Its Bowman release day, which means that baseball collectors all over the world are busy mining for OhtaniCoin all day. With his hot start, and his historical significance of playing both Pitcher and DH, it becomes a very interesting decision of how some people are going to want to approach this year’s product.

Check out these initial listings, they are not for the feint of heart:

2018 Bowman Chrome Shohei Ohtani Atomic Auto RC /100 – No way this gets paid for, but still fun to see

2018 Bowman Chrome Shohei Ohtani Atomic Auto RC /100 – Example 2 – Again, kinda crazy to see, but not realistic

2018 Bowman Chrome Shohei Ohtani Blue Auto RC /150 – Not realistic. More crazy than the others.

Here are the ones that look more appropriate:

2018 Bowman Chrome Shohei Ohtani Base Auto RC

2018 Bowman Chrome Shohei Ohtani Base Auto RC – Example 2

I dont think that the question is whether or not spending the money is worth it. We have come to understand that 9/10 times things dont end up finishing the way they started. Pitchers are especially challenging, as we know that when (not if) Tommy John happens, some players are never the same. Ohtani is a bit different because of his hitting skills, and Im actually curious to see if the Angels keep him on the mound.

That being said, prospecting players at the top of the mountain is a VERY dangerous game. I think that the majority of the hobby fails to understand that prospecting rarely even plays in the space that most people expect it to. More importantly, using cards as an investment is a horrible idea, especially when you see what real investments can do when understanding the market is a talent of an individual.

Ever since Albert Pujols, the prospecting game has become a way of life for many people, some well before that. Albert Pujols was the first of the modern day prospect big boys, and it has been a chase to find the next momentous player ever since. Funny enough, the Bowman era encompasses a number of future hall of famers, but only a handful have really been blockbusters.

That begs the most important question here – should we really be buying Ohtani at anything above comparable value? Lets use Clayton Kershaw as a good example of the best of the best, because he definitely fits the bill. Not only that, but his Bowman cards are among the most valuable for any pitcher in the modern era. That includes Strasburg, whose original hype was very similar in nature to this year.

Lets say Ohtani base autos settle in around 2-3 thousand, if not lower. That puts him in line with where a nice graded example of a Kershaw might land with the right situation. Kershaw is widely regarded as one of, if not THE best, pitcher in the league. Not only that, but he has done it for a number of years, on a popular team, and doesnt show any signs of slowing down.

Its worth mentioning that Ohtani’s international fans will inflate value artificially, just because of what always ends up happening with a limited crop of players and even fewer ones that are truly good. Factoring that in, what does Ohtani have to do for him to remain at Kershaw levels? Quite a bit from a comparative records type of situation. Kershaw has multiple Cy Youngs, an MVP (AS A PITCHER!), and some advanced stats that make his 2.36 career ERA look even better.

Comparatively, that’s a tough pair of shoes to fill. Hype trains have a way of keeping people on board with high values long after they deserve it, so that could also be a factor. I mean, how long has Andrew Luck had crazy numbers in football, despite a down 2 or 3 years? People just love hype. Look at Stanton, look at Judge, look at all the guys who have celebrity above and beyond their playing accomplishments.

Lets look at hitting too, as Ohtani might end up being great there too. Hitting and pitching combined is where we could reach Ichiro levels of extended value, combining the international crowd with the hype and extended playing results. Ichiro never had Bowman cards because of a UD exclusive, but if he did, they would likely be pretty hardcore in terms of value.

Again, the problem is, Ichiro may go down as one of the best pure hitters of all time, along with a tremendous fielding career to match. I doubt anyone will reach that level for decades if ever, and like Kershaw, they are big shoes to fill.

So, lets say he is somewhere in the middle, combining both talents – just how hard is that to do? It hasnt been done really, since the pre-war era. That’s what people are buying into, but they are also expecting that he reaches even a portion of the potential he has been playing to. Pretty big risk for such a high amount of cash.

That’s why many veteran prospectors arent touching players like this. Players that start of out of the gate as a fucking meteor, and tend to cool off from there. Funny enough, last year’s hype with Aaron Judge may have been a great example of where things can get truly crazy. Judge was pretty inexpensive for a few years as he made his way through the Yankees’ system. When he got up to the big leagues, and started mashing, his base Bowman autos soared. Collectors that were in at 25-50 a card, now had 1000 plus on their hands. Some were just lucky Yankees fans, others were prospectors who were sitting on potential unrecognized.

Ohtani just doesnt fit that model, and really isnt even in the same area code as any real prospect since Strasburg or Harper. Although Harper has developed into a superstar, Strasburg ended up falling well short of expectations due to injury early on in his career.

