I hate graded cards. I feel that the whole business is a conflict of interest riddled scam that preys on collector vanity in a way that was never the original intent of the process. I have a PLETHORA of articles on this site that speak to the major issues with the grading process, its lack of transparency and lack of accountability to the results that drive 50x value in some cases. Over the last 2 years, PSA has seen a massive overhaul in the habits of collectors, driving a business model built on marketing gimmicks and manifested a whole new type of target population.

Background of This Giant Mess

Ill say, that my issue with grading isnt that it exists. There is value in providing a third party authentication of specific cards with a history of fuckery from forgers and other scam artists, as well as a borderline need to provide condition opinions in a world where sales are done almost entirely online. However, the lack of transparency around how those grades and authentications are completed, as well as the artificial creation of a hyper mint grading scale is absolutely fucking ridiculous.

Originally grading was created to add a reliable standard for items sold online, mainly due to the lack of high megapixel camera technology. Now that our phones are built for photos, there is less of a need to deliver this side of things outside of major defects purposefully hidden by shady sellers. That hasnt stopped the grading companies from using marketing gimmicks like “GEM MINT” and “Black Labels” to goad collectors into a practice of paying exceptional amounts of money for hyper mint examples.

There are specific indicators that show this market trend was manipulated into existence in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and somehow just stuck due to constant reinforcement from the marketing arm of the hobby and hobby media. The conflicts of interest present in price guides used exclusively during the turn of the century had clear impact as well, being that the grading card niche was so small prior to the launch of a true prospecting subhobby in baseball.

Grading has become a mess of pleasing high profile customers, lawsuits, and scandals, including public relationships with auction houses and manufacturers that speak to giant potential inflection points of market manipulation and public pump and dump schemes. Because the grading companies have no accountability any longer due to the sheer volume of sales and transactions done within the market, they are free to operate without regulation or scrutiny. For a larger rundown of the many conflicts of interest present in the model, just go to the top and search “grading.”

The WWE Anti-Grade Brigade

Most of this new market was originally built around shiny cards, but it has extended to every deep dark corner of the hobby over the last few years – save one. WWE cards have not had the engagement with graded cards outside of vintage cards, whose only major attribute is a high grade in most cases. The older sets are rarely impressive, unlike other examples from the vintage era of trading cards. Most come from a junk wax era where hundreds of thousands of examples were produced of every card, and where few made it through the last 40 years without condition issues.

On the modern side, WWE collectors avoided graded cards in a way that probably puzzled the hell out of every grading company that exists. Basically, up until the massive spike in Chrome from 2014 and 2015, there was absolutely zero reason to grade a modern WWE card at all. It rarely added much value, and only very specific cards popular with crossover sports collectors had any real population reports to speak of.

Most WWE collectors lived in and live in a bubble of collecting, devoid from influence from the mainstream hobby. The community approached their collections in a different way, set collectors operated in a uniquely populated market, and graded cards just never caught on. Some of the most vocal modern WWE collectors made campaigns out of videos cracking cards out of PSA and BGS cases, and the lack of other voices deafened the grading echo-chamber that is so prevalent in the hobby today.

The Prizm Grading Revolution

With the growing crossover crowd coming to join the WWE hobby on the heels of Panini’s announcement of their license acquisition, grading in WWE has started to go in a similar direction to where it has been featured in other areas of the hobby. Chrome and rookie card examples being graded and sold for record prices to a small group of people have built a new branch of the market over the last few months.

With more and more crossover collectors joining the parade with the release of Prizm, a lot of those pre-conceived understandings are following in their wake. Already, we have seen graded WWE Prizm cards show up on eBay, with people taking advantage of proximity to PSA and / or paying for express service to get out ahead of the tidal wave.

I fully expect that over the next three months, there will be more modern WWE cards submitted to the grading companies than they have ever seen in the history of wrestling cards. Bottom line, new management means new rules, and I can guarantee that the new breed of persona coming into this niche will absolutely subscribe to the mainstream hobby approach.

