Category Archives: NFL Preview

The Official 2010 SCU NFL Picks Post

Posted on by
2

The NFL Season is here, and as I always like to do, its time to lay down my choices for the way the season is going to shake out. I am not shy about admitting that I completely suck at predictions like this, even though I was relatively close with my picks last year. Because kickoff is tonight, I figured it was time to go right into it here, as well as give you guys a shot at making your own picks.

This season is definitely going to be full of surprises, especially when you consider how many of the teams recently drafting near the top of the first round have really made a complete turnaround. The Texans were drafting at number 1 in 2006 and now they are widely considered to be a playoff team. New Orleans was drafting number 2 and they are the defending champs, something that Im sure the 2006 Saints fans would have laughed at you about if you had suggested its possibility.

As I did last year, I will focus highly on rookie performance with the weekly Rookie Royal Rumble posts, and I may consider bringing back the value bumps if my time allows me to do so. Check back every Monday for that commentary to give your own thoughts or to debate my observations.

Without further adieu, here is my official slate of picks:

AFC North Champion: Baltimore Ravens
AFC East Champion: New England Patriots
AFC South Champion: Indianapolis Colts
AFC West Champion: San Diego Chargers
AFC Wild Card: Houston Texans
AFC Wild Card: New York Jets

AFC Championship Game: Chargers vs. Ravens
AFC Champion: Ravens

NFC North Champion: Green Bay Packers
NFC East Champion: Dallas Cowboys
NFC South Champion: New Orleans Saints
NFC West Champion: San Fransisco 49ers
NFC Wild Card: Minnesota Vikings
NFC Wild Card: Atlanta Falcons

NFC Championship Game: Cowboys vs Saints
NFC Champion: Saints

Super Bowl Champion: Ravens

NFL MVP: Aaron Rodgers
NFL ROY: Ryan Mathews

I really think the Ravens have one of the most high powered offensive attacks in the league, and unlike some of the other NFC teams, they have a tremendous defense to match. The Packers are a popular pick because of a similar situation, but I don’t think they will hold up through the playoffs. They came on very strong at the end of 2009, but werent able to capitalize away at Arizona, when they definitely should have walked out of there with a convincing win. They did improve their OL in the draft this year, but I still think that someone finds a way to beat them early in the playoffs, at home. Look at what happened to them when the Vikings rolled into lambeau back a few years ago. It wont be the Vikings this time, but it will be someone else. As for the Saints making it back to the biggest stage in the world, I think its tough to count them out with how many people they are bringing back from last year. They look great, as good as the Ravens or the Chargers, and I am definitely expecting them to repeat as NFC champs.

I already cant wait for Sunday and its only Thursday, Saturday is definitely going to be an exercise in patience. Its going to be nice having a day of rest, playing with Noah and watching all the action. Here is to another great season, because there may not be one next year.

The SCU 2009 NFL Preview, Or Why I Suck At Prognosticating

Posted on by
Reply

Finally, after a wasteland of boringness, football is back and raring to go. Kickoff is less than a week from today, and I am ready to jump out of my chair and start running crazy go nuts down the aisles here at work. Saturday is going to be much worse for me than any other day, you know, just like the kid who knows that the next day is his birthday. This year should be one of the more interesting years of football in recent memory, mainly because of a few factors that seem to be snowballing in awesomeness for the 2009 season.

First we have Favre-o-mania, again, only this time he is playing for my team. I don’t think he is going to go crazy like a few sportscasters would like him to, but he should add a few wins to the team if he manages to stay healthy. I hear while rehabbing his shoulder, he delivered twins from a woman at the gym, saved the life of his personal trainer with the heimlich maneuver, and still had time to shoot three wrangler jeans commercials. Wow, Derek Jeter eat your heart out!

We also have the Motor City Kitties coming off the worst season in NFL history. They have a new rookie QB starting for them, a few new weapons to play with, but most likely are just going to be another crappy team in a very tough division. They shouldn’t lose all their games again this year, obviously, but it could still be quite tough for them to break 4 wins while playing the AFC North for the non-conference games this year.

