Since I have started collecting, I have always just looked to get as many autographs and high end cards of the players I chased. With now 35 sets a year being released under one banner, that becomes a significant challenge, especially if your team drafts a big rookie. For people that dont have unlimited budget, Im frequently asked on Twitter what cards are the most important to have, or which boxes are the more important to rip. Here is my take on what’s left now that my favorite products are no longer available from Topps.

Flagship Contenders 

It sucks that Panini has chosen to dilute their legacy brand names with so many different products each year, but at least the original is still one of, if not the most, important sets of the year. Because it is one of DLP’s original rookie card products, it had a certain legacy status when Panini took over. Tom Brady’s 2000 Contenders Rookie Ticket auto is probably on the mount rushmore of football cards, and that’s important to a lot of collectors who are looking to acquire new singles and rip a bunch of boxes. 

That doesnt mean the set is without issue, however.

Contenders has had some of the worst designs in the history of football cards. 2011 definitely fits that bill, and then some. It seems like the brand legacy that this set has is basically rooted in two sets, and somehow that grants a pass for all the shit ass looks that have been used since the first version of the product. 

Even considering that 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2014 are so god awful that they tarnish the overall name Contenders has, recently, things have been better. This year’s set is still yet to be determined, but it could end up being nice if the execution works in people’s favor. 

Because of the status here, QB autographs in the set are some of the most widely collected and highly valuable examples of the entire season. Although Im not a huge fan, owning a high grade cracked ice of any of the main QBs drafted since 2012 secures you a collection centerpiece. 

Flagship National Treasures

Like Contenders, there is inexplicably two versions of NT. The NCAA version holds water like a sieve, so dont bother unless you are looking to set your cash on fire. I experimented with some group breaks this year, and I cant move the cards for shit. NCAA is a license I hope Panini renegotiates in cost, because I fail to see any real long term value in any of the singles. Because of the huge cost of the license, we are doomed to sit through and endure products like NCAA NT, and it is a huge fucking money pit. 

On the other hand, the flagship NT set is the most valuable base rookie auto patch of the year. Because there are maybe 200 of each card, there isnt as much attention and movement in the market, but the value exceeds even Flawless. 

Much like Contenders, there are so many dark years of NT, that its hard to take the legacy of the brand seriously, but here we are. Panini got very lucky in 2010 when UD lost the license and Exquisite was forced to sit on the shelf. Topps put out a GORGEOUS set with 100% hard signed signatures in Five Star Football (my favorite year and set of all time), but because of a confusing parallel structure and its newness, people decided NT was the Exquisite replacement. It wasnt until 2014 that the overall design really hit its stride, but to this day, the set is full of stickers. That’s a big fucking stain on a set that is supposed to be the face of the sport, and I hate it. 

In spite of my hatred for the stickers, NT remains a favorite for big time investors, even though its literally only the main RPA subset that retains any value. You can likely get booklets, and insert autos for pennies on the dollar in comparison, and it all has to do with Collectors innate stupidity around a “true RC.” That whole concept is complete bullshit, but it contributes to these cards being the best of the best. 

Prizm

When Prizm first came out, it was no better than Diet Chrome. Topps Chrome was the most important set of the year prior to the departure of a competitive marketplace, and Prizm was created to ride those coat tails like a fucking barnacle on the side of a boat. If you want to see some fucking trash, go look at 2012-2014 Prizm sets. Panini didnt even do a good job in ripping off a small portion of Topps’ best.

In 2015, that changed considerably, with a migration to more of what the set is today. Even though Panini unceremoniously ripped off the Superfractor for some dumb reason, and then made the cards numbered /5, it still hasnt escalated the set to the top of the investment conversation. 

Even with some great looking designs over the last few years, as well as some nice improvements, Prizm still has sticker autos. In another mind numbingly stupid decision, Panini chose Optic as a way to bring hard signed autographs to the fold, even though the rated rookie cards look like fucking garbage. Prizm is one of the most heavily ripped sets of the year, and secondary market value on the wax continues to skyrocket season after season. With on card autographs in the mix, the whole dynamic could change. 

Now that the set has built up some legacy that doesnt involve 2014’s ghoulishly disgusting look, the set really has some legs without a Topps Chrome to carry the marketplace like it did in 2015. Prizm draft picks also took a break this year, so we get one NFL set for 2018 with the Prizm brand, and that is always a good thing.

Everything Else

Obviously, I left Flawless off this list because the rookie cards arent really the focus of the value there. Most of the rookie autographs arent even worth what the base Contenders tickets are worth, so there is a big gap in what should be done with the product and what IS done with the product. Flawless is not only too expensive for a sport like football, but like Treasures has an NCAA counterpart, whose existence makes my head hurt when I try to think about it.

