I Have High Expectations For 2009 Products

Posted on 05/11/2009 by gellman

Every year, readers send me boatloads of emails asking which products are the best. I usually have to give them a short answer in the interest of not writing a novel, but most of the time it boils down to 5 products that don’t usually disappoint. Last year I talked here about my favorite cards of the year for each rookie class, so I thought I would update things a little with performance updates based on the 2008 products.

Here is my list for 2009:

1. SP Authentic Rookie Patch Auto

I put this one at number one because the design is usually the best of the year, they are usually half the price of their exquisite counterparts, they are on card autos, and they have been around longer than most of the other ones that are making an appearance on this list. Collectors value these over many of the more high end products mainly for those reasons and I agree. SPA is my favorite of the year almost all the time.

2. Exquisite Rookie Patch Auto

These cards come from the Bentley of sports card sets, and usually the design and value reflect that. I loved the RPAs from this past year, which offset the suspect year before it. These are the most valuable cards of the year, but you will pay almost twice the price of a normal card to get one. If you had started a collection of your guy, this would be the centerpiece.

3. National Treasures Rookie Patch Auto

I am only referring to the on card version of this set, as the others can get nuts with the different diecuts. I especially liked this set last year, as the tapered windows were a major, MAJOR upgrade. These may come out of the second most expensive product of the year, but they don’t live up to the cards from SPA and Exquisite. The reason that they are so high on this list, is they are the first super high end card of the year, and most consider these to be Cadillacs to the Bentley mentioned above. I would be fine with a Cadillac.

4. Topps Chrome Rookie Auto

I love Topps chrome, it’s the one Topps product that usually doesn’t disappoint. Add in the fact that they dropped the price last year, and I must have busted 5 boxes. The Chrome autos are usually just the auto’ed version of the base, a tactic I wholeheartedly approve of, and the simplistic card usually scores well with everyone. Although the design isnt fireworks in my heart this year, Im hoping it will look better in person. It usually does. Now, the photography is a whole different story altogether.

5. Leaf Limited Patch Auto

Leaf Limited was a let down last year due to the format switch. The patch autos were still great, however, and that was enough to get me to buy into a few group breaks. I think these made the Contenders from last year look like crap, but that was just me. This year, I hope they are back, and I hope they continue to be one of the more aesthetically pleasing. The one thing I am dreading is more black sharpie over the player’s pic. That didn’t make sense with room below.

Honorable Mentions:

– Playoff Contenders Ticket Auto – no material, which I like, but last few years design has been ridiculously bad.
– Leaf Certified Material Mirror Blue Freshman Fabric – Loved 2007, HATED 2008, 2009 is a ?
– Ultimate Collection RC Autos – These were kind of botched in terms of the usual format, but I loved these last year.

Be sure to realize that new products come out every single year, and this year will be no exception as Donini tries to make a splash. So far, we havent gotten much in terms of plans, but you can bet that the other companies will have their guns cocked and ready to fire with their own sexy products. As long as you are good at spotting the ‘1 year duds’ as I call them, you will be fine.

Looking At The 2009 Class And What They Bring To The Table

Posted on 05/08/2009 by gellman

Before each year comes along, as I have said many times before, people choose their “guys” to focus on for the upcoming year. Most of the time it’s the team you cheer for, other times it’s a prospecting move based on projected production. Based on these types of practices, here are my opinions on which of the 2009 rookies will produce the best results for the people in the second category.

Matt Stafford

I am not of the group of people who says you start an RC quarterback unless you absolutely have to. The Lions may be in that place, but I just don’t see Stafford being all that productive – yet. The Lions are still a god awful team, and although Stafford has Pettigrew and Johnson to throw to now, its not going to help when you don’t have the experience. Ryan was the exception to the rule, so don’t start putting the eggs in this basket until you see some actual stats. If he does start, expect more INTs than touchdowns, especially with the state of the Lions’ O-Line.