Of course, wunderkind Tom Brady is back from his week one destruction last year, and looks to be like he is on track for a normal season. He had a scare during pre-season, but should be close 100% when everything gets going. I don’t think he is going to be breaking any records this year, but the Pats should have ANOTHER contender this year.

Im going to make a few predictions, but don’t think of me as a person who knows anything about forecasting the NFL. Plus, when all it takes is one injury to ruin a season, anything is possible.

AFC East Champs: Patriots
AFC North Champs: Steelers
AFC South Champs: Colts
AFC West Champs: Chargers
AFC Wild Card: Ravens
AFC Wild Card: Dolphins
AFC Super Bowl: Chargers

NFC East Champs: Eagles
NFC North Champs: Vikings
NFC South Champs: Falcons
NFC West Champs: Cardinals
NFC Wild Card: Packers
NFC Wild Card: Cowboys
NFC Super Bowl: Eagles

Super Bowl Champs: Chargers

NFL MVP: Peyton Manning

NFL OFF ROY: Mark Sanchez
NFL DEF ROY: Curry

Im sure that come January, im going to look like as much of an NFL idiot as I usually do, but its still fun to guess. I think that the rookies should have one of the most productive years of the past few drafts, especially with two starting rookie QBs from week one, and a crop of RBs and WRs that should be pretty involved in this year’s offensive schemes.

I think Sanchez will have the best year for the rookies, only because he has a better offensive line than Stafford and the lions. I think the Jets defense will win them some games, so Sanchez will look better than he actually is – a la Flacco last year. The only wild card in all of this is Percy Harvin, as he seems like the Vikings will give him a lot of looks as a Wildcat/RB/Slot Receiver type guy. He will also be returning some kicks, so he could have a big impact. The odd thing is, there hasn’t been a WR ROY since Boldin in 2003, so its not likely that he can put up numbers to eclipse people like Sanchez who are on a nationwide stage.

As for the NFL MVP, I think Manning should be at the top of everyone’s list, every year. He has a great crop of guys surrounding him, and he is back at 100% this year after playing hurt last year. Again, like Brady, I don’t think he will be setting any records, but he has potential to put up staggering numbers as usual. Plus, with Donald Brown in the backfield to compliment Addai, he may not have to throw as much to be effective.

When it comes to the Super Bowl, I think a lot of people are picking the Chargers, and I am on that bandwagon. I think this is Rivers’ year, and now that Chokey McMerriman is back and rallying the troops, the defense should be back on track, especially with the addition of Larry English. The only piece that the chargers may be missing is a big name receiver who draws the game to himself, but that could develop in Vincent Jackson, building on the framework from last year.

Overall, I am just hoping for the Vikings to not fall on their face as they usually do when the pressure of being a contender looms. I think Adrian Peterson should have a good season again, but I don’t think that its going to be enough to go deep into the playoffs again. Even though Favre should add a few wins, I am not confident he will last, let alone make it into weeks 17 and 18 of the season. Therefore they had better hope that Sage or TJack are ready to step up. That scares me.

To answer the one question that is asked each year, you can bet your ass that I am ready for some football.

Looking At The 2009 Class And What They Bring To The Table

Posted on by
Reply

Before each year comes along, as I have said many times before, people choose their “guys” to focus on for the upcoming year. Most of the time it’s the team you cheer for, other times it’s a prospecting move based on projected production. Based on these types of practices, here are my opinions on which of the 2009 rookies will produce the best results for the people in the second category.

Matt Stafford

I am not of the group of people who says you start an RC quarterback unless you absolutely have to. The Lions may be in that place, but I just don’t see Stafford being all that productive – yet. The Lions are still a god awful team, and although Stafford has Pettigrew and Johnson to throw to now, its not going to help when you don’t have the experience. Ryan was the exception to the rule, so don’t start putting the eggs in this basket until you see some actual stats. If he does start, expect more INTs than touchdowns, especially with the state of the Lions’ O-Line.

