If you havent figured out what player worn material is, I would challenge you to do some research and quickly. With the growing expense of gathering game used material from both stars and rookies, almost every company has switched to using some sort of player worn material instead of actual game used material as a substitute. In the past I have called PWM the sticker autograph equivalent of the relic card.

Basically, for the un-indoctrinated folks, PWM is a jersey that is worn at a photo shoot or signing, usually done in bulk, with the sole purpose of getting more yield to create relic cards for the given player. For almost 18 years, the card companies have used this practice for rookies, and for the first time this year, we are seeing an absolute INFLUX of PWM for everyone – not just rookies.

There is a reason for this, and its one that many will not be happy with.

On average, lets say that a product’s budget is split up into the cost of production, licensing, relics and autographs. Its more complicated than these four things, but lets keep this simple.

Over the last 10 years, every product released on the calendar has some sort of “hit” element – either an autograph or relic in every box. You can imagine, that would necessitate a lot of content to be generated in the last two buckets. Most autograph checklists have 50-100 players on it, and 90% of the products out there have some combo of autographs and relics.

Autographs continue to drive product value above and beyond any of the other categories. and also account for an increase in cost that is seen almost across the board. Although cost of production is up and the cost of licensing is up, those are standard price of doing business increases, some of which is self inflicted. As for autographs and relics, the price of doing business is dictated by the market, and that is not a friendly environment to exist in. Players are no longer dumb to the value of their participation and are demanding more money to sign.

For relics, the game used memorabilia market has exploded, especially for top NFL stars, as its clear that there arent a lot of games, and there is not a lot of opportunity to pick up stuff for your collection. To make matters worse, the value of relic content in a product is at rock bottom. Some could say that the community is wise to the fact that most material can have questionable authenticity, or the fact that PWM has diluted value across the board. Either way, pulling a game used relic in a pack that is single color or even multi color, is just not valuable any longer.

This would speak to the need to establish an alternative, especially one that can be done in bulk and with little overhead to the general product.

As for the rookies, its a completely different story. For them, the necessity of adding rookie relics to packs is ENTIRELY dependent on PWM. It has been for multiple decades, and stems from the fact that many rookies dont see the field until later in the year, and when they do, they arent always ready to just dump their game used jersey on the open market.

Even worse are the rookies that are important that dont see the field period. Look at many of the QBs or injured players who will sit out an entire year before a game will take place. Even if they did see the field, by the time the jerseys were found, authenticated, bought, processed and ready to go, its almost too late for any real yield. At most, it would be one jersey, with lots of single color relics, and very few cards. It doesnt hurt that for 20 years, collectors have shown time and time again that they either dont care or dont know its PWM in the card instead of game used.

There are two main questions that collectors ask in response, and they arent wrong in the sentiment. The first is “Why dont they just make fewer products or fewer cards?” and the second is, “why dont they wait to make the rookie stuff if the content isnt available?”

To answer the first and some of the second, its all about licensing, and guaranteed money that is due to the leagues at very specific times. They cant make fewer products because the license has specific product number requirements. Basically, they cant just scale back production to 10 products because they have 35 on the contract with the league. They could have fought back and said that 35 products wasnt a good idea, but sales numbers dont tell that story. For the manufacturers and consumers, numbers point to saying the more the merrier from just about every source I talk to.

As for timing, delays are not a good idea in Football, especially when products are dominated by rookies in almost every corner of the hobby. As much as we want Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady autos, their cost and their availability are not what draw. Its the rookie class. The rookies are what drive people to products, and collectors want rookie patch autos as much as they can. Therefore, the companies will drive that down our fucking throats until we stop buying. If they delay a rookie class because of relics that have worked for 20 years, someone is going to lose their job and be replaced by someone who is going to do it the previous way.

Honestly, ive become numb to the whole thing. I really have decided to avoid the thought process all together, mainly because its unavoidable. Same with the argument around autographs and stickers. There is so much variety in past and present releases, I can easily pick and choose which cards I want to avoid. I dont buy PWM jersey cards unless they are autographed. I know the relics arent game used, and therefore arent appealing to me. If I pull them, I just sell them to someone who doesnt care if its GU or PWM.