Mark Sanchez

The Jets are a much, much, MUCH better team than the Lions, but I still put the same predictions on Sanchez. He shouldn’t start right away, but even if he does, he wont have much to write home about. As of right now, I cannot name a single Jets WR without going to NFL.com first. That will hurt him. A lot.

Knowshon Moreno

If the Broncos still had Cutler, and they somehow managed to get Moreno too, he would be my guy to win rookie of the year for 2009. With Neckbeard at the helm, it’s a little different, though Brandon Marshall should attract a lot of attention. I expect Moreno to have a good year, and possibly still win the hardware, but its been all or nothing these last few years with RC RBs. As of now, his prices are ridiculous, but after they come down, if they come down, don’t hesitate to pick up some stuff if its within your means.

Aaron Curry

Curry could be the next Urlacher, but as a defensive player, his value will never be at the same level as the others. He also wont have many big cards outside of his rookie year, as most of the companies focus on offensive players after the first year. Curry has massive potential, and will most likely be the defensive rookie of the year, but the hobby wont notice him past a few dollars here and there.

Michael Crabtree

Crabtree, right now, is my top candidate for rookie of the year, though the Niners’ QB situation is quite scary right now. I still think that he has the tools to be on or above Johnson’s level, but without someone to throw him the ball, he wont be anywhere close. Next year when the Niners draft someone high in the first round, things may change. Oh, and just thinking about the fact that the Raiders passed him up for Heyward-Bey still makes me laugh. What idiots.

Jeremy Maclin

Brian Westbrook has been the man to stop in Philly for the last few years, but he is getting on in age and in condition. I would say Maclin should be a great target for McNabb, but he had a number of concerns with route running and other parts of his game that made him less attractive than Crabtree. I say he has an Eddie Royal type season, with some good performances, but he probably wont be the most valuable guy to keep until later in the next few years.

Percy Harvin

All I have heard over the last few weeks since the draft is that Harvin is the most explosive player in the class. Platitudes aside, I think he will be a good contributor as a 3 or even a 2, but he wont be anything special until he gets his brains behind him on the field. He seems like he has amazing talent, but just doesn’t use his head. Kind of like Randy Moss in that respect. We saw what happens when Moss applies himself. He is the best in the game. Harvin could do that, though not in the same expected production pool.

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Don’t even think he is going to be anything worth your time at first. I see Troy Williamson bust potential, but who knows, he could get lucky. I see more of DeSean Jackson’s production, at Calvin Johnson’s draft pick slot.

Chris Wells

Beanie could be the next Chris Johnson. He has amazing talent, is with a great team with a great line, and most importantly he played against more top talent in College than Brown or the other later backs in the draft. I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes the league for a Johnson style wild ride – that is – if he can stay healthy.

Regardless of who you pick, remember that you should be following the tree of position worth. More importantly, you shouldn’t pay more for a WR than you would for a RB, because in the long run, it will not be a good decision. Also, pick someone you may have a chance to get some stuff of after his rookie year. Usually the companies only pick people who they know are going to bring value to a set, and the fourth round QB you stocked up on now, probably wont have many cards. Anyone else ready for some football??

Your Primer For Pre-Rookie Premiere Products

Posted on 05/07/2009 by gellman

In the next few weeks, we should be getting our first taste of licensed NFL products with the 2009 RCs. Before you go nuts, keep a few things in mind when you are buying. Also, do not, under any circumstances, forget that post RC premiere NFL uni cards are less than 3 months away.

The first thing you need to remember is that when you buy, remember that the value of these cards will only hold as long as they did last year. That means when you buy UD draft boxes, understand that the stuff in the boxes should be sold off as quickly as possible. Same with Prestige. I can tell you right now that after the first box of Classics hit the shelf, I didn’t even let another thought into my head about these products. The cards themselves will hold more value than any unlicensed cards, but they surely will not live up to the main release products. I would be especially careful with the new Bowman offering, as there will most likely be 2-4 other Bowman products for collectors to get later in the year. If you buy Stafford and Moreno at 80-100, expect a 20-40% decrease in the price after the season starts.

