As much as I would love to focus on the good for all the records that have been set for the debut release of WWE Prizm, unfortunately there are a lot of problems with the way it is performing on the secondary market. We have seen huge, gigantic, enormous sales at the top end of this release, but as I have mentioned multiple times, the stuff on the bottom tiers of this set have settled hard. There are a few reasons for this, and most of them are pretty typical of every Prizm set across every major sport it has been released in. Its time to walk through some of these situations.
Market Population Makeup
WWE is still very much a niche market, and unlike the NBA and NFL, there isnt a built in population of hundreds of thousands of people that are invested across all aspects of the spectrum. Usually, there are a few levels to a Prizm release, and all of them drive specific facets of the secondary sales we see on eBay.
First, there are the high end investors, who chase the top cards of the top players. They will use apps like CardLadder, SlabStox and other platforms to determine the best places to buy and when to buy them. Most of them will buy cards they have targeted for each previous year, and prospect on a few rookies. Then there are the mid tier collectors and flippers who want to get some of the stars of the set, grade them and flip them for a profit. They target specific types of cards that they can get at a reasonable price, and can use the graded card market to make money. Then there are the set collectors – the people who go through each year and buy cards to tick off their sheet. Believe it or not, the sets drive a huge portion of low end business in each release, something that even a market explosion couldnt destroy.
Because each of these market segments have built an ecosystem, its easy to see where each Prizm year has been ultimately successful to a vast degree. Right now, Wrestling has none of that built, and many of the previous market has been so angry with the increase in wax prices, they havent even bothered to see how easy it is to find deals for the people that they collect. Some have already started to come back to the fold, as the secondary market takes shape, pushing autograph cards higher in value than they usually are selling for in other sports.
Selling the Top Tier Cards in the Product
Parts of the Product: Gold /10, Black 1/1, Color Blast, FOTL exclusives, Sparkle Exclusives
If we want a representation of where Prizm WWE has been the most successful, its at the top end of the scale, with so many of the big named stars selling for vast sums of money. We have already seen more five figure sales in this product than in any other modern product in WWE history. For a pack pulled raw card, that can likely be extended to ever in the history of wrestling.
Most of the main investors in the product have come in from other sports with lots of weight to throw around in a burgeoning space with very little competition. As I have said on a few podcasts recently, it can take as little as 100k to really tip some dominoes in this dark corner of the hobby.
So far, we havent seen the main cards hit the market in any real way that makes sense, and that’s because there is a tried and true method for selling the top cards in a Prizm set. Rip the wax, assess the cards, grade the big ones and send it to an auction house, or try your luck on eBay. Selling big cards in an auction format on eBay probably isnt the best way to do it, especially if they are raw examples. As much as I hate grading, its almost a necessity with any chrome stock product. Because people are still so unsure of what is going on with WWE, the desire to wait out a PSA sub isnt as prevalent as it would be with NBA.
As a result, we have seen some of the major cards sell raw for giant prices, but likely not the full realized value until they are graded. I hate grading, and I feel like a dirty bastard telling people to grade cards, but the pragmatist in me is unable to avoid this part of the equation.
For those that are unsure of how to approach a card in this section, ask someone who knows what they are doing. Most of the breakers who pull these cards have rarely done wrestling and will not have good info to provide. If I pulled a major card like this, I would grade it through one of the major hubs, and start looking on instagram for people who have a ton of high end wrestling stuff on their page. I would send them messages and ask if they know anyone in the market. Then start selling my ass off. If that didnt work, I would approach an auction house to see what some of the appraisals might look like through a place like Goldin, Heritage or a similarly important hobby platform. In the meantime, I would have the card up on eBay with a vastly overinflated BIN and take offers from anyone who sees it posted.
At no point would I trust an auction to sell a card that could be five figures. Its a good way to lose an absolute ton of money. People rarely have the opportunity to sell a card like this, and most are unprepared or underprepared. They post it with a stupid low BIN because they dont know what they had, or they post it for auction because they want their money now. Sometimes it pays to be patient, sometimes to the tune of thousands of dollars. Avoiding eBay auction style listings is going to be a common theme here, so just be expecting that.
Selling the Mid Tier Cards in the Product
Parts of the Product: Retail big hits, Mojo /25, White Sparkle, Big Star Orange and below
This is where things have really gotten depressing, mainly because the way people are going about these sales is not helpful to setting a market floor to prop up values, or positioning a sale to get back the most money. Prizm auctions have been poorly titled, poorly photographed, and ended at some awful times of the day. As a rule of thumb, ending auctions in the middle of the night or early in the morning is a terrible idea. Even worse, ending them at a time where a ton of other stuff is ending is a bad idea as well. Sadly, that’s exactly what has happened.