I dont necessarily give the pass on the matter though when someone asks about it. I really dont like that this is the direction things are going. Im just smarter about the way card companies are thinking about it. They dont care about the venom or the vitriol online unless sales drop. They arent dropping, so the business decision is made. Pretty simple.

We always hear about people who are the way I used to be about this stuff, and that’s not a bad thing. They shout their hatred from the rooftops and try to garner support from others to join their cause. Im glad those people are still around, because I have lost the will to scream myself hoarse about something that isnt supported by any real progress.

Im also curious how this photo continues to be a reason why people are so up in arms.

Yes, that is Mark Ingram at the rookie premiere, wearing a stack of Jeremy Shockey jerseys like an overgrown christmas sweater. This calls attention to a few things that I find pretty funny. One, people dont understand that the card companies could care less what number and player are on the jersey, because they know all of them will be cut up regardless.

Two, that same bunch thinks the PWM is at least run around the stadium a few times during the event, not realizing that Ingram probably put more use into those jerseys than any other in the history of the event. Due to time constraints, for all the jerseys worn at any shoot or event, the neck-hole is put over a player’s head and then taken off and thrown into a stack. That’s all it takes to be labeled “player worn.” So, for Ingram to wear those jerseys for 10 minutes in a joking way, is probably more use than 99.999% of the rest of the jerseys ever worn during this event.

For reference, wearing jerseys are not the only thing the rookies have to take care of, as they have to sign thousands of cards, meet with all the 25+ licensees who want their shot at the big guys, and do a bunch of press. There just isnt time for the rookies to run around in the 100 jerseys they have to wear. Most of them are only present because its a requirement by the NFLPA to attend and participate. Not a good recipe for having a good enough attitude to do a fashion show with so many different pieces of material.

Bottom line, player worn material should be labeled barely worn material, because that’s what it is. The situation is pretty much a juicy sausage that no one wants to see the making of. There is a reason why there is a ton of coverage of the rookie premiere, but none of the back rooms where they do the jerseys.

Understandably, my blog is read by a very small group of people these days, and this post isnt going to be enough to inform the uneducated Joe Collector on Reddit that posts every time they find out their Saquon Barkley card isnt actually game used. A lot of these concepts are making their ways outwards as well, with more and more of the industry using PWM to make a product work.

This is the reality we face, and its going to be up to us to decide how we want to participate very quickly here. If you dont like the direction, much like I dont, its time to figure out a way to avoid it or tolerate it. That’s the only way to really make a point, as its clear that every other way hasnt yielded much in results.

A big piece of news was released today, despite being a part of the running commentary for a while now. Topps announced that they had extended their exclusive agreement with MLBP through 2025, which means that no other companies will be able to produced licensed MLB trading cards for at least another 7 years.

Because this is going to stir up a whole bunch of shit, I wanted to offer my long form reaction, rather than just typing it out on twitter one tweet at a time. Being that there are two sides to this, its worth discussing both what the impact is from a collector perspective and a more behind the scenes perspective. Obviously, most people only care that Topps is going to be the only game in town for another long period of time, and not necessarily what that could mean for the periphery.

I can sum the first part of this perspective up pretty simply. As a collector, this news sucks. It just does.

Not only will collector favorites like Upper Deck continue to sit on the sidelines, but its going to perpetuate a lot of the existing trends that have been widely criticized across the hobby. Collectors want variety, I want variety, and we should be upset that this is the way things are. All four leagues have been under exclusives since 2015, and that isnt going away. It seems to stifle progress, risk taking, and all sorts of other shit, which doesnt bode well for onboarding new collectors. The card companies seem to just go with what they feel is working, and rely more on the star power present in the latest rookie class than anything else.

There is very little progress, similarly, towards the next big thing, of which I felt was digital collecting up until about a year and a half ago. There is very little incentive publicly to move the ball forward, at least from what we see, and not a lot of transparency as to what is coming down the pike.

Overall, a lack of competition is something that I have always hated, and continue to hate. Its not good for anyone, as its clear that Topps in MLB, or Panini in the NBA / NFL produce exclusively what everyone wants. We want to see Topps Chrome Football, Upper Deck SPA and Exquisite Basketball, and Flawless Baseball. It would be a great thing to have an environment where more collectors could speak with their wallets more effectively.

