Breaking Down Fanatics’ Acquisition of Topps From All Sides

The last two years of trading cards has been historic. First, a value boom of epic proportion has brought trading cards and sports collectibles to the forefront of the national conversation. Then, as if things couldnt get more crazy, Fanatics secured a deal with the three biggest leagues to have exclusive licensing rights for 20(!!) years. Now, we have come to find out that Topps has been acquired, putting them at the top of the card mountain for the foreseeable future. Funny thing is, I dont even think we are close to being done. I want to look at this acquisition from the different sides of the hobby and industry.

Impact to the Industry

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Fanatics’ entry into trading cards is a new era, and that hasnt changed since the announcement a few months ago. The problem for Fanatics wasnt money or distribution, but the people needed to design and deliver the massive amounts of content needed for a trading card company. For people to expect Fanatics to just come up with a plethora of new brands that would continue with the hobby’s current trajectory is relatively laughable. They needed people, they needed intellectual property, they needed a crew. With Topps, they not only got all of that, but they got some of the best there is.

Flagship Topps baseball is a historic legacy that needed to continue. The hobby was in jeopardy of losing that history when Fanatics stepped in, and thankfully we arent going to lose the iconic aspect of that again. I doubt there were many industry professionals that wanted to see the end of Topps’ place in that part of the trading card world. Its rare that you have 70 years of history just wiped away, and this merger prevented that from happening.

In buying Topps, Fanatics also gains access to some of the top card designers around. Topps, for the most part, has brought together a collection of people that all have the chops to do what needs to be done. I believe when Upper Deck lost their licenses back around 2009-2010, Topps went and signed those people up. Since that time frame, the best looking cards in the industry have undoubtedly been on the Topps side of the equation. That’s why I have always gravitated towards their goods. Its not saying Panini and Upper Deck havent made improvements since that time, but Topps remains the benchmark.

Additionally, Topps has a digital division that might be unmatched across the entirety of the industry. With the recent inclusion of NFTs to their portfolio, it has only gotten stronger. We know that Fanatics sees digital cards as a huge frontier, and I think that of all the assets out there to buy, Topps is most mature.

This doesnt look like the last of Fanatics’ desire to consolidate, especially given what Michael Rubin has stated in different interviews since the announcement was made. I fully expect we start to hear more and more about this type of M&A pretty regularly as we get closer to 2023 and beyond. If consolidation is the plan, we could easily see them target more card companies that have staff and IP to give. I believe Panini is likely off the table now that Topps is under the Fanatics umbrella, but a company like Upper Deck still seems very attractive. Sets like Exquisite and SPA are still among the most valuable IP out there, because newer collectors have seen Jordan, LeBron and Kobe stuff shoot to the moon from those products. Similarly, the contracts with Jordan, Lebron and Tiger are all insanely valuable, especially because pro-uniform autographs are non-existent since the lost license to Panini took effect.

Impact to the Hobby

I have been a staunch critic of exclusive licenses since the first one was signed. However, now that the exclusives are here to stay for the next 20 plus years, there isnt much we can do. This feels different because of the length of time, and the potential to buy out companies that will bring their IP to an exclusive. Instead of locking people out, its possible we see Fanatics M&A plan work to the advantage of the collector. Owning these giant licenses for such a gargantuan length of time breeds new need to negotiate.

We all know that from their press release, the plan is to use the Topps name on products going forward. Good thing. We also should get collector favorites in NFL and NBA that have been gone for YEARS. Another good thing. The chance to continue collecting products around since we were kids? Yup, good thing. Is it possible that Fanatics buys the IP or ability to license it for their use given the timeframe of their relationship with the leagues? Who knows? All big question marks that we need to have sorted out over the next few years.

Similarly, we saw that the press release also mentioned Hobby Shops in their language, something that a number of pundits were wondering about. No one wants to see a neighborhood shop close their doors, most are family run, and some have been around since the last collecting boom in the 90s. If Fanatics buying Topps means they get to stick around? I love it.