The second thing you need to remember, is that some products are a much better value buy than others. That means that its better to buy Donini Elite rather than Donini prestige. Plus, with content and price about where it was last year, you can expect to pay a lot up front for both. Its better to choose the products you know will hold through the year. Here is my pre-premiere ladder:

1. Donini Elite
2. UD Draft
3. Donini Prestige
4. UD Icons
5. UD Heroes
6. Bowman DP
100. any unlicensed products

The elite, although college jersey pictures, seems to hold better than most, mainly because of the baseball equivalents being popular, and also the brand being around for a long time. The cards usually don’t look that bad, and they can be numbered quite low. The one caviat to all of this is all UD products will be on card, so you may just want to go for those. However, many have been pushed back, so they may coicide with RC premiere cards.

Lastly, don’t go prospecting with these sets unless you are going to sell RIGHT AWAY. Believe it or not, people do end up making quite a bit of money buying cases and flipping the content on these, but that doesn’t mean it will work out that way for you. I would say pick your guy(s) and get a few things. Hopefully you will choose wisely enough that the player will be great and you wont lose much, or the player is cheap to begin with and it wouldn’t matter if he sucked it up.

Collecting On A Budget: Getting On Board With The Top Of The Class

Posted on 04/29/2009 by gellman

Each year a new class comes to the front of the hobby, usually there are one or two that are in the stratosphere for pricing, a middle group of people who are expensive but not overly expensive, and lastly, the scrubs. In 2007 I was faced with a whole year of collecting that top level of rookie with Peterson, but last year, Booty was, in terms of value, a scrub. This year, Harvin will probably be a mid level guy, taking in 20-30 bucks for autos after the first few games of the season, my wallet is thanking me right now. The question remains, what if you are “stuck” with the top guy in the class, but don’t have the cash? Here are some solutions I have had to incoporate into my repetoir.

First, Chrome is your best friend. You can usually buy a box for less than 50 bucks, and you can get some of the best looking base RC cards out there. Although the autos of your top guy will be scarce, you probably wont need to spend more than 5 bucks for an amazing base card. The good thing is that collectors still value chrome, so it isnt one of those, “lets throw base RCs in here because we need to fill the set” type of things. Also, parallels for chrome will also still be well received, so that will work in your favor. Of all the parallels in the hobby, this and SPA are the only ones I support. The icing on the cake is that chrome comes out early, so you don’t have to wait to long to have a keeper. After all, you could get lucky in your box.

Second, pick your battles. There is no reason to be a super collector these days, as there is no possible way to get everything. That doesn’t mean you cant pick your favorites, however. Choose a set or two that you know will be amazing from the previews and years past, and save your shit for that release. If you like Contenders, don’t waste your money on buying card after card after card. I know one of my favorite sets of the year is Classics because I know that it is the first Post RC Premiere product. The autos are just the base cards in a parallel, so I know it wont be a crappy RC subset that was an afterthought. Plus, from the previews, it looks pretty good this year. Because of my feelings, I wouldn’t buy boxes of Elite, UD Draft, or Prestige because I am a bigger fan of the later sets. Funny enough, Draft actually looks pretty good this year, so I may jump on that boat despite my Classics target.

Third, know your personal structure of value. If you want a nice card of your top guy, and know that you will only have one or two shots at an auto with the money you have, it may be in your favor to just pick the highest up on the value structure. Usually the top of the pyramid are always nice cards, and I hope that continues. Here is my list of cards to consider:

1. Exquisite Auto Patch
2. SPA Auto Patch
3. National Treasures Auto Patch
4. Chrome Base RC Auto
5. Topps Rookie Premiere Auto
6. SPX Auto Jers
7. Contenders Auto Ticket
8. UD Premier Auto Jers
9. Limited Auto Jers
10. Gridiron Gear Double Patch Auto (the one without the EU Football)

Of course, if you just want a cheap auto option and just want it to look nice, there are quite a few early DLP products with tons of subset autos to choose from, along with UD heroes and UD Icons. They wont be worth a ton, but they will look nice. Plus I believe that most of the UD products this year will be on card, if not all, so that will be good if you want something similar to the on card bonanza that happens with the top end of the scale.