Determining a Plan for Big Hits

Here is the age old dilemma that most mainstream hobby collectors have to consider as they pull cards from next generation WWE products – Do I grade and sell or just throw it up on the block. For most cards, the application of a gem mint label means more value. This includes a 1/1, where there will be no other examples to compare it to.

There is also competing timers at play that speak to the softening of the market in between release and the first graded examples being available. For the average non-connected collector, grading can take weeks to months to years (yes you heard that correctly), and there are huge implications for making a decision to grade versus sell immediately.

In my experience, if a card is one that transcends the softening of a market, its worth taking the time and spending the ridiculous amounts of money to grade it before you sell it. For some of the five figure cards that have populated this Prizm release above and beyond any other product in WWE history, this will include massive upcharges that the grading companies have instituted to further squeeze more money out of their new seat upon the throne of hobby businesses.

If your card isnt immune to the fluctuations in price, which is most of what Prizm is made up of, it becomes a measure of how fast someone needs to recoup cost of ownership in the card. For people that can wait, and have a clean example of a card that should hit the hyper mint scale, it might be worth the submission. There are many ways to do it quickly or slowly, and cost will vary. Collectors will need to figure out a path as the prices and the market settles during the time needed to get your goods back in hand.

Overall, I understand that my thoughts on this subject are largely irrelevant, as my commentary will have zero effect on what the general public decides to do. I am forced, as a captive audience, to make sure that I position myself within the market as best I can, so I will likely not have a choice as I participate in the sales myself. All I have to say is that grading, and the marketing machine behind it, have changed the face of the hobby to an irreparable degree. Most collectors are only aware of what value is created by grading a card, not the aspects of what brought that preference to light. With that, the choice is up to you.

As I have mentioned before, Prizm is a whole new world of craziness for most Wrestling collectors who have lived inside the hobby bubble. For many of them, the first major shock was the price of wax, followed quickly by the mind blowing prices for the top tier rare and desirable cards. With that consideration in play, it has led people to take some enormous risks on Wax, and in turn even more risks in trying to recoup costs.

Some of this has led to some quick softening of values from the lower end examples in the product, but also a borderline revolt from a contingent of people who feel like Panini has ruined Wrestling cards. Lets start by saying that there are still 4-5 more years of Prizm to come, and nothing that happens on the secondary market is really going to impact any of that fact’s truth. Panini is here to stay, and it serves everyone to better understand how to operate and still have fun, rather than complain constantly.

This leads to one of the larger questions that most collectors will struggle to work with – can you exist in this new world order without ripping wax? Let’s dive a bit deeper into the pros and cons, as well as the best ways to engage without losing your ass.

A Game of High Stakes Gambling?

Over and over, Ive said that Panini wax is usually very top heavy and those tentpoles hold up the enormous prices that the wax usually sells for. If you can pull five figure cards in the product, the wax price will be a reflection of that value, not the likelihood of actually pulling one of those cards. What this represents is the hobby equivalent of a lottery ticket. Sure, you can hit the jackpot, but it is FAAAAR more likely that you will lose what you put in. The good thing is that there are a number of ways to come out ahead outside of just hitting a big card, but that is outweighed by an overwhelming chance that you will get a fraction of value back within your box.

There are two ways that collectors mitigate this risk. The most common is by using groups to shoulder the gigantic cost of buying into a box or a case, rather than just an individual. Instead of one person forking over four figures to get a box, a group of people can all take their part in a number of ways. Whether that means buying access to serial number, a group of wrestlers, or even a letter corresponding to their names. Because more people are buying together, the cost of the ante is lower, thus reducing the recovery costs needed to break even. Problem is, it does make the odds significantly higher that you will hit that big card.

