Ready or not, the 2011 football card season is upon us. Cards from the mostly irrelevant SAGE hit series hit ebay last night, thus starting the most tumultuous year in football cards since the last time there was a work stoppage. This year is going to be a true test of staying power for the card industry in this landscape, as its obvious there will be problems if no games are played. Although some experts are saying something will be worked out between the now decertified NFLPA and the NFL, the prospects of a truncated season are becoming more of a reality with each passing day.

That being said, even if there were no problems with the labor situation in the NFL, there would still be a ton of questions going into 2011. We have just completed our first year with two licensed companies instead of three, and many collectors who I have talked to seem to be as bored as I am with the results. Because we have a situation where we now combine lack of innovation with a lack of games being played, here are my questions for the upcoming product slate.

How will each company adapt, if at all, to the work stoppage?

If games go unplayed, all three companies will need to adjust their game plan. The interest in the rookies, as well as the general interest in the cards will be wholly diminshed because there will be no on field production to drive product sales. This is probably going to lead to more programs like the Gridiron Giveaway to lure collectors in with promises of SWAG, but I have a feeling that it will only be Topps that actually takes charge and tries to inspire interest in the cards rather than just HOPING that everything goes okay with the normal calendar. Panini is infamous for resting on non-existant laurels, and I don’t see that changing. With a work stoppage also looming in basketball, they may not have the luxury of resting any more. I honestly hope both companies come up with something, but at this point I have more faith in Press Pass than I do in Panini.

Will there be a Rookie Premiere with no NFLPA?

We all hate that swatches from the rookies arent game used until a minimum of the first product of the second year of their career. However, this doesn’t mean that the Rookie Premiere is probably AS IMPORTANT as the actual draft for the prospects of the card season. Without a premiere, not only will the rookies not have cards with their pro uniforms until they have an individual shoot with the company, but no swatches will be present in any of the products they appear in. Personally, I couldn’t care any less about a lack of rookie jersey cards, as hopefully that will limit the thousands of crap jersey cards that Panini seems to still think are good draws for product content. However, I see the need for them in the long run. I have to believe the rookie premiere will happen one way or the other, even with the NFLPA in limbo. Its too important of an event, and some way, it will get done.

Will the product boredom bug be cured this coming year?

Five Star was the only product of the year to feature hard signed star autos and older player autos, and this absence of hard signed cards left a horrible taste in the mouths of people like me. Panini functions 100% on labels for non-rookie signatures, and with the exception of two or three HOF class cards, nothing was hard signed. This led to an overwhelming feeling of boredom in the products that were released, compounded by the cookie cutter nature of Panini’s 4/1/$90 calendar. If you take the run down of Panini’s product slate, almost every product was based on the 4/1/$90 formula, with a box containing 4 hits, at least one auto and costing 90 bucks. The problem was that of the four hits, three of them were terribly conceived jersey cards that rarely sold above 10 bucks, and the autos ranged from nicely done to some of the worst ever. With a weak offensive rookie class, there needed to be more focus on creating awesome cards, and with the exception of the base topps brands and chrome, five star, and Finest, not much got more than a yawn from me. Even the biggest set of Panini’s card year was a complete fail, only made more irrelevant by Topps’ abililty to throw together a product like Five Star with 100% hard signed cards. With the previews already out for both base Topps and Prestige, all I am seeing is a lack of commitment to doing something new and fresh, something that could spell disaster for both of the NFL licensed companies.

Will Upper Deck be a Factor in 2011?

If there is one company that stands to benefit from the work stoppage, its Upper Deck. Because design and concept has always been their strong suit, the lack of an NFL license doesn’t affect their ability to design great looking cards. Although their calendar was plagued by cost issues and delays, we still got to see flashes of the amazing stuff they put out, year after year. Because College Football will play on without the NFL, I can expect UD to try to build off of its success in a few areas in which they did well. They have already promised a new type of trading card that has never been seen before in 2011 UD NCAA Football, a claim that peaks my interest after how awesome the Shadow Boxes were the last time they made such an annoucement. I know that everyone gets that I would trade Panini’s license for HALF of what UD brought to the table, but with the way money is surely going over in Carlsbad, its still a crap shoot to see if they can hang on. If I were UD, I would come stronger than I had ever come before, release a similarly small calendar, and make it so awesome that no one can ignore its greatness. If it takes six months, fine, just do it.

How Will Rookie Cards Perform Without On Field Production?

Usually, draft order and team affiliation drive value prior to the season starting. Running backs and Quarterbacks have the top values, depending on where they were drafted and possible potential when they do get on the field. Im curious to see what happens when a whole year functions like this. Obviously guys like Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert and Mark Ingram are looking to be the top value guys of the class, but without field production to match, things could get dicey. Tebow was a top value guy, despite being polarizing, and when he was benched for most of the year, his value cooled off until the last three games. If this situation didn’t play out because of a work stoppage, Tebow rides high the whole year. Who knows. Would they still be rookies next year too, kind of like Blake Griffin and his injury?

Who will win the 2011 Card Season?

Topps OVERWHELMINGLY won 2010 with the products they put out. Finest was great, Chrome was amazing, Topps base was a fresh take on a perennial winner, and Five Star was the design and look champion of the year by a mile. From what Topps has said in the times that I have talked to them, all of this was done on the short notice they had upon license renewal at the beginning of 2010. I can only imagine what is going to happen with a full year to plan for the next. In my interview with Clay Luraschi, he mentioned that Five Star would have friends on the 2011 calendar, and I expect that eventually, we may see a calendar similar to Upper Deck’s Epic 2009 calendar with 8 hard signed products. It will take a while, but at least things are heading in the right direction. If Panini continues to put out cookie cutter based products for 2011 and 2012, I have to believe people are going to grow tired when they see where Topps is going. Although Topps will always have their products that I cant stand (Triple Threads, Bowman Sterling, Supreme), I have to say that they are the better company by at least two full miles.

Overall, we are in for a wild ride, season or no season. I guess we will just have to wait and find out what happens come April 6, and then start counting the days until kickoff. It may be a few months away, it may be a year. Regardless, a work stoppage in baseball back in 1994 ended my initial run in the hobby, I have a feeling the NFL will lose a considerable amount of fans if this season is cancelled too. Less NFL fans means less collectors, and that is never a good thing.