There are aspects of the hobby I hope will change with this consolidation plan, as Ive mentioned in previous posts. I dont like that online retailers and distributors can collude to fix prices. They can artificially set a floor or raise a ceiling without much effort, and due to limited supply and overwhelming demand, right now there are no consequences. If Fanatics is going to remove that from their model, I think that’s a good idea. Similarly, Topps comes with baked in people that have decades of experience in this part of the industry. Im curious if this plan changes to accommodate the relationships Topps brings to the table. For collectors, this might be the most challenging part of the acquisition to understand, but its one that could hurt us the most. There are people in power right now that have exponential influence over a speculative bubble that seems to have formed. If Fanatics truly wants to move on from the way things are done today, this is the one thing I hope will change.

Where Do We Go From Here?

The next 4 years are going to be a whirlwind of change. Change in the way people look at cards, the values, and what Fanatics plans to do with their vision.

As mentioned, I think the M&A continues to a very high degree. I also believe that we arent done hearing about card company acquisitions into the Fanatics family of products. Upper Deck seems like the next logical choice, given their IP and ePack. If Michael Rubin’s philosophy of increasing access to product and going mainstream, they will need all the help they can get. Its a big vision to make work in practice.

Peripheral hobby businesses like COMC might be on the menu too. Fulfillment is a huge deal, especially for single card shipments, so this could be something that Fanatics wants to include in their plan. Same goes for things like group breaks or general crowd sourcing of product. All those things are on a white board somewhere, surely.

Lastly is the grading, and I think thats where this gets very complicated. Fanatics is climbing a mountain to get to a consolidated retail empire. Collector’s Universe (PSA) is climbing the same mountain on the grading and valuation side, acquiring businesses like Card Ladder and the like. I could see Fanatics take over Beckett to get BGS, and that might be as big a deal as getting Upper Deck under their watch.

Either way, this is going to be one of the most fun times we have seen in the hobby, ever. Hope you guys are ready!

The Importance of the NYT Luka Doncic Article

Just wanted to take a minute, because this morning’s article in the New York times is a very important expose into an area of the hobby I have been screaming about for years. Apparently my screams were so loud that Jason Bailey, the author, reached out to get my take on the situation. Obviously my familiarity with the situation is understated, but my familiarity with the practices that could lead to inauthentic signatures being sold to the public in trading card form is extensive.

Here is what I didnt expect – the author had done research in a way that made me feel like he was coming from a place of knowledge. Not just knowledge, but understanding. Ive talked to a few reporters in the past, but this is the first time someone had come prepped with context and general familiarity beyond just reading a few articles online. Not only that, but Jason had talked to a bunch of people, most of whom are featured in the piece.

That’s not why this article is important, though. This article is important because for the first time in a very, very long time, there is genuine interest from the mainstream on trading cards. In addition to being exciting, this situation could and should be problematic for individuals and companies that have exploited the underbelly of the hobby for years.

It used to be that any shady dealings were swept under the rug, either by the hobby media or others, leaving the gross details to be hashed out in message board threads and blogs who werent beholden to the machine. Now, with some cards selling for prices that are akin to buying a house on the beach in California, the eyes are finally starting to open up to what has been going on for decades in the dark.

Ive said for many years that card industry people can be some of the worst people in any industry there is. Because the scale was always so small, but profits could be big enough to live a luxury life, too many keen students found ways to take advantage of the uninformed or the unindoctrinated. Even today, multi-million dollar sales go down regularly, selling cards that years ago I would have put smack dab in the middle of my weekly scam alert posts.

To think that we could go this long without some sort of federal interference is shocking. Sure, the government has raided NSCC shows, and eBay has finally banned well known shill bid aficionados, but there is so much that still needs to be addressed. A reckoning is likely already in process, and the fact that the NYT is dedicating its resources and talent to get to the bottom of it is refreshing and welcome.

For years, every card based story was how once booming shops or shows were now boring and dead, instead of focusing on the people who have made a career out of swindling or manipulating a naive population of collectors. Im not at all saying that Panini or Topps are in that bucket, but this venn diagram isnt two separate circles either. The article covers a few of the major scandals we have seen, but Panini and Topps both enable a cycle of abuse from the players that I hope is closed by Fanatics’ pending takeover.

Just a small example is covered here, with autograph signings being done through the mail instead of in the presence of a company employee. When authenticity is called into question, it takes a mountain of evidence to call out the misdeeds. Because the player signs the affidavit, and the player’s association stands firmly at their back, the players create a feedback loop between the accuser, the card company and their agents.