I understand that for people that have the money and are Angels fans, its hard to stay away. I would be very much in that bucket, for sure. I always post stuff like this when the train gets rolling, but that wont stop anyone from busting boxes at exorbitant prices to chase down the cards. Now with Group Breakers in the mix as well, all of a sudden, it becomes much easier to feed the beast.

Topps has actually gotten extremely lucky with so many huge prospect players back to back, and that is VERY good for the hobby. VERY good. Im not complaining one bit about that. The more we have of stuff like this, the better it is. A rising tide floats all boats. Im just curious to see how many people who are going to spend the thousands actually understand the humongous risk that comparative value is showing to be present.

Right now, sports memorabilia is very much reaching a new collecting high, despite the fact that I dont think that sports cards are really exploding in the same way. Because of the way that things have played out with increased value tied to game worn materials, most of the parts of the hobby that have been a constant since 1996 are getting more and more difficult as a result.

Lets play this out.

Since 1996, millions of game worn swatch cards have been inserted into packs of cards. This includes swatch cards of players who have very limited amount of material from their playing days available.

This goes back to the pre-war era, where finding game used materials of original hall of famers became something that was of equal importance to individual collectors and card companies alike. Things like Babe Ruth material and Mickey Mantle Material became the top grabs, and since the early 2000s, it has become almost impossible to find. Luckily for everyone, Ruth’s celebrity had an impact on preservation of his gear. Same could be said about Mantle, with both players having more available material than someone who was less famous.

This led to companies like Upper Deck, Topps and DLP (nee Panini) to create sets that used a lot of these relics to get collectors on board with some amazing retired focused sets.

Fast forward a bit to today. Most of that material is now either A) gone or B) too expensive to acquire at this point in the game. Similarly, game used material is now a competition between three groups of people instead of just two. In addition to collectors and card companies, the leagues have wised up about the value of the material they have at their finger tips. You might even be able to add players to the mix, as some have realized that saving their jerseys to trade could be huge.

This has driven up the cost of acquiring new material to cut up, and when you also see that relic content isnt even that valuable any longer, Panini and Topps seem to have made a choice. Rather than play the game for a piece of game used jersey to create a card that few people still find valuable, opt for “player worn” material that mirrors their practice with rookies in the NFL.

If you are unfamiliar, the way card companies have handled the NFL rookie crop for the last 20 years is nothing short of insane. They realized early on that in a league dominated by impactful first year players, something had to be done to get relic content into packs. Back in the beginning of the 2000s, when the relic boom was at its height, Upper Deck found the answer. Instead of waiting until October for the few rookies that mean anything to get on the field, they were going to create a process that brought relic content to packs in May.

During the Rookie Premiere, 40 of the league’s top rookies gather up and sign thousands of autographs as well as put on close to a hundred jerseys that the card companies use for ALL rookie content in packs. This means, for a rookie to have game used material at all during their rookie year is very unlikely, if not completely absent. It has been this way for 20 years, and it is the only way all 40 premiere attendees get the rookie patch autos that everyone chases. Think about it, how many of the 40 guys see the field every year? I can guarantee it wont be 40.

Taking that process to the rest of the NFL saw a huge uptick this year, and for once I kind of see why it is being used. Doesnt mean I agree with the practice, but I do understand it. Most collectors dont understand what “Player Worn” means. They dont get that it is a stack of jerseys that is worn for no more than 2 seconds, done off the field. They also dont really assign value to most relic content that isnt also autographed. If that is the case, why should Panini continue to invest in the platform? I gotta say, the case isnt strong.

One would expect that the money saved in the overall P&L should be reinvested into the product, but Im not sure how that might be happening, if at all. Panini’s goal is likely to keep the cost of producing a given product the same year over year. Removing the cost of acquiring game used material from 85% of the non-rookie players should provide some relief. Im curious what that might mean for investing in the other parts of the product that also cost money.

This begs the question – Does player worn content become the equivalent of sticker autographs in the hobby? I think the answer is yes. Sticker autos can still be valuable as we have seen. People dont like them, but they dont stop buying products because stickers are included. Look at National Treasures – full of stickers, still widely bought.

I dont like sticker autos as much as on card, but I have resigned myself to understand that they arent going anywhere. I can kick and scream all I want, but it wont do much. The logistics of completing signings with stickers is just too valuable for companies to ditch. I would guess they all want 100% hard signed all the time, but when some players only sign twice a year, its not always feasible to include signatures without huge redemption percentages.

