple Patch Booklet

2010 Topps Five Star Ndamukong Suh Auto Patch RC

2010 Topps Five Star Ladanian Tomlinson / Ryan Matthews Dual Auto

2010 Topps Five Star Matt Ryan Quotables Inscription Auto

Its rare these days that I am floored by how a design looks, and after seeing the simple beauty here, I am really impressed. Really fucking impressed. On the Gurley and Mariota single autos, it looks like there is a “de-bossed” area with a very intricate design behind the player. I cant remember that ever being done before. The framed element on the Gurley card adds a premium element that I like a lot.

Also, we are getting a set of inscriptions again, which ARE my favorite cards in existence. I love me some inscriptions, and these look as good as ever. Last year’s Five Star left them behind, and I still feel like the set wasnt the same. Glad they are making a triumphant return one last time. The checklist looks pretty strong as well, with a lot of rookies, vets and HOFers, so I would guess that we are going to see some major wars over tracking those down.

The worst part about this is that I know people are still going to put Treasures ahead of this in terms of value, if not only for the reason I mentioned about one year and done. That is fucking bullshit, because these cards look a million times better. Not only does the design look better, but for the first time, it looks like the rookie patch autos will be bigger than treasures. I know how that inexplicably impacts value, despite the relics being event worn for 2 seconds.

Im bitter and sad that Topps is losing their license. They clearly know how to produce the best looking cards on the market.

With Panini taking over the exclusive in the NFL, we are in for a long and lonely road of cookie cutter products over the next few years. When one team with one vision of what a card should look like takes over an insane number they have to hit, things get repetitive. Its a way to save cost, save money, and save time coming up with new ideas. The reason I say this is because there is one question that is plaguing the card companies right now:

How do you convince a collector that THIS card is different or BETTER than the 100s of others they already have?

An auto relic is an auto relic regardless of the design. You can put different pictures, different colors, logos etc, but in the end, it isnt fundamentally different than the others that are on the market. It used to be that card and signature rarity would dictate value, but when EVERYONE of value signs 10,000 cards a year, mass dilution occurs. There are still some players that have relative rarity in their autograph, someone like Brady or Rodgers, but they are such the exception to the rule that its not even worth talking about.

So, back to the original question. If a company isnt going to innovate and create something new, how do you keep people interested? Sad thing is, secondary market values, especially in football, are dropping so quickly after a product’s release that it almost makes wax MORE unattractive to rip than it was before. Everyone knows that buying singles is the better play, but the fun of ripping into packs was always a huge draw. Now that it is becoming close to impossible to get money back on a product that is old, that “fun factor” is diminished. No one expects to make back their money on every box. As odd as that is, its the reality. However, in the same vein, no one is happy when less than 25% of the boxes net them back even close to the money they spent.

It has to do with a million different things, but one of the main ones is a lack of incentive to keep buying. If you cant sell the cards you dont want, the incentive is even less. This brings about two new questions:

1. Is there a way to better incentivize all collectors to keep ripping wax?
2. Is there a way to create artificial desire to buy more cards on the secondary market?

I believe there are answers to both questions, but the short term cost wont be cheap. Not only that, but it might not entice all those people who stopped ripping to start ripping again. Secondary market analysis is something that needs to be at the forefront of the hobby, and I only believe a few entities have the power to process that massive data. One of those entities chooses to release a monthly price guide that has no bearing in reality, and the other may not want to poke the bear.

Either way, lets try to over simplify this for the sake of a reasonable length to this post.

Solution 1 – Offer Perks for Frequent Rippers (including group breakers)

The way to do this is not the way Topps did it with the five star club. It cant be a 1% thing. It has to be accessible for the average collector who rips 10-20 boxes a year and profitable for the rippers that do 1000-2000 boxes a year.

Panini actually has a built in method of managing this situation, and it might bring them back into a normal state of satisfaction with collectors who already engage with them. Instead of stupidly using Panini Rewards in its current failure state, use it as a UPC element to every box purchased. Insert a points card in every box, at varying amounts, and make sure they DO NOT replace a hit. Every box has at least a certain amount, but rare boxes can have more.

Think about it this way. The collector who rips a box of Immaculate gets 500 points, the collector who rips a box of Score gets 25. Because the first collector spent considerably more on his box than the second, he would get considerably more points. Every box has a card, every box has as an incentive, and it would reward people over time for being a good customer. There will be jackpot boxes that can be inserted to help keep it fresh, and that’s just the start. It also gives group breakers another thing to sell, and that works too. No value is taken out of the box, only value added.

The rest of the rewards program can remain relatively the same, including the horrendous shipping costs that now applies to “swag” instead of a promised piece of content. As long as nice rewards are consistently updated, every collector can and will want to participate. Remember this is an oversimplification, and it could really go a number of different ways.