What people dont really seem to understand is that the leagues want the exclusives as much as the companies want to be the recipients of said exclusives. Cards seem to be more of a necessary evil for the major sports, and they definitely enjoy not having to navigate a very complicated market that is occupied by 3-4 licensees. They want to focus on the other things that generate more money, and leave the complexity outside of the agreements. Similarly, it allows them more flexibility interally, and the ability to be prescriptive with the company that owns the exclusive. They want control over their intellectual property and proprietary business, and its easier to do that through one company than many. If cards generated more money, and the business dictated more competition would bring tons more to the table, they may consider it. I dont think that is the case outside of World Cup stickers, however.

So, blaming Topps for the new exclusive agreement isnt necessarily misplaced aggression, but they are also not the only piece to this puzzle. More importantly, outside of product development and product management – the place where most of the community vitriol is directed – the exclusive does give a lot of power for investing in things that enables better products to be made. The product teams need to execute there, but the exclusive as a protective investment is important there.

Basically, player relationships, retailer engagement, collector programs, marketing, and inventory generation and control all benefit from a long term exclusive agreement. Topps can and has dedicated more funds to these areas, if not only because they know the license is theirs to hold. Panini has actually done a VERY good job with this on the NFL side, even though my opinion of their product execution remains about the same.

Things that make a better product are many, and a lot of them depend on some of these investments behind the scenes to ensure the money they pour into the business actually produces a strong ROI. Obviously when that translates into the product teams, there are going to be mixed results, as always. Before the exclusive market took over the card industry, shit still went wrong – A LOT. That is just part of the way things are, and I doubt that would change, even if split licenses came back.

Shitty products or production errors are as common in sports cards now as they ever have been. I guess that’s more a knock on progress to a greater ideal, but I also dont believe that a lack of incentive prevented progress there. It may not have promoted said progress, but its not like it wouldnt happen either.

Overall, we know that the Industry is starting to bounce back now, and doing so on a pretty consistent clip. That progress hasnt gone unnoticed by the manufacturers, and its a big reason why we should expect them to stay quiet when the leagues continue to want to do business on an exclusive level. They dont want to stifle that progress in their own business, nor lose the favor with each of the leagues they work with.

Even more than that, if we know the leagues want exclusivity, we should consider what might happen if someone like Topps doesnt get this done. Topps has the longest running business in cards, and is the only company with any real place in the public consciousness with cards. Upper Deck is there too, but they arent as relevant these days. If Topps doesnt get this exclusive, the business would likely go to Panini, exclusively. There was some rumors of a split license back a year ago, but the discussion doesnt seem to have been anything more than that. If you dont like what Topps is doing with baseball, are you similarly comfortable with them being completely gone as well? Hell fucking no. Topps is baseball cards, and you are kidding yourself if you believe that isnt the case. I mean, 99.99% of the US population hears Panini and thinks of a grilled sandwich. That’s not good for anyone.

We shouldnt give up the fight to end this practice, and the only way for that to happen is to continue to engage directly on every level of the industry. This means talking directly to the manufacturers, the distributors, and surely your local shop owners and breakers. They have power as much as you do, and your feedback does get reviewed. You may not hear a direct response, but it doesnt fall as much on deaf ears as you might think. Business things like this exclusive arrangement are likely not going to be up for discussion, but the way you engage with and purchase products are always worth a review.

Net net, go through how you engage with the hobby and the industry and find what works for you. If this means you are done with cards, sorry to see you go. If this means you find a more balanced approach, that’s fine too. Overall, its time to come to terms with the fact that the exclusives are here for the foreseeable future, and we will have to deal with it. Its not a collecting utopia, but its also far from the worst thing that could happen.

Hey guys, ‘member when the Strasburg Supefractor sold for $25k and we all went nuts? Hey guys, ‘member when everyone was saying the Ohtani Superfractor would sell for $65k and we all were left wondering how that could happen? Well guys, its time we all start to look at the recent sale of the Mike Trout superfractor at a reported $400k tag, and realize none of that other stuff matters. This is the big dog, and in all likelihood, it may never happen again.

Trout is the best player in baseball over the last decade, and its not even close to a competition. His sabermetric stats are off the charts, and what’s even more insane is that they seem to be getting better not worse. Yes, friends, Mike Trout hasnt reached the summit yet, and when he does, im not sure what more will be said.