The second way is to rip a bunch at a time. Although the odds dont really shift box to box, opening cases and getting more chances versus hoping lightning strikes on a single box is a very common strategy. This does give the buyer more POTENTIAL opportunities, but the percentage of loss increases with each box or case added to the pile. This is the hobby’s equivalent of the gambler’s fallacy, and I can guarantee that too many people have found themselves in dire straits as a result.

Overall, wax is absolutely a gamble. In this case, its likely one of the biggest gamble in the history of wrestling cards. Although there are more four and five figure cards in this product than any other product that has ever been released, the price reflects that situation. If you are a wrestling collector looking for cheap thrills like before, there are a ton of ways to get that, but opening your own personal box of Prizm is likely the worst engagement opportunity there is.

Understanding the Record Prices and the Low End Bottoming Out

Prizm is a tale of two cities. One side is the record setting values that the rare and desirable cards have on the secondary market, and the other side is the drop in value for the lower tier cards that have significantly dropped in value since release. Let me say this, the prices will be a roller coaster across the entirety of the life of the product. It all has to do with the way investors and buyers engage across the spectrum of hits, the grading that will take place over the next 6-12 months, and the reduction of supply as people rip product and put cards into their PCs.

Lets start with the super premium cards, because those examples are the sexy investment pieces that are responsible for the giant wax price. Even though hitting one of these cards is a once in a lifetime situation for many collectors, its the driving force of why Prizm has become what it is. I wrote a retrospective leading up to the release that explains how this product found itself at the front of the line for new investors, and its worth checking out if you are new to this game. To put it simply, shiny cards are an asset that many investors build their collections around. In the vein of rookie cards, these people all love firsts in the hobby, and being that Prizm is a debut edition, they want to have the first example of the premium cards for all the top tier subjects.

This means that cards from guys like The Rock, Stone Cold Steve Austin, and Hulk Hogan will be more valuable this year than they will be any other year. Because comparative value for WWE versus investment pieces in the NBA and the NFL is tiny, these cards are low end for most. Looking into debut Prizm examples for people like Lebron James, Tom Brady, and others, a 15k price tag isnt even in the same zip code. The Rock is on that level for WWE, but his cards are chump change by comparison.

As you can expect, if everyone is ripping and ripping, chasing the big hits along side group breakers who are going through case after case of product, there is a lot of bulk that will flood the market. For the wax addicts, the goal becomes to recoup cost as quickly as possible, and the best way to do that is to list the cards auction style and hope for the best. Because Prizm WWE is a brand new market, the collecting base isnt large enough to sustain a huge number of auctions that all end in rapid succession. There are a few reasons for this.

With Topps products, the run was likely 1/3 to 1/4 of what the Hobby run is for Prizm. This means that the big hits happen with a lot less bulk in the checklist to flood the auction listings for bottom feeders, set builders and flippers. This is a huge contributing factor, because Prizm has the largest checklist that has ever been run in a WWE product. We are talking a gigantic difference in set size, and the amount of cards produced for all those unnumbered parallels. Its like comparing a house cat with a tiger in terms of size.

Similarly, all those people who usually feed off the underbelly of a product, collecting lower tier wrestlers, building sets, and generally hunting for deals are ripe with contempt for this new license. They are spurred by vocal influencers who have a vested interest in the product’s drop in price. For most of these people, being unfamiliar with the market has bred a sense of apathy, even though they can likely buy singles at or even below where they would have in previous Topps sets. All they need to do is open their eyes.

Many of these people have seen their ability to rip boxes hobby format reduced, and though the singles are easily attainable, most seem to have chosen to check out instead. Funny enough – NONE of this is a new concept. This has plagued Panini products since day one, and it wont be different for a small niche like WWE. If anything it will be more exacerbated.

Prepare for the Roller Coaster

Its time for me to put on my psychic friends network hat and offer some potential outcomes that might happen over the next year – all leading up to the second edition of Prizm in 2023. Many of the nay-sayers will point to fluctuating values on the secondary market as a measure of viability, which I can assure you it is not. This product is already a success to a vast degree. More people are talking about WWE cards in the hobby than ever. WWE cards were trending on Twitter as a result of the release, and the record prices are well above expectations already. Even if everything tanks to an ocean trench level, this has already done more for WWE than even I expected.