Outside of the products mentioned above, Panini makes 35+ other products. Yep, wrap your fucking brain around that one. They will blame the license for the reason all the products are required to exist, but that is where the blame would fall squarely on the shoulders of the negotiation team. Basically, you have a few products that mean anything, and the rest might as well be one big clusterfuck of nothingness. The cards never hold value, the hits are full of sticker autographs, and when something awesome like Impeccable is released, with hard signed amazingly elegant cards, people write it off. 

Its sad that there are only really 3 major sets per year, and though arguments can be made for others, there just really isnt much defined in the Panini NFL legacy as a whole. Remove Contenders, Treasures and Prizm from the mix, Im not really sure what collectors have truly embraced. 

Lets run through some of the great stuff that has happened to football cards this year. Patrick Mahomes has found a new super power, and is white hot among collectors. Jared Goff is on his way to MVP contention with a Rams team that looks to be on its way to the Super Bowl. Tom Brady is still selling like he was last year. Mitchell Trubisky just put up 6 TDs in a game, something that hasnt happened for the Bears in a long time. Drew Brees is about to set some major records. 

Guess what? This is good news for the hobby. Although I have frequently commented on how much impact the recent QB renaissance has had in Football cards, and how much I wish it would carry over to other players, Im not going to sit here and say that this isnt a great thing for everyone who is involved with the hobby.

We need more attention to come to a sport where collectors are apathetic about spending money in general. We need the dog sets like Illusions and over marketed NCAA products to have some clout. Without these QBs, the people chasing and ripping wax will leave, and that means fewer eyes on the other players that deserve similar attention.

Michael Thomas is having a career year, as is Adam Thielen, which only goes to show that Khalil Mack is maybe one of the most undervalued players in the hobby, seeing that he hasnt even reached those levels. Hopefully with more eyes comes more buyers and with more buyers comes a better outlook for people like me, people who love football cards regardless of whether or not a QB is in our box.

This has to be a great situation for all the shops too, as all that old wax collecting dust on their shelves is finally going to be shaken loose. I think I even saw someone eyeing a box of 2017 Pantheon at a shop recently. That’s what we have come to. Yes – the garbage that populates so much of Panini’s release calendar might actually get some action outside of release week on Breakers  TV.

Before we start living in the riches of our .com boom for QB cards, lets realize where this might go.

Last year we saw a crazy situation with Tom Brady looking to lock up another title, and how much ridiculousness ensued with his cards. The difference between guys like Brady and the new hotness in Mahomes and Goff is that even if Brady lost, he still was the greatest of all time. If Mahomes doesnt get to the top of the mountain this year, there are going to be quite a few people who are going to be upset with their 8k purchase of his Contenders Cracked Ice. That’s not saying he wont be there again in the future, its just a showcase of comparative value that should be brought into EVERY SINGLE conversation like this. 

Overall, I hope this path continues. I hope that we get to see a Super Bowl where Goff and Mahomes square off for the ages. Chances are slim that will happen, but I hope all the people have sold off all their profits, because things can change in an instant – right Jimmy Garoppolo? 

So, with that, lets all pray for the ACLs and hope that our cards we hold stay on this trajectory. I have been around this hobby long enough to see how much of a loser you feel like when you should have sold instead of held. I also know how great it feels when you hit it big. As a gambler myself, I thrive on that rush you get from a huge win. I also know to still feel satisfied when you sell a bit early rather than a bit late.

I put a lot of money into Mahomes during the offseason, as it was clear that he had the potential tools do some awesome things this year. In my previous prospecting expeditions (if you could call them that), I had been relatively unsuccessful, especially with Derek Carr and a cavalcade of Vikings QBs that havent worked out. Thankfully, this one has worked out and then some. 

Right now, Mahomes prices are literally fucking bananas, and that shouldnt come as a surprise when you think about how much they were already selling for last year. Check them out:

2017 Contenders Patrick Mahomes RC Ticket Auto PSA 10

2017 National Treasures Patrick Mahomes Auto Patch /99 PSA 10

Funny enough, I seem to have latched onto what drives the hobby just like thousands of other collectors and I really dont feel like this is as good of a thing as people might think. Its good because 2017 products will go nuts, similar to what happened in 2016 with Dak, Wentz and Zeke, now Goff and others too. Its a challenge because its clear that only certain things in football have lasting values, and that’s not good.