Basically, the card companies will go to the agents with the passive accusations from the hobby, not directly accusing them in most cases. The agent will go to the player or say they go to the player, who assures them the autographs are legitimate, regardless if that is true. The agent points to the affidavit, and the card company reports to the hobby that everything is kosher.

Its a situation where the punishment isnt even a big enough monetary situation for the athlete to care about the result of the investigation, either. If anything, for most athletes, avoiding autographs would likely be a relief rather than a punishment. The article even references this feeling clearly in a quote from people who know Luka Doncic and his regimen.

Sadly, sports cards and memorabilia has always been overshadowed by the felons and criminals that populate its midst, even if the ultra-majority of collectors and many industry people are nice and good people. I hope the NYT continues to shed light on these types of situations, unafraid that their piece will damage relationships with card company ad buys or free product from the manufacturers. This is what we need, and I am very happy to be a part of it.

Processing Fanatics’ CEO Michael Rubin’s Appearance on CNBC

Yesterday I wrote about the consolidation path that was outlined across a few different pieces published in the Wall Street Journal and CNBC. Across those pieces, the industry was clued into the first list of priorities that are on the radar for Fanatics as they prepare their industrywide takeover in 2026.

To compliment the articles, Fanatics CEO Michael Rubin was a guest on CNBC to detail their recent Series A investment and $10.4B valuation.

During the video, there were a few interesting points that he seemed to be very up front about, and I want to take some time to offer some reaction and temper some assumptions based on what has been shared.

Major Question: Will this license exclusive across MLB, NFL, and NBA be reminiscent of what we have seen in the past exclusives from Panini, Topps or Upper Deck?

Rubin’s Explanation seems to be pretty explicit – these licenses are just a small piece of the puzzle, which I discussed in detail in the previous post. Its clear that he sees the creation of his new business as an opportunity to revolutionize the industry in a way that has never been attempted. Collectors to this point have had a predictable reaction of fear and anxiety, but also one of limited scope. Most collectors dont seem to understand the scope or scale of what is going to be happening here. Fanatics is about to become a world leader in collectibles and sports memorabilia, having already been a world leader in fan apparel. This isnt just about trading cards, this is about a creation of a new giant entity in our world that will permeate almost every area of our collecting consciousness. Looking at this approach with only trading cards in mind is like looking at Microsoft only from the context of Outlook Email.

Major Question: What happens if this fails?!?

Again, scope and scale. This isnt like we are looking at a tiny company making waves in an ocean. Fanatics seems to be positioning themselves with huge amounts of investors and league support to make this a long term success. The approach might be simple, but the execution is complex, just as it was for the last inflection point back with the creation of Panini America. Bottom line, looking at this not being successful is not only short sighted, but unaware of the general context of how they are going about this whole plan. First, they have 4+ years to get ready, which is a lifetime in business. More importantly, they have league support in equity and influence that is almost a guarantee that they will be able to do things that Topps and Panini could have only dreamed of. They are also going to be exploring more channels that break the decades old methods that almost suffocated the industry after the 1990’s collectible boom faded. Although I am not advocating that people give this a chance, what I am saying is that the current trading card market is only part of their success plan. That means that parts of this whole could fall flat on its face and it wouldnt sink the whole ship.

Bottom line, this isnt a discussion about whether or not Fanatics’ card products are going to sell as well as a comparable product from Topps or Panini. Although that’s a long term measurement metric of ongoing success, its one with too limited a representation of how Fanatics will integrate themselves into this industry at a core level. I dont think anyone is expecting that the first ever Fanatics Flagship MLB product will sell like Topps Series One out of the gate. I think that with the support of the league and the new channels they will explore, the measure of success will be far different than just the secondary market price of specific box, single or case.

Major Question: How will the industry change?

I expect wholesale changes by 2026 that will be implemented in pieces between now and then. The $350M in Series A funding looks to be set aside for startup costs, and it looks like they have a number of other investors in line. Although the average joe collector sees this as an apocalypse on the horizon, many investors are seeing this as a gigantic opportunity in one of the hottest goods available now. My take is pretty simple – if there are people out there who are involved in some sort of trading card business venture or adjacent service, they have the next few years to solidify their investments to sustain their existence when this eventually is executed in full. Although the wholesale changes might not sink everyone, its going to sink a number of people. Some bigger than others.