In terms of the record setting prices, those will likely continue as people try to chase down the rare cards for the top tier superstars. The 1/1s of the Rock, Hulk Hogan and others will likely set all time records each time they are sold, and that could happen multiple times after they are pulled. As for the golds /10, there will be huge sales to start, and then a dip as they get into the third and fourth copies sold. As the months progress, those prices will creep back up as the opportunities to buy decrease. Five years from now, the prices from today will look laughable in how inexpensive they were.

As more formats are put on shelves, the lower end of Prizm will drop to a very high degree. Panini has printed an absolute shit ton of this stuff already and retail is still on the way. There will be other options, including box sets, TMall, and any other formats Panini thinks the market can support. They dont make money on any of the secondary market sales, so they want to run the presses for as long as people will buy. Because the cards arent numbered, there is no available understanding of how many of each exist. Pop reports for grading companies can be an indicator of size comparisons to other products, but we will never know the actual number. This includes high value inserts like the Color Blasts.

From this point forward, I expect a few dips as each new format hits the scene, followed by a rise as more versions of the products come out in 2023 and beyond. Again, none of this is a surprise, as it happens every time Panini releases a debut edition.

I wholeheartedly encourage people to research before they buy, and see what the trajectory of these things looks like long term. Apps like CardLadder show a long chart of pricing trends for many of the bigger sets, and its easy to pick out the places to make money. Dont listen to the trolls, and definitely do your own homework. This is a landmark release regardless of what happens, and it wont be the last time either.

The last week has been a very interesting one for the people invested in WWE Prizm. There has been a ton of new eyes, commercials on WWE programming, and sales that most people in the WWE collecting bubble would never have expected to happen five years ago. As fun as it has been watching this all explode, it hasnt been as well received in the community, an expected side effect of what Prizm has done across a few new brands. As a result, we have seen trolls trying to pick off auctions with fraudulent bids, as well as constant bashing across the facebook groups and twitter communities populated by old school gatekeepers.

Here is the thing, unlike previous brand releases for Prizm, WWE was really one of the first with a VIBRANT (yet very small, comparatively) community. Most of those community members exist outside of the mainstream hobby, and in a wholly different fashion than any other niche area. I know this personally because of how stark of an adjustment it was for me back in 2017 when I got into WWE cards. Its weird to see people actively root against the success of something that I had been hoping would happen for years, and to a degree potentially softening a market a bit earlier than expected.

I think its time to correct a few misunderstandings, because the more people understand what is going on, hopefully they can adjust their expectations and improve their attitude towards a burgeoning community of people who could make their experience better.

Misunderstanding #1 – All Prizm Cards Will Be Valuable!

Lets start here, and make sure people get an education on this situation first and foremost. There will be a lot of Prizm cards that are valuable, and will stay valuable beyond people’s wildest dreams. That being said, not all aspects of Prizm will be valuable to a point that is all that different than previous WWE products. The good thing here is that there is a ton of historical information to show how the tentpoles of the product will hold up wax prices above what would be reasonable for the readily available stuff.

More importantly, the WWE rules kind of apply across Prizm too. If something is rare, its going to have some good multipliers attached to it, even the less desirable stuff. We have already seen a lot of indicators of this with the rare low tier wrestler final values. If something is desirable to the general collector population, its going to carry some good value too. Cards of the top tier guys are more desirable, and their stuff will likely hold more long term. If something is RARE AND DESIRABLE, that’s where the records are set.

If you think about the tiering of wrestlers, it will be much easier to see how all of the different aspects of the product will perform. Expecting guys like Cedric Alexander to carry the same potential as someone on the top tier was never a consideration, but because of the rarity factor, he could have some cards that will sell above where any of his other cards have ever sold for. Pointing to low tier readily available cards dropping in price isnt a good indicator of overall potential. Prizm has a GIGANTIC checklist, and the WWE hobby is still too small to support the huge prices that the trolls are using as fodder for their hatred.