I will say, its not that the explosion of player worn materials isnt frustrating, because we see products like Flawless use the content just like a lower end set like Phoenix. That’s not what expectations would dictate as acceptable.

At the same point, we are going to hit a point where game used supply is just going to be very difficult to get access to. Even more so for players that are sadly dying earlier in their life as a result of the game. When competition for the relics becomes more and more expensive, the more companies will look to find alternative methods. The only way to combat that is to speak with our wallets. So far, their experiment has shown its not a big deal. Lack of knowledge surrounding the nature of the relics, combined with a desire to get new additions to a yearly calendar has shown the issue to be a non-starter.

The same talk track can be used in regards to authenticity of the game used relics. With constant questions surrounding whether or not relics are actually game used, player worn material may be a step above, believe it or not. Would you rather have a questionable game used swatch or a 100% authentic player worn one? Im not sure I would want either one, but other collectors would definitely be in a different situation.

Overall, it might be that relics are well past the point of being the bedrock of the industry’s ability to sell product. At some point, we need to understand what the trade off will be if we continue to want relics to be part of our ongoing engagement with packs and singles. At least, for most of the players that are now going with player worn relics instead of game used, most already have a ton of cards in inventory that were done the old way.

I have never been a supporter of graded cards. If you go back through the 10 years of this site, you will see my anger grow with each passing year and each new business tactic the companies use. I have never seen the real reason why people put so much stock in such a subjective process, even more so now with “Black Label” cards commanding such a premium. One could say “the market has spoken,” which is abundantly true. I know my measly site is not going to turn around a tidal wave of people who spend their days pouring over listings looking for the “best” versions of the cards they want. That doesnt mean Im avoiding the discussion either. Hyper mint graded slabs as a premium example of any given card should never be a thing. I want to detail why I see this as a huge problem and not something we should continue to support.

Background

Grading came about for a number of reasons in my opinion, and I always come back to this every time I post about my feelings here. Back when the majority of single card sales shifted from in person to absentee, there was a requirement to understand what you were buying before you bought it. With digital camera technology miles away from where it is now, photos of cards sold via the early days of eBay and the internet were of much lesser quality than they are now. More importantly, without the technology to examine something super closely without actually being there, it became necessary to set up a way to know what to expect without holding the card for sale in your hands. This is important for both reviewing condition and authenticity. It also takes away accountability from shop owners and online sellers whose opinions of card condition was driving sale prices.

Much of that has changed with 1000000 megapixel cameras in use these days, many of which are being carried in our pockets. That’s not saying the service of condition grading isnt helpful, but the way that BGS and PSA continue to market things, a card being mint is no longer enough to achieve the top value available. That’s where my issue lies in part. Its no longer about giving a grade based on easily identifiable standards, its more about baiting collectors into chasing hyper mint grades that seem to be based on microscopic differences in card quality.

Conflicts of Interest

Im going to cover two problems with grading, both of which should be very important in considering why this business should not be held with the level of certainty that it currently is. The first is the conflict of interest present in the concept of this model, and the second is the subjective nature of the grades themselves in a hyper mint environment.

As mentioned above, BGS and PSA dont do this for free. In fact, it can be quite expensive to grade cards. That means that they are required to attract new and existing business from the pool of market customers. Because there is no regulatory body other than the company’s reputation, and humans complete the process, it can be manipulated to ensure more customers continue to submit their cards for grading.

Lets put it this way. Lets say you have a customer who wants to grade 1000 cards. They have a choice on who they want to use. They likely have a preferred vendor that is preferred because of two things – price and results. Price is standard to a point, and is very easy to change to accommodate big orders. That’s not something that should come as a surprise, nor does it really undermine the whole trust of the process. The second part, results, can be much different.

Because of the subjectivity of the hyper mint grades, there is a conflict of interest present in providing better treatment to individuals who spend the most money. Although you arent going to bump an 8 to a 9.5, bumping a few 9s to 9.5s or 9.5s to 10s is a very good way to ensure repeat business. Again, im not saying this happens all the time, but the conflict of interest is still very present.

All that im saying is that this conflict is a very real challenge to the integrity of the process, and from what graded collectors have told me, has contributed significantly to how they value one company’s grades over another.

Subjectivity Conflicts

This is where the meat of my problem with the business comes from. It literally drives me fucking nuts when a collector pays something like 100x value for a card just because it has a hyper mint grade on it. It drives me insane, because we are literally talking about microscopic differences in most cases, which prevents a true accountability for the results everyone achieves.