Scale is really the main thing here, because the main impacted parties will likely be the distributors and group breakers who rely on scale to make their operations work. If Fanatics removes that element from the supply line, some will adapt and survive, countless others will not. I read somewhere that the number of group breakers operating online and on Facebook has increased ten fold over the last two years. Not all of those people will have the access they once had, or the scale available they once had.

Rubin spent some of the interview outlining the priority around direct to consumer sales, which for decades in this industry was an afterthought. Manufacturers have started experimenting, but their ongoing dependence on distributors and shops to move product meant that they were limited in their ambition. Fanatics is clearly not taking that approach, and rightfully so. Retailers like Amazon and eBay will undoubtedly be looking for clarity on their potential role in the retail space, and it may be that Fanatics decides to move more of their sales to a digital format or an online storefront that provides complete access to more collectors and casual fans.

Similarly, when considering the adjacent businesses like Grading and Storage, those things may not change immediately, but its clear that everything is going to be different eventually.

Major Question: Should we support these new overlords?

Here is the thing. Its up to you, just like it always has been.

Right now a lot of people are complaining that prices are too high and the hobby has shifted to a point where they cant participate any longer. For those people, I would expect that this could be the breath of fresh air to get back involved. For others that operate on a premium plane or in an investment based experience, this will undoubtedly impact the way they participate. The good thing is, its not like all the old stuff just disappears. None of that stuff will automatically become worthless because there is a new game in town. The same fears were in place in 2010, and were generally proven to be incorrect.

I personally have no dog in this fight any longer, as I have sold every major sports trading card in my collection. I just find this whole situation fascinating to an exceptional degree. I feel as though I have become a student of the industry side of this hobby for the last 15 years, and it has given me a different perspective than collectors who are scared about the purchases they have made for their collection. Will your 50 year run of completing the annual Topps set be over? Absolutely – in 2026 it will be, unless Fanatics decides to purchase the IP. Will the enjoyment of your collection diminish because that yearly venture is no longer available? I dont think so, but its on you.

Fanatics is a business coming in with a fresh slate and one that I want to see in practice. I dont have any investment to want it to be successful or unsuccessful, but as an observer, it is a lot of fun to watch it play out. Advocating for change is something I have done since 2008, and for the first time ever, we are getting it across the board.

Breaking Down the Fanatics Consolidation Path in the Industry

Ive done quite a bit of writing over the last few months pertaining to the enormous shift that is going to happen in this industry over the next few years. Fanatics is taking the world by storm, and with a recent CNBC and WSJ article outlining some of what sources are telling them is going to happen, we are in for an adventure.

Here is a quick blurb from the CNBC article that highlights some of the consolidation that Fanatics is looking to undertake:

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In addition, the article in the WSJ outlined new series funding that Fanatics has secured to bankroll their new division, as well as add to the war chest of resources and support they were already in possession of, or planning to acquire. If I had to guess, the next five years will be the time used to build a foundation across the industry that will turn its current existence up side down.

If you are unfamiliar with the landscape, here is how I break it down.

  1. Production – Actually producing the cards. Building sets, art, content. Packing out the goods.
  2. Distribution – getting the product into the hands of other parties, either wholesalers, shops or collectors
  3. Retail – the actual sale of the cards at a point of service, either online, in person, or through a partner
  4. Marketplace – Resale of singles, wax, or products
  5. Grading – self explanatory
  6. Breaking – The community of group breakers
  7. Storage – I wouldnt normally add this, but COMC has shown how big of a business this can be

That means there are give or take 8 sections of the industry, all with established businesses to service that portion that will need to be consolidated. This doesnt mean that Fanatics is going to wipe these businesses off the face of the earth, but if there is exclusivity in building infrastructure around their main competitive advantages, its going to be hard to operate as a third party adjacent business.

Production

Believe it or not, this is likely the main challenge that Fanatics is going to face, especially considering the size and scale of what they are taking over. Panini, Topps and UD put out HUNDREDS of products each year, and it should be expected that Fanatics isnt going to walk back their participation, especially if the licenses come with a minimum guarantee the way that previous ones did.