Mark Sanchez

The Jets are a much, much, MUCH better team than the Lions, but I still put the same predictions on Sanchez. He shouldn’t start right away, but even if he does, he wont have much to write home about. As of right now, I cannot name a single Jets WR without going to NFL.com first. That will hurt him. A lot.

Knowshon Moreno

If the Broncos still had Cutler, and they somehow managed to get Moreno too, he would be my guy to win rookie of the year for 2009. With Neckbeard at the helm, it’s a little different, though Brandon Marshall should attract a lot of attention. I expect Moreno to have a good year, and possibly still win the hardware, but its been all or nothing these last few years with RC RBs. As of now, his prices are ridiculous, but after they come down, if they come down, don’t hesitate to pick up some stuff if its within your means.

Aaron Curry

Curry could be the next Urlacher, but as a defensive player, his value will never be at the same level as the others. He also wont have many big cards outside of his rookie year, as most of the companies focus on offensive players after the first year. Curry has massive potential, and will most likely be the defensive rookie of the year, but the hobby wont notice him past a few dollars here and there.

Michael Crabtree

Crabtree, right now, is my top candidate for rookie of the year, though the Niners’ QB situation is quite scary right now. I still think that he has the tools to be on or above Johnson’s level, but without someone to throw him the ball, he wont be anywhere close. Next year when the Niners draft someone high in the first round, things may change. Oh, and just thinking about the fact that the Raiders passed him up for Heyward-Bey still makes me laugh. What idiots.

Jeremy Maclin

Brian Westbrook has been the man to stop in Philly for the last few years, but he is getting on in age and in condition. I would say Maclin should be a great target for McNabb, but he had a number of concerns with route running and other parts of his game that made him less attractive than Crabtree. I say he has an Eddie Royal type season, with some good performances, but he probably wont be the most valuable guy to keep until later in the next few years.

Percy Harvin

All I have heard over the last few weeks since the draft is that Harvin is the most explosive player in the class. Platitudes aside, I think he will be a good contributor as a 3 or even a 2, but he wont be anything special until he gets his brains behind him on the field. He seems like he has amazing talent, but just doesn’t use his head. Kind of like Randy Moss in that respect. We saw what happens when Moss applies himself. He is the best in the game. Harvin could do that, though not in the same expected production pool.

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Don’t even think he is going to be anything worth your time at first. I see Troy Williamson bust potential, but who knows, he could get lucky. I see more of DeSean Jackson’s production, at Calvin Johnson’s draft pick slot.

Chris Wells

Beanie could be the next Chris Johnson. He has amazing talent, is with a great team with a great line, and most importantly he played against more top talent in College than Brown or the other later backs in the draft. I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes the league for a Johnson style wild ride – that is – if he can stay healthy.

Regardless of who you pick, remember that you should be following the tree of position worth. More importantly, you shouldn’t pay more for a WR than you would for a RB, because in the long run, it will not be a good decision. Also, pick someone you may have a chance to get some stuff of after his rookie year. Usually the companies only pick people who they know are going to bring value to a set, and the fourth round QB you stocked up on now, probably wont have many cards. Anyone else ready for some football??

2009 NFL Mock Draft – SCU Version 1.0

Posted on by
Reply

This year’s draft is one that I have been focusing on for a long, long time. Too long. The reason is that I think this draft could be one that shapes the future for a few teams more so than a lot of the drafts turn out to do. We are coming off of a season where, for the first time, a team went 0-16, and that means that the gap between the good teams and the bad teams is growing. At least from where I stand. Also, six of the ten teams in the first picks in the draft were there last year (not counting any trades), and with this being a draft heavy on good OTs, I assume this could be a good time to get in on the ground level. Now, I am no expert, and I barely know my stuff, but I have done some homework on this, and I think its time for me to list what I believe will happen now that the free agency picture is a little more clear.

1. Detroit Lions – OT Jason Smith, BAYLOR

I think that when everything is said and done, the Lions are going to realize that this isnt the year to pick a QB with the first pick. There are a number of good people coming down the pipeline next year, and this will give them a chance to anchor the line that gave up all those sacks last year. Plus, with another pick at #20, Josh Freeman or Mark Sanchez may be there to build the team around for a lot cheaper. Smith can start from day one, and should be a great player.