Solution 2 – Offer Chases of Specific Elements of a Product

I realize that incentivizing wax breaking is only part of the issue. So lets talk about incentivizing the secondary market. One of the main reasons why digital is so successful is because of the urgency inspired by the rare releases that are launched daily. People are fucking competitive, which means that being first and fastest to complete a set or get a rare card is a big deal.

Here is what I propose. Instead of letting the secondary market play out without influence, bump up the competition a bit.

• Offer exclusive rewards for the first X number of people to get a certain card or set.
• Offer exclusive rewards for the first X number of people to get XXX quantity of a certain card or set.
• Offer exclusive rewards for the person that can collect the most of a certain player
• Offer exclusive rewards for a season long competition of collecting X player, X team, or X type of card.
• Show a leaderboard
• Show ownership history of a card so people can see where the card has been and where their card goes when they sell it.

So, you might ask, how do you accomplish this feat? I mentioned short term cost above, and this element is where all of that cost is going to be realized. Instead of ramping up a digital product that is never really going to compete with Topps, its time to use it for something that actually creates a service. Each card will need a unique code, and there will need to be a system that tracks progress online. This wont be cheap, but some of the infrastructure is already build with Dunk and Gridiron.

Here is what this does. It creates an artificial reason for people to buy. Not just buy, but buy something they probably wouldnt normally buy in the first place. Think about how many people just buy one card of what they want. If they could get some exclusive rewards, they might buy more than they already do.  If done correctly, different product’s cards could carry different weight, and struggling products could be lifted by a spot chase that calls attention to the boxes.

There is an argument that high volume breakers would have the advantage, and just like digital, a rising tide lifts all boats. If there is all of a sudden a market for people to go into mass acquisition mode, that helps everyone who is a seller. Right now there are more sellers than buyers as soon as a product reaches the end of its buzz, and this way, there may be a lot more buyers. Not only does this improve the viability of ripping, but it helps all those people whose cards wouldnt be as valuable without it.

Again, this is an oversimplification, but if the program is setup, and the method is established, the cost of rewards, plus the cost of maintenance might be outweighed by the success of the chase. Even if Panini breaks even, the collectors are happier, and maybe the attrition wont continue to be in the double digit range. Lets face it, competition makes that auto relic that can be had in many different products a little bit more special.

The industry summit is coming up shortly, and I would guess there will be a number of people attending who arent going to be that blissful about the current state of things. Their customers are likely unhappy or mildly satisfied at best with product quality, and a new exclusive that requires a dozen extra products to be built by a company with a horrid track record probably isnt a great situation to bring to a public forum.

At least this is an idea. The most common idea is to cut products, but the league’s minimum guarantees and licensing situation would make that very difficult. Its time to start looking for solutions that fit into a market with oversaturation. If something is oversaturated, the best way to combat that is create desire for additional acquisition.

Here we go, the first NFL product of Panini’s new NFL exclusive license! Is it going to be good? Is it going to be valuable? What is it?

Hooray…… for….. SCORE? What the fuck?

Last week, Panini released a sell sheet for a product that in no way has been successful at all during its run in the NFL. Not only that, but like every goddamn product they make, many of the cards in the product will be NCAA focused. Funny enough, this is the type of thing that people should get used to. Because Panini has such high requirements to hit for the NFL, NFLPA, and NCAA, they are going to be forced into bringing back old shit bombs from previous years. They have yet to really build a reliable brand from scratch in football since, well National Treasures in 2006, and that isnt exactly the best track record for the team. Sure, they have Flawless, and Immaculate, but those are not native football products created by their staff. Those are all fall back designs that were created by the basketball team. The football team has shit like Score.

There have been some bad Score cards over the last few years, check these out:

2015 Score Jameis Winston Red Zone Auto /20

2015 Score Hot Rookies Odell Beckham Auto Blue Foil

2013 Score Eddie Lacy 1989 Score Throwback Anniversary Auto

2012 Score Kirk Cousins Auto RC

2011 Score AJ Green Hot Rookies Auto

In all honesty, the base doesnt look bad. None of the cards, save the hilarious attempt at a Roethlisberger autograph and the Cam Newton eye sore, look terrible. The problem is that it wont matter in the slightest. They are going to crank up the presses to run at double speed, and this product will be 20 dollars a box by the time the season starts. Not only that, but it looks like the main autographs of the set are NCAA uniforms for second year players? That makes no fucking sense at all, and it shows that Panini has their heads so far up their own ass, that they are seeing what their products look like through the lining of their intestines.

Last year, Score was a 100% retail product and a bad one at that. The last time Score was a hobby product it was Hot Rookies, or what I named as one of the worst products of the modern era. The cards were printed as the Score brand, and then Panini went back and foil stamped the Hot Rookies logo over the existing cards. It was so haphazard that you can actually see the score logo that is under all that wonderful foil. Not only did it look terrible with its retouched shots of players on the bench, but it was below dealer cost the second the artificial price controls were removed. I still laugh whenever I see someone post a break.

Get ready people, this is going to be a fun year for all of us people that see Panini for what they really are. Losers.