Each grade is derived from a human examining the card. Each human employed theoretically has a different viewpoint, even in the interpretation of the outlined rules. Because grades from Gem Mint to Pristine to Black Label dont offer a truly visible difference to the naked eye in most cases, it allows for some wiggle room in how the hyper mint grades are achieved. Although the grading companies stand by their results, and cite their reputation, the subjectivity is enough to create a culture of collectors who take “under graded” cards, crack them out of the cases, and resubmit them. This happens so frequently that you can actually see it happening real time in the slab population reports of results publicly available. Mixing this culture with the practice of creating scarcity through serially numbering cards, you can actually see cards with 10 copies that have been graded as many as 20 times.

Lets take this a step in the other direction as well. Because of the subjective nature of the process, “over graded” cards are rarely justified in their grade. No one is going to take a black label and crack it, just to verify that the grade is legit. Once a card reaches a hyper mint result, the process is almost 100% done. The bible for that card now exists, and there is no reason to question it on the seller side or the buyer side.

Its also very clear that BGS and PSA built their grading business to scale easily. This includes on site reviews at major shows and events, as well as expedited grading times to ensure a quick turn around. What this also means is that no information is likely available past what is published on the slab itself. Its not like a collector who has received a very bad or a very good grade will ever get a report of why the grade is what it is. If my card that I believe should get a 9.5 comes back a 9, I have nothing to reference that explains why my card got the result it did. This sheds more accountability on the behalf of the grading company, and adds more fervor to the refrain that getting a hyper mint grade is as much luck as it is actual condition. Combining this with the conflict of interest that exists, my disgust over collector acceptance becomes very much engaged.

What is Grading Actually Good For?

Honestly, grading does have a few pluses, and they shouldnt go without saying. The first is that authenticity is still very much a worthwhile service that the company provides. Many counterfeits exist, and I actually believe the people who staff the grading companies do have a better handle on the methods than the average collector. Sure experts exist elsewhere, but not in a large enough quantity to avoid this service’s worth.

Similarly, since the beginning of condition based value in collecting, there have been people who have tried to find an edge. This includes trimming edges and corners to ensure a better “condition” and other things like that. Most of the time, this is easily snuffed out by the grading companies, and is a very good thing to have in place.

Lastly, some people like the protection the slabs provide for their cards. As someone who hates the look of most graded cards, I dont subscribe, but others very much do. I have seen people literally put a graded card in boiling water and not see any damage.

What is a better way?

From my point of view, building a scale of 1-10 that has VERY clear markers, no half grades, and focuses on easily identifiable flaws to downgrade a card’s condition is what I am looking for. If a card is an 8 I want to see clearly why it is an 8. If a card is a 10, or Mint, it should be clearly a 10. There is zero reason to go above Mint Condition, as that is how all of these other problems exist. Transparency in the product should be clear or it needs to be regulated by some disinterested third party.

Obviously, this presents a business model that the grading companies wont be able to stomach. It creates an environment where they no longer have as much influence, and no longer set themselves as the main determining body of card condition above and beyond mint.

I want to affirm that im not upset that grading exists, as there are bodies in almost every hobby that do the same thing. Where my anger lies is in the business side of this venture. Making money is going to be more important to the companies than their customers, or even their reputation in some cases. Im not sure how many people actually understand the implications of what that means to the integrity of their cards.

I get it, card collectors are a group built on vanity. We want to have the best collection, the best card, and now the best version of that card anyone can have. The grading companies have played and preyed on that desire, and here we are. Hopefully, people start to wise up and understand that all may not be what it seems.

This is the best time of year for high end football collectors. Not only is the NFL draft about a month away, but its the time of year when Panini is going to typically bring out their two biggest sets in National Treasures and Flawless. Although I am someone who thinks this would be a much better break around Super Bowl Sunday, this is what we all wait for every year. With sets like Optic Contenders also making waves, it feels like this year is really going to close on a high note.

Check out some of these cards:

2017 National Treasures Patrick Mahomes Rookie Patch Auto Stars and Stripes Logo

2017 National Treasures Alvin Kamara Rookie Patch Auto Stars and Stripes Logo

2017 National Treasures Dalvin Cook Rookie Patch Auto Stars and Stripes Logo

2017 National Treasures Leonard Fournette Booklet Patch Auto /99

2017 National Treasures Drew Brees Auto Patch /25

First off the line boxes started arriving on Friday for those lucky few that got to them, and so far, it looks like this is one of those configurations that is working well. Other FOTL boxes have fallen flat with watered down configurations and not much response from collectors on the exclusive cards. This feels different. The stars and stripes version of the Rookie Patch Autos are great looking, and more importantly, its been tough to find ones that dont have incredible patches in them. It helps that this year’s design is among the better ones I have seen in the last few years, coupled with an Acetate finish that is really good looking.