That means for the multitude of non-QB autos that are the box hits in just about 99% of the product out there, there wont be much sustained potential in increasing value. Its unfortunate, because guys like Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt, who should benefit from Mahomes tearing it up, wont benefit much, if anything long term.

Collectors only chase QBs, and though there have already been some incredible things happening, guys like Goff, Cousins and even Fitzpatrick to a surprising degree are the only ones that are blasting off. 

Its worth noting that I am NOT complaining about these guys having huge values attached to them – that is awesome and great to see. Im complaining that its perpetuating this notion that WRs, RBs, and everyone else are worthless by comparison in a long term situation.

I have harped on this situation for a long time, mainly because its become such a secondary market shit show outside of the Panini legacy sets that drive QB prices through the roof. Trying to find a Mahomes Contenders right now or a Mahomes Treasures RPA right now would likely be among the hardest things to do at any reasonable price.

As much as the mania is taking hold, I just wish that the other players would catch as much fire as they deserve to. As mentioned before, its just one of those things where career longevity and HOF potential is so slim, that its hard to justify. Then again, when this hobby is just meant to be fun and not an investment, maybe that’s where the answer lies.

I have said a number of times that if you arent a QB and you arent a rookie, chances are you are not going to have much value in football any longer. Although sales seem to be up relative to previous years, secondary market values continue to be a challenge for most of the card companies. One could argue that the increase in sales has all but entirely been accounted for by the advent of group breakers, local shops seem to be having a slightly better time overall with selling the most popular American sport.

This almost begs a certain question of shouldered burden of ripping wax. If GB spots are a much less costly way to engage with opening boxes of product, does that devalue the cards on the secondary market that seem to be from forgettable players or at least forgettable sets? I would say that it seems like that. Sure, there are always exception to the rules, but we consistently see that football is about as volatile a market as exists. Players are getting cut for lack of performance much earlier on in their already short career, which already has a huge impact on prospecting value in the NFL. 

With that, QBs are really the only position on the value spectrum that have major potential, and now that we see teams are moving on from draft picks two years in, that doesnt say much about hitting the lottery with your investment. For every late round Dak Prescott or a top pick like Wentz/Goff, there are 5-10 others on a yearly basis that go nowhere. Look at 2012, 2013, 2014 and even 2015 to a degree. Not many success stories. Funny how that works in the NFL, as it is literally 100% different in NBA and MLB.

If a running back comes into the league at 20, he has a maximum of 10 years to accumulate a career’s worth of stats to be valuable enough to make sense to a secondary market investor. In baseball, players dont even hit their peak until 10 years in sometimes, and basketball is even more likely that a player could start being impactful day one and play for decades. The NFL is about as far off of that as anything, and its depressing that the injury potential is driving careers to extinction so early these days.

So, now that we know that tiny sample size out of every year’s 40 player rookie premiere class are actually successful, what do we do with the hundreds of thousands of other autographs and rookie cards that are released every year. For the most part, people will rip them in group breaks until the cows come home, but very few are actually buying the way they should after the initial release buzz has worn off. 

We see the secondary market can soften by up to 75% in some cases less than 8 weeks after a card hits shelves. Its literally insane how little half life these examples can have. Panini’s bullish investment in an exclusive NCAA license has forced these new co-branded sets down our throat, but the secondary market has long shown how little support there is for the cards later on in the season. Some of the products do look great, which is good for a number of reasons, but no one seems to care about the top picks in their college uniforms once pro stuff becomes available.

Believe it or not, I would say there are a batch of products from each company in each sport that cements whatever that manufacturer’s legacy might be. In football, unless a card comes from one of these brands, it will be subject to a more intense volatility that doesnt exist for any other product. 

If I had to identify the football “legacy” brands that are still in current production, its pretty simple. National Treasures, Contenders, and MAYBE Prizm if you really held my feet to the fire. One could argue Flawless or Immaculate has made their way into this, but only for very specific cards. Rookie cards in Flawless arent holding up over the years like the others do, and that has to be the scariest example there is. Yup, you buy a 1500 dollar box, but the main hits in 90% of the boxes will soften to the point of melted ice cream by the time the next card season starts. That is just fucking stupid. In fact, its so fucking stupid that I hate myself for continuing to be addicted to football cards. 

What makes this more troubling beyond just the secondary market value, is the people who make up the secondary market dont SEEM to have grown in size, despite the fact that group breakers have added more wax ripping consumers to the pool. I would guess this speaks to being able to buy spots as a currency of participation in the hobby instead of buying both spots and singles. I see a lot of people wanting to drop 50 bucks on a good team for a break, but not many who want to spend that 50 bucks on the cards generated by that spot. Instead, they would much rather just go for another spot.