That means that they will need to source, complete and produce a lot of sets from scratch, or purchase intellectual property to help facilitate that. To produce a set you need ideas, art, memorabilia, signatures, and the actual card making materials. Im thinking that Fanatics maybe has some ideas, but im not sure how much scale they have in the other areas.

Because production is as much about the people as anything, I would expect a hiring spree over the next year or so to bolster their division. Digital artists to create the designs based on the ideas from the product/brand managers. If they were ambitious, they could try to build unique products for all three sports, but I doubt that is going to happen at first.

When Upper Deck lost pretty much everything back in the 2009 / 2010 timeframe, Panini and Topps went and scooped up a lot of their best talent. Most of whom are still with the companies today. To think that wont happen again with Fanatics is naïve, but they might want to go a different direction.

Lets say they decide its best to just pick up a company as a whole, as its easier to start with a whole car instead of trying to buy all the parts individually and build your own hot rod. Upper Deck and Topps seem to be the most likely targets as they have more attractive IP for the cost it would take to acquire it. Sure they can go after Panini America, but their umbrella organization seems to be more intent in keeping that division open. Topps and UD seem to be more built around their brands, with Bowman, Exquisite and SP Authentic being some of the most valuable product IP in the industry. Upper Deck also has exclusives with LeBron James and Michael Jordan, both of whom havent had autographed cards in an NBA uniform during the past 10 years. Upper Deck is a much smaller operation, and likely ten times cheaper to acquire, thus making me lean that direction. The exclusive player licenses alone could be a game changer if they are transferrable with the sale of the company.

Outside of actually making the sets, they need to get the cards built, which I have no idea about, so Ill have to skip over that. Those resources are finite, and if I am Panini, Im working on exclusives with as many of those people as possible to lock out the team coming in.

Then it moves onto signatures and memorabilia. Given that Fanatics will have unprecedented access to the leagues, the memorabilia for current athletes will likely be a non issue. Especially now that Panini has made it wholly acceptable to use non-game worn materials in the cards. Panini literally tore down the one barrier to entry out of necessity and now Fanatics can walk right through that door.

Autograph deals are something Fanatics already has in place, and the PA licenses will make it very easy to get more. This might be the one area they can do better than any other company out there, especially if they have access to new players that were tied up in exclusives before.

Distribution

Lets start with the way things are set up now. You have a manufacturer who is building the products, distributors like GTS, Peach State and Southern Hobby that buy the products from the manufacturers and resell them at a higher cost to shops, and then retailers who sell those boxes to consumers. Over the last 10 years, the direct to consumer lane has opened up, as has group breaking, but ill get there in a second.

Right now, Fanatics is a global retailer with huge presence across the three leagues. They have stores, they have distribution and they have a gigantic online storefront that does huge business across hundreds of licenses. If they are going to use that infrastructure, to move trading card product, look out.

There are also big box retail outlets involved like Target and Wal Mart, which have been ravaged by idiots looking to make money on the hobby explosion over the course of the pandemic. Fanatics can service that as well.

Here is the challenge that has defined the way cards are made for decades – the manufacturers dont want to be in the business of holding product. They want to make it and ship it, they do not want to pay for warehouse space to hold it long term. They also didnt want to be in league with hundreds of tiny shops around the nation who didnt know how to run a business. Things like credit, pre-orders and shit like that were a bridge too far, especially entering into an age where everything is done online. We have all seen what that shift has meant for shops refusing to enter the 21st century.

Naturally, entities were created to exploit that. Take that off the plates of the manufacturers who were already struggling to make ends meet. Distributors have ran things around the hobby for a long time – that is until Group Breakers came on the scene. But again, we will get to that.

Because Distributors controlled where the product was going in a large portion of the run of any set, they had a ton of power to dictate how the future product runs were delivered. Sometimes it was for a good reason dictated directly to them by demand from the collecting base they serviced, other times it was solely for their own good. Sure, Panini and Topps sold directly to shops in some cases, but not enough to remove the distributors from the equation.