Honestly, I think this sale says less about Mike Trout and more about the ceiling that exists on modern cards in the hobby today. There are really only a handful of players that can sniff this range, and its pretty clear who they are. Michael Jordan, Lebron James, Tom Brady, and Mike Trout. That’s about it. I think there are certain arguments that can be made for other players, but that’s a very small list of titans to be reviewed.

Modern cards survive on contrived scarcity combined with BGS introducing hyper-mint grading services to the industry. Without those two things, there isnt a discussion about cards like this Mike Trout. For vintage, the cards that are worthy of a safe at Ft. Knox are much more about condition and age, as well as the fact that almost all the benchmarks are one of a few in a given market. The players are all dead, which means that there wont be off the field incidents that will tarnish their legacy, or even injuries that can end a career. All that will be said has already been said in some capacity, and there is comfort in collecting that way for many people.

Vintage will forever be the gold standard, and though Mike Trout’s card is like a pit bull in a sea of puppies, it will never live up to the best examples from the pre-war and post war eras. There was a recent sale of a 2.5 million dollar Mantle recently, including some speculation that one other may be in the 10 million dollar range. That’s Honus Wagner type company, and that’s saying something.

As said above, this sale should tell you that no matter how good some modern player is, or how insane his rookie card might be, its still not close to the best of the best. It will never be close. Not sure if that is more crazy than sad, but maybe a little of both.

When Topps Now first started, I dont think many of us expected it to usher in a new type of producing cards that would be anything close to impactful. Its crazy to think how much has changed since that time, with Topps almost rewriting the hobby perspective from scratch. Not only have Topps Now cards become a highly collectible brand, but they have ushered in more on demand printed “products” that have been impressively successful.

The most recent one is the Topps Living set, and the results speak for themselves:

2018 Topps Living Set – First 12 Cards

2018 Topps Living Set Ian Happ Base Card

2018 Topps Living Set Nick Markakis Base Card

2018 Topps Living Set Joe Panik Base Card

Here is how it works. Topps releases a set of players periodically, and print as many cards as are ordered. This means some cards have huge runs, like the Ohtani, while others do not. The recent release of Braves rookie Acuna hit a peak of 45k plus, which is more than I would have ever thought possible in a format like this. This has been going on since the start of the season, and should continue indefinitely. Being that baseball is still one of the only sports where set collecting is a huge attraction, you can see where the idea would have taken off from.

More impressive than the print count on some of the cards, is the money some are paying for cards that have lower runs. Right now, as more people join into the hunt due to rising popularity, the low run cards will be tougher and tougher to get your hands on. Demand will far exceed supply, and prices wont go down. Im curious why it has taken people so long to catch on, but we are now at a point where the value is no longer a secret.

I love this idea, and hope Topps decides its worth expanding in a similar way to how they have done Topps Now. Autographs and relic versions, with expansion to other sports would be great. Im actually shocked that it hasnt gone that direction already, considering how much extra money could be made. Collectors have already latched on dramatically to the Topps now autographed versions, and adding new lines to the living set without compromising the original idea could be a great possibility.

Considering that no one else has really figured out on demand printing in the same way Topps has, Im waiting for Panini to start going down this direction with their knockoff Instant brand cards. I have already said that direct to collector sales strategies need to be amped up across the board, and from what I can tell, this is a tremendous benefit to that strategy type. We need more of this and soon, as it gives access to cards for collectors who dont live near card shops and dont trust retail outlets to have any integrity around the card aisle.

Hopefully this continues to be a worthwhile strategy, and it doesnt stop with the Living Set.

I fucking love the NFL draft. Because of the intrigue, drama and wheeling/dealing, the event has become a spectacle. Unlike many other spectacles, this is one that i watch almost beginning to end. The major challenge with watching the draft and being a collector at the same time, is that I automatically think of hobby implications every time anyone is drafted. Here are some of my reactions seeing what happened last night.