2. St Louis Rams – OT Eugene Monroe, UVA

The Rams need a guy that can take the place of Orlando Pace, and Eugene Monroe is that guy. He is a big dude, and may be the better of the two tackles that have emerged at the top of the list. As I said before, this is a tackle heavy draft, and Monroe is definitely one of the guys I would expect to have a very good career. These guys are starters from day one, as also said before, and the Rams will need that.

3. Kansas City Chiefs – LB Aaron Curry, WAKE FOREST

Man, Curry is a beast. The guy just has a ton of potential at linebacker for the Chiefs, especially on a defense that really needs the help. I originally thought Maybin would be here as the consensus pick, but the combine wasn’t as friendly to him as it could have been. Curry has as much upside as Patrick Willis, and should be quicker and and better at a key position.

4. Seattle Seahawks – QB Matthew Stafford, GEORGIA

We all know about Matt v2.0, he is still considered to be the consensus number 1 pick, but I see him dropping a bit now as things move forward. We can see that Hasslebeck is getting older and hasn’t necessarily produced the way the league demands as of late. Without Alexander in the backfield, the QB position becomes even more important than it already is. Too bad there isnt a good enough RB to take here, because the Seahawks could use one of them too. Now that Housh is the new seattle man, I think they want someone who will get him the ball.

5. Cleveland Browns – OLB, DE Aaron Maybin, PSU

Maybin was as high as number one on some boards, and I don’t think the Browns could pass up one of the best players in the draft, especially with their ailing defense. Maybin will be a star, and has put on some weight since the combine, so you can expect that many a big hits are in his future. He could be the next big name on defense, I would be shocked if he was a bust.

6. Cincinatti Bengals – WR Michael Crabtree, TX TECH

Crabtree is the best player in the draft in my opinion, and the foot injury isnt a bad enough thing to keep him out of the top 10. If he falls this far, he wont get past Cincy, who just lost their best receiver. The guy is a ridiculous talent, and may be on the same level of potential as Calvin Johnson was. I would think this guy could be a 100 catch 15TD player down the road, and boy does this team need him.

7. Oakland Raiders – WR Jeremy Maclin, MISSOURI

Wow, what a crapfest the Raiders have become. Thank you Al Davis. The Raiders have no one left in their receiving corps, and Maclin could be that big play guy they are looking for to help out Russell. God knows he needs it. They could also go OLine here, but im not sure if the Raiders draft people are that smart. Maclin is a rocket off the line with a 4.4 40, and you can expect that the upside on him will be enough for the Raiders to take him.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars – OT Michael Oher, OLE MISS

Jacksonville needs some playmakers to help Garrard, but they also need to protect him. Their line has been suspect over the years and Oher may be the guy to fix it. I would have put Smith here, but the guy is a washout, much to Oher’s benefit. If Maclin makes it down here, the Jags will take him, but I would expect them to definitely want to shore up problems up front as well.

9. Green Bay Packers – DE Brian Orakpo, UT

The Packers may be switching to a 3-4 next year, and Orakpo should fit into that scheme from what I have seen. He has the speed and the know how to be a great OLB or DE, and you can believe that the Packers need the help with their awful rush defense from last year.

10. San Fransisco 49ers – DE BJ Raji, BC

Holy crap, this pick could be the most up in the air for the entire draft. The Niners have a huge amount of holes and a QB that hasn’t had a healthy season since he was drafted. I could say Sanchez would go here, but they may just say fuck it and go for the offensive line. They could use a DE as well, so Raji would make sense along with Everette Brown. Raji is a good player that can go inside at DT as well, so versatility could be his best asset.

That’s my picks for right now, I may do this again as the pro days shape up. Feel free to offer your ideas, but realize that I am not an expert on this stuff in any way. I really hope that things work out for these top picks because if they go as planned, the Vikings could end up with someone much better than I expected. Either way, April is a long time away, and things change daily with this. All I can say is that I am pumped.