Three months ago, if I said that RGIII and Andrew Luck both would have around equal value going into the rookie premiere, I would have been met with laughter. Funny thing is, its not like Luck has dropped or anything, its just that Griffin has turned it on like I have never seen before. I honestly get a lot of hobby buzz similar to Vince Young and Micahel Vick, two very mobile quarterbacks of the same style. If you remember back, Vick especially had ridiculous values going into the season (and sill does), but he was one of the only ones that year. With Luck also in the mix, its rare that TWO prospects have this kind of value.

Based on what the scouts are saying, both have potential to be game changing QBs for very different reasons. Both have a great football IQ, and both are very intelligent players who show tremendous decision making skills to match their raw talent. Luck is more of the typical NFL style QB, where Griffin tends to be more of the new breed of players like Cam Newton who have both the speed and the arm. Interestingly enough, Luck had a great 40 time at the combine, and from what the media has reported, isnt going to be a guy that will hang around in the pocket if things break down. Think of Aaron Rodgers, but more agile.

Here are some ending values to compare:

2011 Press Pass Andrew Luck Gold Auto BGS 9.5

2011 Press Pass Andrew Luck Platinum Auto 1/1

2011 Leaf Draft Robert Griffin Superfractor Auto 1/1

2011 Upper Deck Robert Griffin Ultimate Auto RC

I rarely buy into hype, whether its based on fact or on intangibles, but both have caught my attention to the point where the current prices dont necessarily scare me. The only thing is that Luck has Reggie Wayne and company to throw to, while Griffin has little to nothing. Wayne is getting on in the age column, and that wont help. Funny enough, there is ZERO running game on either the Colts or Redskins to speak of, which means that Griffin may have a slight edge being a running and option style player.

Im going to be honest and say that the rookie cards that will accompany both guys will be some of the most expensive since Reggie Bush, and that doesnt come along often in Football. Because Football doesnt have the same baking time necessary to make an impact the way it is in Baseball, the values will fluctuate more based on the early performance than ever. With Cam Newton’s record breaking season sitting at the peak of the value pyramid, these two guys have some major shoes to fill.

Additionally, there are two other QBs in Tannehill and Weeden that will be competing for time on Sportscenter, and though I am not at all sold on either, collectors dont seem to care. Weeden scares me the most of the four, if not only because of his age, and that is a big red flag that collectors should consider. At the end of his first rookie contract, he will be pushing 33, which means he will have little time to get his feet underneath him. Playing on a team like Cleveland, which has even fewer weapons to play with as Indy and Washington, Weeden will need Trent Richardson to have an Adrian Peterson style rookie season to be even close to successful.

I would be shocked if all four guys end up with the kind of success that Newton or Dalton had in their rookie campaigns, but until then, the collecting base should revel in the fact that there are almost 7 box saving type of players. The rookie premiere will house a DEEP offensive rookie class, which can usually signal a very successful year. My only drawback to this is that good autographs will need to be spread out more to accommodate the crazy 18 product calendar that each manufacturer will be slated to release. I remember back to the beginning of 2011, where the Topps products all had a built in SP list of the top guys, whose signatures were rare and valuable. Although I expect that 2012 will be a banner year, this could be detrimental to the people who break fewer than 3 or 4 boxes at a time.

We shall see if Topps and Panini can live up to the potential, as there is more possible talent in this class than ever.