THE ENTIRE FUCKING FOOTBALL CARD COLLECTING POPULATION – WINNER

Everyone celebrate! I said Celebrate dammit! There were 5 QBs taken during the first round, and hot damn that is like Christmas in April. The hobby loves QBs because they tend to be the only part of the collective in Football that has any type of career longevity. Running Backs and WRs have become disposable, and though we see the hype with Saquon Barkley, his hype is only as good as his age. Sometimes you have an exception like Adrian Peterson or Ladanian Tomlinson, but for the most part, all the RBs drafted in 2007 and 2008 save Beast Mode are gone. He already retired once. QBs are the currency by which we live our collecting lives, and seeing this being the year of the QB is a feast of riches I am desperately looking forward to.

Baker Mayfield – Winner and Loser

Other than Barkley, the former Heisman winner is the top rookie in the class in terms of value. His celebrity only adds to the fact that he went number 1 overall, and its crazy to think that this is the way it all worked out. For months leading up to the draft, Mayfield wasnt even slated in the first round in some mocks, and that is just the beginning. Somehow, the Browns thought he was worth shooting for the moon, and the rest will have to wait for October. Aside from my feelings on Mayfield, going number 1 is a great thing for the hobby. Its always good for the most popular players to go 1 and 2, which is exactly what happened. The reason I said this was a loser for Mayfield fans is that Cleveland is a graveyard of terrible decisions. Its not good that he is going to Cleveland, and though they were making some moves over the offseason, its still fucking Cleveland. At least he recreated the famous Favre pic, which was a completely awesome move. I love that, for sure.

Since going #1, his cards have spiked significantly. No one was really expecting the pick until that night:

2018 Contenders Draft Baker Mayfield Cracked Ice Auto /23

2018 Leaf Metal Baker Mayfield Blue Refractor Auto /50

2018 Score Baker Mayfield Green Auto /6

Saquon Barkley – Winner

Great player, going to a good but not great team that was destroyed by injury last year. He will have a lot of weapons around him, and that means he will see a lot of production he maybe wouldnt normally get. The only issue is that we saw the type of production out of Kamara and Fournette, among others, and the hobby doesnt really seem to reward it. Barkley could be different, but odds are that he wont be. Lets just enjoy the value while we can.

Josh Allen – Loser

I wasnt high on Allen to begin with, for many reasons. Seeing that he dropped from being the potential top pick to ending up at 7, isnt good. Diggers uncovered some pretty damaging tweets from when he was in high school day of the draft, and it may have impacted which teams were willing to bank the next few years on his integrity. Allen in Buffalo has a good team around him, one that made the playoffs last year. Im curious how this works out, because of all the QBs drafted yesterday, he has a lot of potential to be a bust.

Joe Flacco – Loser

When the Ravens traded back up into the 32nd pick, Flacco had to be squirming like he just threw five picks in a playoff game. Lamar Jackson may not be the top rated prospect ever drafted, but this was a clear signal that Flacco’s time in Baltimore is just about over. Think Alex Smith in KC last year, and look what happened. I like the pick, as it is almost no risk for the Ravens. His contract will be tiny, you have Jackson for 5 years under control, and if he flames out, it wasnt like you spent a ton to get him.

Calvin Ridley – Winner

Getting drafted to play along side Julio and Matt Ryan in Atlanta? Holy shit, good for him. Alabama players always have a lot of collectors following them around, but this could end up being one of the better picks of last night. Traditionally, WRs just never have very much value in the hobby, but I wont be shocked if Ridley has a great start to his career just because of his talent and new team dynamic.

Patriots Collectors – TBD

Really thought they were going to take the heir apparent to Brady. Instead they drafted Sony Michel, who should automatically drop 25% in value across the hobby. Belichick doesnt use RBs like the rest of the league, and as a result, already reduced value for RBs should be doubly so for Michel. He will either get a ton of touches or too sporadic of a production line to maintain any true collecting hype. That being said, with Mason Rudolph and Kyle Lauletta still on the board, they may use one of their day 2 picks to shore up the position and groom a guy similar to what happened with new hobby darling Jimmy Garoppolo. If they do draft a QB tonight, look for that value to skyrocket. Collectors like to expect lightning to strike twice with Pats backup QBs, even though for every Jimmy Garoppolo, there is a Ryan Mallett to match.

The later rounds tend to be where shit goes down and goes down with a crazy amount of fun, so keep an eye out for guys like Derrius Guice, Nick Chubb, Courtland Sutton and the rest of the QB class to come off the board. This is going to be awesome, and I cant wait to see how it plays out.