Its created a bit of a gambling atmosphere within an environment that already hinges on hopeless addicts like myself to function. The challenge has always been bringing more consumers to the secondary market, which in turn floats the primary market that most of the shops depend on. Outside of a very small handful of sets in the NFL, that doesnt exist. 

I would heavily argue that Panini has done very little to show that they are committed to doing what is right to make good looking cards. They always come back at me and say that opinion can change collector to collector, which is true. However, I dont see the current team at Panini as responsible for adding to the batch of legacy sets that exists. Contenders has been around for multiple decades, and same could be said about NT. Other than Prizm, Immaculate and Flawless, there arent many new creations that people fawn over. Secondary market performance shows that there is still a huge gaping hole of value between what Contenders and Treasures generates versus these products, despite a similar box cost. I would love for Impeccable to be in this discussion, but we see that is far from the case. 

To be completely honest, I wonder if this might have changed had they chosen to stick with the Donruss brand for all their sets instead of a brand like Panini which was unfamiliar to 99.9% of US based collectors. 

I want Panini to be successful, because as said before, Im a hopeless wax ripping addict. I want to see collectors buy on the secondary market the way they do in the MLB and especially in the NBA. A lack of international appeal, and a lack of career longevity will always be a huge part of why the NFL wont measure up. 

Can we at least just aim to add more products that have some compelling reason for existence other than filling one of the 35 other gaps on the calendar that are required by the license? I just want Panini to realize that they have been unsuccessful in that quest. As much progress as I think they have made in the last 2 years, creating a lasting legacy brand outside of Contenders and Treasures has been a giant gap, one that the other sports seems to have been able to accomplish.

If you have been a fan of this site for a while, you know that I have been preaching for a long time about more opportunities for collectors to buy directly from the manufacturers. I have often said that offering an online experience that is as easy and as positive as a retail one is something that cards have SORELY been missing.

For the last year or so, Panini has ventured into territory we really havent seen prior to this point. Not only offering a direct buy option on just about all of the products, but also offering a special program that provides incentives for people to utilize the service. I think this is a huge step for a lot of different reasons I have covered in previous posts. The question is, has this program really lived up to the hype it had upon creation, and how have those incentives held up?

Most of the FOTL products have specific special cards as part of the promotion, some of which have looked pretty cool:

2017 National Treasures Patrick Mahomes Stars and Stripes Auto Logo /13

2018 Origins Saquon Barkley Purple Auto RC /32

Overall, I think the program has been successful because of the direct sales idea in its own right. Regardless of the incentives and how they are perceived by the collecting public, we need more exploration of this space. The issue has been a few major things, both stemming from the ability to access low numbered cards on a guaranteed box hit.

Because such low numbered content is being offered in every FOTL box, they sell out very fast. Similarly, with the price not being more expensive to offer these cards, its a no brainer for many to at least try to chase down a box or two if they were already in the market. Therefore, we see website slowness, quick sell out times, and many collectors being left without access to the offer.

Funny enough, we have seen mixed reactions to the cards themselves, as for some reason, people dont think the guarantee works towards higher value, except in very specific circumstances. This hobby is generally filled with anal retentive rule mongers, who live their collecting lives chasing down “true RCs” and other garbage ideas like that. It seems like the arbitrary Beckett rules of 1980 still haunt us in 2018, and that is not a good thing for creating value in a set or subset that doesnt play along. Trust me, we should find ways to escalate value of every card, not try to exclude a huge portion from the limelight because it doesnt follow some ancient guideline that has no place anymore.

This also applies to the low numbered stuff, because collectors seem to value the cards more that arent guaranteed in packs. If you are guaranteed a hit /10 in a pack, it normally cant hold a candle to a similar /10 card pulled from product that doesnt guarantee a hit. Considering that each athlete in every sport signs no less than 10-15k cards in a year, I dont get why there is such a discrepancy.

I will say, the program hasnt been without hiccups, especially when boxes havent delivered the content that is promised. Prizm Football had issues with collation and lower numbered parallels being available in the FOTL boxes. 2018 Elite FB had a number of boxes that were missing the guaranteed exclusive content. Other runs were just not as good to open outside of the guaranteed hit. That being said, because of the limited runs, it almost doesnt matter, as box prices are frequently jumping in cost after it sells out online.

Bottom line, I want every card company to offer a program that gets to the heart of the sales process the way this one does – regardless of the success of the actual products themselves. Its time to offer a more convenient way for collectors to participate in the hobby, especially now that every other portion of buying cards has been online for decades. I dont get why online wax sales direct from the manufacturer has taken so long to catch on. I honestly dont.