Misunderstanding #2 – This is All a Pump and Dump!

Right now, WWE Prizm boxes and FOTL Prizm boxes are selling at release higher than any product has sold for in the history of WWE. Im not putting Transcendent on this list because the product was never designed to be released in a retail setting. For a flagship set, its insane to think that a box could sell for over 1000 dollars, let alone multiple thousands in the case of FOTL single boxes.

Automatically, there seems to be a lot of talk of a pump and dump because the prices are so foreign to the people who have been involved with WWE for a long time. Not only that, but pointing to singles and other high priced aspects of Prizm as a pump and dump is running rampant due to similar sentiments. I think its worth discussing how this is all playing out, because its hard to run a pump and dump upon release, especially in a market where things are still settling.

First, in regards to wax price, Prizm definitely has something that most WWE products dont usually have – VOLUME. There is a lot of Prizm Hobby, enough to satisfy demand, plus some. The difference here is the addressable market, because for the first time you have large volume breakers looking to dive in headfirst. Its a debut edition, and they know they can move slots. That means that unlike with other Topps products, retailers, dealers, and breakers are all battling for the same allocation of product. Hobby was originally priced at 700-850 at pre-order, and has climbed as high as 1300+ in some areas. Most of that is because there were so many people who wanted to get their hands on product, and reorders were getting tougher to fill at the original price. That isnt a pump and dump, its just demand vs market cap.

Similarly, for FOTL, the case volume is just nothing. There might be 100-200 cases total, and from what I understand, very few of them are actually going to be hitting the market. They will either be held as the demand vs supply continues to increase, or have already been ripped. For a pump and dump, there isnt close to the amount of volume that could be spread out to accomplish the goal.

As for the singles themselves, as mentioned above, the market has already started to soften – as it does with every Panini product. For other sports, the first week of a product always sells 10-25% above the settled market price. After a while, common cards settle as the major collectors get their goods and move on.

Because of this situation, the easy to find stuff of mid to low tier wrestlers were never going to hold value the way that they did out of the gate. Even less so for tested veterans who have long established their place on the card. There is no prospecting potential there, and WWE success is more determined by booking on the shows rather than the intrinsic talent of a player. The people in control of the outcomes determine the viability of a superstar rather than the superstar themselves. In other sports, the athletes have full control over their potential performance.

Misunderstanding #3 – These Base Parallels Shouldn’t Sell For More Than the Autographs!

Like we have seen with most of the misunderstandings, the lack of familiarity of the way Prizm parallels perform in the market is driving some really, really bad takes. Unlike WWE products of the past, Prizm investors and collectors dont chase the autographs. They chase rare parallels of the top stars and grade them for their PCs. That doesnt mean the autographs dont hold value, but they arent the focus. Im sure you have heard this for a long time, and Im sure its a foreign concept if you havent experienced it first hand. For people that have operated in the major sports for years, this is a standard expectation.

The good thing about this product is that Panini still loaded up the autograph checklist to satisfy the previous group of collectors as much as possible. For some of the NBA products, autographs lack so much chase, that Panini almost forgets about them. You really have to go to other configurations to find a focus on the content that hobby wasnt designed to drive.

Most people are looking for a reason for this phenomenon, and to be honest, its buried in years of the NBA market trending towards insane values. A lot of it speaks to how much people have become attracted to the color that tends to pop in all Chrome stock sets. Bottom line, this is the way it is, and the more you have experience in Panini’s universe, the more experience you will get around the new world order.

Misunderstanding #4 – None Of These Record Prices Are Actually Paid For!