Unlike Topps, Panini and UD, Fanatics has a web already constructed in some of these areas, and if they were smart, they wouldnt let places like Blowout or their compatriots take any of that competitive advantage away. For a hobby like this, influence is everything, and I would be exceptionally hesitant about adding more seats at the table when you dont have to.

The last 2 years aside – this hobby has been on a downturn in most of the main areas populated by everyday consumers. Over the last two years, some of that power has gone back into the hands of the manufacturers because demand has been insatiable. Unfortunately, that also meant that many shops relied on old methods that were unable to scale and unable to support a growing tidal wave of interest from the population.

The advent of group breaking also helped to grow things in an exponential way, but even then, their presence still relied heavily on distributors to be a middle man in the supply line. Older product is something that currently has no place at the manufacturers, and that’s where most of the purchase power shifts directly into the hands of everyone’s least favorite power brokers.

If I am Fanatics, I would do everything in my power to break this cycle with consolidation in the most pressing possible way. Because Fanatics is as much a global distributor as they are a retailer, the need to push product around the old way doesnt need to exist. Additionally, because they have retail stores and relationships to market directly through the leagues themselves, Im not sure if they need the card shop market structure anymore.

Card shops will argue that they are the ambassadors, but with things the way they are, Fanatics may not want it that way. It all depends on the end goal that the new world order is designed to accomplish. If its mass market appeal, catering to shops around the country who dont have standardized presentations shouldnt be the plan. That’s where a fanatics retail experience will be the most important aspect of this new model.

Retail

Everyone knows exactly what to expect when they walk into an Apple Store. Everyone knows exactly what they are buying when they buy a McDonald’s Cheeseburger. That consistency does not exist in the hobby today across any aspect of the supply chain. Everyone who is reading this blog has been in a card shop. Everyone who is reading this blog has likely had a negative experience too.

With Trading Cards as investment pieces the new normal, its time for the shops to grow up as much as the products. There is a reason that the market exists the way that it does in the pandemic era, and most of it has to do with how unprepared the hobby was for the giant droves of attention that have come to our front door.

This also begs the question of whether or not Fanatics sees value in continuing down the current retail path or if they are looking to expand their reach. Will trading cards eventually be the investment pieces that they are right now, or will that also be coupled with access that isnt available right now. Will other spending levels be considered as viable segments because the audience is likely going to be larger? I believe they are heavily weighing a future where the only people that can join the hobby are those with tons of disposable income.

Remember, access to affordable products is what most collectors are harping on right now, because things have shifted so dramatically towards super premium methods of spending. I have always said that driving towards the higher end of things was the best option, only because the audience was so small. If the audience is bigger, the revenue generated per head can be a lot smaller.

That’s where these retail experiences can cater to both sides of the same coin. Either offer retail store that offers product along side all the licensed gear that already populates their stores, or create a premium shopping experience like buying a Rolex or a Tesla. There are no need for dingy shops in strip malls to be your ambassadors if you can build these cards into your existing retail empire.

Marketplace

The horror stories of the secondary market are so frightening that the fear of a negative buying experience has become as important as a flawless deal. So many times, eBay has been the primary marketplace, alongside Facebook, where billions of dollars change hands collector to collector, and little accountability on either side of the deal leads to gigantic universal issues.

In the articles we have already been clued into the fact that Fanatics wants to be a provider in this space as much as they are a supplier. Consolidating the marketplace has worked incredibly well in some hobbies, but it would change the game in this hobby. Being able to buy single cards or secondary market wax in a trustworthy environment would be so welcome that it could expand reach of this hobby all by itself.

Because the negative experiences are so widespread, its curious to think how a new collector to collector marketplace could exist under a new direction. I have always said escrow like transactions are the best approach, where collectors each send to a hub, who can validate each side of a deal before it is then sent to the other party. This can also work in a COMC like marketplace where the assets are all stored like a bank to be bought and sold through a third party.

Its easy to see here where Fanatics can step in, deliver the collector to collector experience we have all been clamoring for as well as a manufacturer direct to consumer approach that has become popular with Panini and Topps over the last 10 years.

Panini has offered single card purchases directly to the consumer for a few years now, but the scale was always limited by their relationships elsewhere that could be damaged by the change in market direction. Fanatics shouldnt have any of those dependencies, thus opening up a new stream of revenue that can deliver cards in a new way.