Really, I cant stress enough how important it is to save up your cheese for something you need, as there is always something else you want. If you chip away at the 400 you need to pay for a top level SPA patch auto all year by throwing a few dollars aside each time you want to make a worthless buy, you will have your cash when you need it. However, if you buy junk for a year and then wonder why you are short on cash, I have an “I told you so” cocked and ready to fire.

Lastly, it comes down to watiting versus jumping the line. If you have a QB as your top guy, and you cant possibly wait one second, fine. Otherwise, QBs usually don’t start their first season, and when they do, they usually suck. However, if you wait until this reality sweeps over the line jumpers, you can usually chop 20-30 bucks off the 100 the autos usually cost. For a RB, people are obsessed with buying as many as possible, just in case there is some miniscule chance that the guy turns into Peterson. Look at Felix Jones, Jonathan Stewart, Darren McFadden, and Rashard Mendenhall, all of whose prices were astronomical beofre the season thanks to the idiots who don’t know any better. Then, as they started to show that they were still rookies, prices fell with reckless abandon. McFadden was tops to start the year, and ended up near the middle of the value pack at the end. Mendehall bottomed out and almost became a scrub. Don’t make this mistake for yourself.

Also, here is the way value will even out as the years pass. Even though a WR may be the top guy now, history shows that in the long run they wont be:

1. QB
2. RB
3. WR
4. LB
5. TE
6. DE/DL
7. CB
8. OL

Be smart, and for god’s sake, don’t be that guy.

The 2009 Autolic Test: NFL Draft Edition

Posted on 04/27/2009 by gellman

I thought now was as good a time as any to go over this, mainly because I have a feeling that many of you are wondering. For each draft class we all pick our people. We go over the rounds and decide on a guy based on team, college, style whatever. I also know that many of you want to see an auto before you decide. Or, as I put it, whether or not the guy passes or fails your version of the Wonderlic Autograph Test (The Autolic Test). For those of you who are not familiar, the Wonderlic is a test given to all prospects at the combine to test a number of different things about their intelligence, football intelligence, etc. The Autolic test is one performed by many collectors to determine if the autograph has merit or is subject to the Morency quotient.

This year, I think we are ridiculously lucky as long as none of the players decide to pull a press pass and sign better when there are few cards to sign, and give up when there are many. Top QB autos have been very good the last few years, and Stafford is no exception. The guy is great, he should be hailed for his detail and penmanship. Nice job. Same goes for Beanie Wells, who has a great auto for his cards. Sanchez has a loopy swoopy graph, that I don’t mind, and Moreno’s isnt bad either. Harvin and Crabtree have a nice visual appeal to theirs, as well, as both should do pretty amazing when you see them on better cards.

On the other hand, Josh Freeman is a jumbled mess. If I gave you this pic and told you to pick his out, you would really have to go through a few deductions in your head before pointing the finger in his direction. Heyward-bey isnt horrible, but it is boring to me for some reason, mainly because you could practically draw a line through his sig and hit every stroke of every letter. Like I said, not horrible, just boring.

You may think that I put too much thought into this, but I will give this fact as the reason for my use of the Autolic test. I hate give up autos, and I hate weird looking autos. If the player puts no effort into it, I will not keep any of their cards. I did not buy a single Chris Johnson card last year, mainly for that exact reason.

Im sure as the card season progresses, we will see numbers added and all sorts of changes as the cards transfer from on card to sticker and back on card. However, as of now, this class’ graphs pass the test with flying colors.

THE 2008 AUTOLIC TEST CAN BE FOUND HERE

(CLICK TO ENLARGE)