Because Wrestling has been featured with many mainstream breakers and mid tier breakers en masse for the first time, there are a lot of people buying in who were only chasing cards in the section above. It leaves a lot of credit card bills to be paid, and a lot of singles to unload. This has led to 17,000 auction style listings to be done within the first 3 weeks of the product release. You can imagine, this probably isnt the best course of action with a market that has yet to be established for a debut brand.
This begs the question of what to do with cards that arent going to bring the same type of attention that the top card will bring, and how to go about selling them to avoid a huge dip. Honestly, the best thing to do right now is hold. There are too many cards being unloaded for nothing right now, and that will slow down now that the breakers have moved onto the next releases.
Another big issue is that grading costs are exceptionally high right now, to boot. Despite GIANT conflicts of interest in the entirety of the grading business model (go search at the top if you need a refresher), the hobby responds much more appropriately to graded card examples versus raw cards. Its a shitty fact of life for most of the market right now. This means that all the cards that would have likely been graded and sold in the past are now in a weird limbo zone that is hard to navigate.
If I had one of these cards to sell, something I will have to consider in the future, the key here is to avoid dumping them in an auction, grade them if you can, and sit on the market until it shakes out a bit more. Not everyone has this luxury, but if you can find a way to make it through the next few months, a lot of this bulk action will be done, and there will be a much more open spot to unload.
Selling Everything Else
Part of the Product: ANY unnumbered Prizm cards, high numbered parallels of those stars
This is where Panini’s business model rears its ugly head. Unlike Topps, who has printed to order before things exploded, Panini has made it a point to capitalize on the popularity of their products and run presses to exploit the demand. That means that unnumbered cards can be printed to the moon, and there is no way to get a sense of how many actually exist at any time. More importantly, with a market settling the way this has been settling, these bulk cards are a dime a dozen.
For people ripping cases of Prizm, most of these cards just need to go somewhere, so they will end up dumped on eBay or sent to COMC to unload. With every set, these types of cards always drop in value, mainly because they keep showing up. There is no limit to how they go about being obtained, and there are set collectors that will build sets if things are cheap enough.
Most of us that have done any sort of engagement with Prizm wax are likely inundated with these types of cards, which include some lower numbered parallels of people that probably shouldnt have been on this checklist. Prizm has a giant list of cards included there, and it has highlighted why Topps usually avoided doing things this big.
I have actually added search terms to my saved eBay searches to avoid even seeing the bulk show up, and I assume most of the other investors have done the same long before I did. If there are people who bought in hard here, Im sorry for your loss. Its not going to get much better. Remember when the Silvers were valuable in a Prizm set? Pepperidge Farms remembers.
Understanding Where to Invest
Right now, I have been targeting very specific areas of Prizm to spend money, because there are some amazing opportunities I see with cards that are not going into my PC. I like what I am seeing on a few things, but overall, Prizm is an investor’s set. Here is where I am seeing the best places to drop a bit of money. Of course, this is just my opinion, and it should be taken as that.
As things slow down in the middle part of Prizm, I have already seen specific things starting to bounce back from the dip. Oranges are the poor man’s golds, as I have found out, and many of them are still taking in some nice values, even when sold in a stupid manner. Similarly the Blue parallels are really nice looking with the royal border, and with most of the Smackdown superstars using this color pallet for their gear, it usually looks pretty cool. Most of the major stars of today’s era can be had for cheap, and I have found myself buying them in bulk.
I have also put a huge focus on those transcendent stars that have crossed over to other areas of entertainment, as well as accomplished champions who will be a focus for years to come on the TV products. People like John Cena, Batista, Brock Lesnar, Trish Stratus, Charlotte Flair and AJ Styles. I would love to go after Steve Austin and the Rock, but they are still too high to fall into my range.
Lastly, I love rookies and exploding stars, and guys like Carmelo Hayes and Walter (now Gunther) have been some of my top targets. I would put Bron Breakker on this list too, but like Rock and Austin, he is out of my range for this project.
If you want to go back and look at some of the other stuff I have written about Prizm, I discuss some of the things to look for pretty frequently. Big sales of top tier cards can start frenzies of FOMO in the hobby so be ready to rock when that happens. Other than that, just keep your eyes open and always have an exit strategy. There is still a ton of fun left to be had in Prizm, and hopefully it starts sooner rather than later.