Grading

If you want to know my feelings on the grift that is the grading business, go search at the top of the page. I do not support grading as a service or as a business. There are too many conflicts of interest. To think that Fanatics could enter into this part of the hobby isnt shocking, but it could be interesting to see how it goes down.

This is one area where they have no footing, and really dont have a way to enter the market the same way they do in some of the other areas Im discussing in the article. Of all the numbers on my list, this is the one that I think they have the largest disadvantage.

Group Breaking

I once heard that before the boom, group breaking accounted for about 60% of all product sales across the hobby. I would argue that during the first upturn, it was probably more than that. Now, because individuals are more likely to want to avoid groups in their wax ripping investments due to the secondary market value of the tent pole hits in a product, I would think that number has dropped dramatically in percentage, but increased in volume.

The funniest thing is, all the manufacturers could have brought group breaks in house and prevented their products from being delivered to consumers in this fashion. There still isnt a legal precedent that says its kosher to offer a product this way. Fanatics could be the first manufacturer to limit distribution to the usual suspects, and prevent the conflict of interest that exists with manufacturers and breakers working together.

Without direct sales to group breakers, and creating their own versions of a marketplace for break slots, Fanatics could revolutionize this sometimes shady aspect of the hobby over time. I think the scale of it might be too large to undertake along side the other items on their startup list, but its cool to think about how this could go down. If access is the true goal, that’s where this could all be done, above board, and with oversight to deliver a positive customer experience.

Storage

The last aspect of the chain I want to discuss is one that was made popular by services like COMC. Places where collectors can house their wares and not have to worry about the sales aspect in a way like they do collector to collector. Because of the amount of space this requires, and what we have read in the articles, I think this area of the hobby is one Fanatics will target as well. Being able to store, sell and ship cards directly will undoubtedly be part of their plan, because they do it already.

Fanatics has sold single cards for almost a decade, and I would expect them to explore card storage areas very quickly because of the ease to break into the market when you control all the aspects of the supply chain.

Even though most of this article is speculative at this point, it should go without saying that change is coming. Massive change. If you own a hobby adjacent business or rely on this hobby for enjoyment, the next few years is going to be a wild ride. Fanatics set themselves up with one thing that is rarely plentiful in this hobby – time. They have four years to get this in motion, and I would argue that might be as much of a bad thing as it is a good thing. There are so many elements here that need to be hashed out, and its going to be interesting to see where their priorities lie. Best of luck to everyone, we are going to need it.

The Plight of the Newbie and the Gatekeeper

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This has been a whirlwind for trading cards and collectibles that has extended into the far reaches of collectible enterprise, an experience that most never expected to become a reality. Five years ago, many of us were looking into the future and unclear about how we would participate in a hobby that was already getting expensive and geared towards collectors with huge budgets. Now, we can look back and laugh, knowing that the reality everyone thought was decades off came in less than 2 years.

One of the main challenges with collecting these days are people that focus more on the monetary aspect of things over the collection building aspects. These people are often referred to as flippers, flipbois, or worse, saying that their presence is more detrimental than helpful. Ive seen some numbers saying that hundreds of thousands of new faces are now populating the ranks of the hobby, with immediate responses from people that they arent “true collectors” and shouldnt be counted.

That’s where things break down, because the contingent of people in this hobby who have been around for years, decades, half centuries are looking at this new boom with two very different perspectives. The first perspective is about an outlook more akin to “the more the merrier” and the added value that comes with more attention. The second perspective is that this darkened corner of the collectibles universe is one that was better without the attention and new population. Some may have a little of column A and a little of column B in their minds, but for the most part, its a hard left or a hard right.

Welcoming the Crowd

Personally, my perspective is much more aligned with the idea that the more demand there is inside a collectible based economy, the better. I dont see how a hobby like this can exist without demand, because the way we interact with the market all centers around demand and value. If demand is high, the supply becomes more valuable, and the work to acquire a collectible for your collection becomes repaid with additional value. Although it becomes harder to make new acquisitions at the price before, the available equity and liquidity in a collection becomes a more adequate tool for the funds needed to offset the rise in costs given its new higher valuation.