As for the rest of the set, we are seeing the typical stuff out of NT that comes every year. Booklets, patches, and tons of content, alongside another year of stickers, single jerseys and junk that I still cringe over every time this set comes out. National Treasures suffers from too much content, and since the format shifted to 9-10 cards per pack, 4 of the hits have been relative shit that seems to increase price of the box but adds nothing to the configuration.

Watching the first off the line boxes has been interesting, because some of them are so good and others are just that bad. Having a case with 4 RPAs though is worth the price of admission, especially when other cases of the regular product may only have one or two. The rest of the product looks good, save the jersey cards and other content on the periphery, something that has always been the bane of NT’s existence. Curious to see how much non-rookie on card content is included this year, as it seemed very sticker heavy. I cant even put into words how frustrating that is, especially when we see how beautiful a set like Impeccable is.

We need more hard signed content in a box that costs this much, maybe reserving the stickers for the scrub autos that are never on card. The addition of more non-rookie player worn material doesnt help either, because if a set is going to be game worn, it needs to be this one. I can harp on this all I want, but the fact of the matter is that it almost is worthless to argue. Collectors dont seem to care enough, and that is beyond sad. Panini is also likely limited in their ability to continue getting game used content at a cheap price, but some sets should never face that dilemma. NT has to be the best of the best, and that means player worn non-rookie content should be as limited as stickers should be. I would even go so far as saying Panini has found a way to make a relic version of stickers, changing out game used content for player worn more and more this year. Its true that this content isnt as cheap as it used to be, but that’s where sets like Donruss and Certified Cuts need to be the trash can for the player worn garbage.

Overall, this set continues to be much better after really falling on its face prior to 2013, regardless of how much the cards are worth. Cards like Watson and Mahomes could crack a grand per pull, and that’s an accomplishment in itself. Football just isnt generating the blockbuster stuff like baseball and basketball, and its good to see collectors latching onto the rookies with potential. Lets hope Flawless continues down this path.

I havent had a lot of time lately to update my site, as having a baby at home combined with a crazy work / life balance issue doesnt translate well to blogging. That being said, this product release has been quite intriguing.

Going back to 2016, Encased was a fucking dumpster fire in my opinion. Ugly cards, goofy posed photos everywhere, and a crazy expensive box price was horrendous. Yet, much like we see Panini do on a regular basis, they brought it back. Much to my surprise, the product has improved significantly, not because the posed photos are gone, but because Panini seems to be making this a product driven by inscriptions.

Check out some of the bigger cards:

2017 Panini Encased Patrick Mahomes Inscription Auto BGS 9.5

2017 Panini Encased Alvin Kamara Inscription Auto BGS 9.5

2017 Panini Encased Mitchell Trubisky Cap Patch Auto BGS 9

2017 Panini Encased Leonard Fournette Dual Relic Auto BGS 9.5

It really begs the ultimate question. Can something like unique autograph content deliver a reason to open a product that I would normally stay FAAAAAR away from?

To a degree the answer is yes, because I think inscriptions are still special enough that it can bring some additional reasons to rip through boxes you wouldnt normally rip through. Even though the photos are still so, so, so fucking bad, they really speak to the side of me that may forgive them somewhat for choosing that direction.

Considering that each rookie can sign almost 30,000 autographs a year, its time to spend some of that time delivering autograph content that isnt the norm. Because players dont always know what to do when asked for inscriptions, it can be very difficult to generate this type of content. That’s why, when done well, its super special. Its also a reason why Panini shouldnt waste the concept on a set like Encased, especially considering how important it is for them to continue to keep the idea sacred enough to generate value above and beyond.

At some point, I hope that a premium release like this morphs to showcase some great looking cards that also use inscriptions as the primary vehicle to deliver autographs (as best as can be done with the players). More importantly, try to move away from graded box hits, as so many of the grades did not deliver gem or even mint grades across the product. Because cards are thick stock and signed on card, players’ handling them to sign the autographs almost ensures that grades wont be where they need to be. Although I understand the concept, I find it to be overkill against a set that really could benefit from extra cost generated through grading being delivered into the content instead.

There is a LOT of potential in Encased, but it was fucking wasted in 2016, and borderline lost in 2017. So much could be done to make this a keystone product for Panini, and instead its a forgotten release that seems to get lost among the super premium space that invades the NFL offseason.