This one is easy to debunk, especially as Card Ladder and other investment value tracking apps have started to verify sales. For a lot of the people out there, seeing this astronomical prices is a foreign thing to witness as frequently as we have over the last few days. For those who dont want to accept that the tide is turning in WWE becoming part of the periphery for the mainstream hobby, calls of “NO WAY THOSE BIDS ARE REAL!” will be their banner to fly.

In reality, there are bids that arent real, and those examples will pollute the real sales that are going down left and right. I have confirmed that the the top sales of Prizm so far – mainly the rare 1/1 blacks of some of the main second tier guys are completed and real. Similarly for some of the sales of main gold prizms for top tier guys like Austin and Undertaker. Unfortunately, trolls want to instill a sense of fear that no sales are real, and chuck fake bids to buy cards and back out post completion. We saw this with the five figure sale of a John Cena Color Blast, and a few others. Because misinformation is such a valuable tool for people rooting against this era of WWE cards, its clear they are looking to shake the foundation of perception as soon as they can.

The thing is, most of this isnt unique to WWE. This is part of what happens when a hobby niche goes mainstream. The difference is, will there be enough work by the gatekeepers to shake a small niche part the hobby? Its actually more possible because of the vocal nature that these people have. Their cadre of sycophants are more motivated to protect their interests than in other areas of the collecting universe, especially with a lack of understanding about how this rising tide will float all boats, rather than just some.

The long and short of this is that there seems to be more and more battles being fought over WWE than what we saw with F1, UFC, and Marvel, as the community of WWE collectors prior to the boom was more entrenched. That’s a problem. Not only that, but the major sources of WWE card information aren’t on board with Panini’s presence, save a select few. Having such a large vocal presence constantly undercutting any success with reckless speculation and misinformation does have an effect, and some of that comes with personal motives in tact. Hopefully the large community of Prizm investors and supporters provides a counterbalance.

Misunderstanding #5 – Prizm’s Success is Guaranteed!

In all my posts, I have said that the historical evidence of success is very much available for sets like Prizm, and it is solid enough to bank on at certain levels of the product. That doesnt mean that the market is primed for a rocket like F1 or even UFC, and it might be unfair to have expectations that the greater hobby community is ready to latch onto pre-determined sports entertainment the same way they will latch onto mainstream sports like MMA. There are too many differences between the worlds of entertainment and sports, although as I have mentioned – the star power in WWE far exceeds anything most other sports can provide.

Walking down the street, the super-majority of people you would stop would be able to tell you who the Rock is. A large majority have familiarity of who Stone Cold Steve Austin is. WWE is a household brand name, and guys like John Cena, Brock Lesnar and the Undertaker have transcended Wrestling as a whole. On the flip side, those that could tell you who was in the main event of Wrestlemania has dropped significantly since the early 2000s, and I would argue its not going to go up from here.

WWE recently published that social media engagement for Wrestlemania was larger than the Super Bowl, but I dont think anyone would be naive enough to believe that the implications of the biggest Sunday of the year outweighs that of Wrestlemania by a significant amount. Right now, Wrestling seems to be in a limbo area of social consciousness, and that means that the long term success of a set like Prizm might be more limited than that of a UFC equivalent.

Clearly, everyone needs an exit strategy, and no one should be playing with money they dont have. However, I think the performance out of the gate has already exceeded expectations to a point that the early adopters are already sitting on a nice war chest of money to play with. There are also some lower profile whales who are sitting in prime position for a long haul of hoarding product.

On the flip side, the lower portion of the product does need the support of the existing collector base in a way that I dont think is there. So many of the people assumed they would be priced out that they havent even bothered to try to engage. As long as that happens, the champagne room VIP area will do fine, but the rest of the product will suffer.

As someone who has been one of Panini’s most vocal detractors over the years, it should be telling that I want this to be successful. I want Wrestling cards to get their time in the sun. Even though I have had to be creative to participate to date, I have also come to terms with the fact that the success of this market will have a positive impact on my own PC. I hope people can see through the bullshit that is being spewed from both sides of the argument to find a place where they can have fun too.