Outside of the value based asset discussions, a mentality like this means more open arms for newer people, and a much more welcoming atmosphere to learn and be educated in the ways of the universe. Because the barriers to entry are lower, more demand enters the marketplace as a result.

One could argue that a low barrier to entry also brings with it more bad apples and riff raff, but I would argue those criminals and fraudsters would exist regardless of which path into the collecting forest one chooses.

The main characteristic that comes along with this attitude is patience, something most collectors dont have and wont learn to display. Patience to wait for better deals, patience to wait for pricing to adjust to a settled market, patience to be at the back of the line for collection additions instead of out front by a million miles.

For me, patience has always been the bane of my existence. I always wanted to be the first in line, but unlike most collectors, I was absolutely prepared for the extra monetary commitments that came along with it. Most are not willing or not able to be that person in a hobby like the one we have today, but many with means can afford it and then some.

I see this welcoming attitude as the key to sustained growth and sustained prosperity, but for whatever reason, most of the old guard wants things to go back to the way they were. They want to go back when Wax was easy to find and easy to buy, where access wasnt limited by funds in your paypal account. Ive seen first hand that new gatekeepers have arisen, opting to use the phrase “true collector” as a weapon rather than an identifier.

The New Gatekeepers

Every single time a major collector wants to set themselves apart, they look for identifiers to showcase both effort and accomplishment. The use of who is a “real” collector versus one of the flip based collectors mentioned above can be presented as a vicious juxtaposition that changes many debates about the state of things into an argument.

The us versus them type of categorizing collectors has been a tool for many years as prices were already started to rise in a steady fashion. It has now become a crutch for those who dont like the way things are trending, towards a collecting base of flip-minded dealers over the people who put cards in a page for their sets. Even that analogy is a gatekeeping style sentiment, that the true collectors want the sets and value completion versus ripping wax, gambling with packs and acquiring single cards for one’s PC.

As someone who has yet to ever complete a single set in a manner described above, I have faced this identification more frequently than I can recount. My collections, whether football, baseball or otherwise, have always been about quality over quantity, shedding the hoarder approach of a closet filled with cardboard boxes filled with completed sets by year. I have often said on this blog that the approach of taking around a piece of notebook paper with the numbers missing from a base set is one that is fading quickly, and frequently I have been criticized for that mindset.

The idea there is such a thing as a real collector versus a poser is hilarious, because no matter how prevalent the desired approach is among the existing population, everyone who owns a card with the intent of keeping it is a collector. No further identification is needed in that respect.

To speculate which side of the argument is better is natural, as each side has their own viewpoints on whether the extra attention is good or bad in the long run. To play gatekeeper in this manner to shun the new entrants who want to be a contributing part of the community, on the other hand, is fucking stupid. If someone wants to join ranks for a community based environment, they should be welcomed until they show they A) cannot contribute to a positive experience and value or B) showcase they are more interested in creating harm to the existing members.

Bottom line, this growth in the hobby wont likely continue on this trajectory forever, and most of us were already bored with the state of things before the boom. Maybe its time for all of us to put aside our gatekeeping mentality and revel together in the craziness that has happened over the last 24 months.

That doesnt mean we shouldnt try to temper expectations thanks to our experiences, or even try to figure out how to engage with the new population. The thought that we can look down our noses at the new people is a practice that wont help at all, and that is guaranteed. Remember, we were all new at one point or another and we have all found intense joy in creating our place in the community. I know I have. But if someone treated me the way I have seen old guard collectors treat new people to this hobby, I can guarantee you that my mindset about cards would be 100% different than it is today.

Those with the tribal knowledge to impart should be proud of their ability to impart that on others. Using terminology to demean those without knowledge is a practice reserved for elitists and assholes. Our society already has enough of those types of people, and we absolutely need more willing to teach rather than taunt.

Im not trying to use this site or this post as a campfire moment where we all sing harmoniously together, just remember that at one time or another, you were that person on the other side, and this community welcomed your view and your tendencies with enough happiness that you stuck around. Try to do that for others.

If you feel that the flipper attitude is one that is poisoning our well, that’s not uncommon, and you are far from alone. But I challenge you to better understand the reason those people arent leaving, and why so many of them have decided to invest tons of money to build a collection at the high point of this, rather than wait for things to settle down. Its a fascinating journey, let me assure you.