Let me start off this post by saying that I DONT mind logoless cards, as long as they are done well. Some of National Treasures IS done well, and deserves attention from collectors. Other parts of National Treasures are so bad that it shouldnt have been produced. I think that this product had potential to be a really nice set, but im not sure it turned out that way.

Here are some of the bigger cards up so far:

2015 National Treasures Kris Bryant RC Colossal Auto Patch Logo /10

2015 National Treasures Mark McGwire Notable Nicknames Inscription Auto /10

2015 National Treasures Kyle Schwarber Silhouette Tag Auto 1/1

2015 National Treasures Barry Bonds Silhouette Patch Auto /10

2015 National Treasures Yoan Moncada Cuban Flag Patch Auto

Panini has a history of poorly designed National Treasures cards with low quality production, going back years. This is mainly because they feel like a humongous set with few good looking cards and a bunch of worthless horribly designed crap is a fine substitute for a smaller, well designed product. Ill give it to them, collectors seem to agree, as people bust the shit out of anything National Treasures.

The problem with baseball, is that even though a logo free design can be nice, there are a growing portion of collectors that wont pay up to normal value on the secondary market. Because of this, cards can start off hot during the first few days, and then tail off like crazy. It has happened frequently since Panini started making MLBPA cards without an MLBP license.

Similarly, when the cards have no logos, going deeper and deeper into a giant checklist becomes a terrible idea. There are just not enough people out there to buy the big cards, let alone the piddly shit that Treasures is full of. Awful looking cards only make things worse.

Now, it does have some hard signed cards including some very nice examples of some stuff that I hope makes it into Football. Outside of that, I have seen some absolutely BRUTAL breaks that make me question how anyone can risk breaking into this set.

I think that Panini could have made a product here that is worth breaking, especially when you see some of the cards that they could have produced. Instead, we are left with the bitter taste of under-performance, reeking of Sticker Autos, diluted checklists, and too many crappy relics that never sell for shit. When I see how bad the football sell sheet looked in many examples, I start to get even more afraid for next year when this is all that will remain in my favorite sport. I didnt think more fear was possible, to be honest. Guess I was wrong.

Let me start this off by saying that Brian Gray has a history of going big. From the first look at the sell sheet for 2016 Leaf Metal Draft, its clear that he is ready to make quite the statement. Not only is he excited to release a prospect based football product in the midst of Panini ramping up their exclusive, but he has a new future HOF on his roster to sell the product further.

I have been a fan of this set for a while, here are some of the previous cards:

2015 Leaf Metal Draft Jameis Winston Auto Green Refractor BGS 9.5

2012 Leaf Metal Draft Russell Wilson Auto Silver /99

2014 Leaf Metal Draft Derek Carr Purple Auto /25

2015 Leaf Metal Draft Marcus Mariota Gold Auto 1/1

Personally, I think that this upcoming draft class is going to be mid to weak in terms of strength of the talent. We all know that sleepers are everywhere, and a big game can set things off, but there are no Winstons and Mariotas this time around. At least, that’s what it looks like on paper.

Adding Tom Brady as a hard signed autograph to a product like this will sell a dramatically higher amount of boxes, even if the jerseys are retouched to remove logos. Brady has signed a bit more as of late for Topps and Panini, but this is the first time he has signed outside of the normal big companies in a long time. Maybe ever.

Overall, the design looks great, as it has for a number of years. Brian and his design team have done great work making the Metal cards attractive since the beginning, and 2016 is no exception. Although I think the inserts are quite rough in the way they look, the base is what matters. Im excited to see how the set does, as it should be one of the first new class based products of the year.

When Panini announced this set at the end of 2014, I could not believe the decision to dilute the Contenders brand in a way like they did. Not only were they going to reuse a HORRIBLE 2014 Contenders design, but they were also choosing to use sticker autographs instead of hard signed cards. It was literally the worst type of retread there was, bringing absolutely nothing to the table in terms of a product worth creating, let alone buying for the same price as regular Contenders.

The excuse I was given for no on card autographs, despite EVERY ONE of their competitors (including Topps) releasing hard signed sets, was time. I was told the timeframe of the acquisition of the NCAA exclusive license didnt give them enough time to make it work. Well, we just got our first look at 2016 Contenders draft, and absolutely nothing has changed despite the extra time. The delay of regular Contenders into January makes this even worse. I am left literally scratching my head, wondering why they would choose to start off the first year of their widespread football exclusive, with more retread trash, just like last year.

I have said a hundred times since Panini signed away the fate of the Football category, that they will need to innovate to ensure that we dont for the door as fast as possible. They cant just sit back and hope that collectors will put up with their previous set construction models, and not want to set their collections ablaze with frustration. This is the opposite of that notion, as it is clear that this set exists outside of any fresh ideas what-so-ever.

Instead of using a new design, a new perspective, or even just a new level of quality, they trot out exactly the same formula as last year. I just cant make sense of why they would consciously choose to take one of their most important brands and take a huge watery dump all over it. When you see how far the secondary market has tanked on the 2015 set, and how far the box price has fallen, some sort of change was needed. Obviously that didnt happen.

Im not saying that the pre-draft space isnt ripe with collectors who are so thirsty for new draft picks, that they will drink the proverbial sand in the desert they are walking through, I am saying that a commitment to quality is something that seems to be lost on Panini’s brand team. They want to churn out as many sets as possible, with as little effort and cost as possible, without realizing that short term sales numbers may end up hurting them long term.

Regular Contenders was just released this week, with College variation tickets. Considering that the same thing will likely happen this year too, I question how much of this niche market the pro collectors will stand for. Upper Deck found out first hand how much having too many sets can impact the way people respond to their products, and Panini is already far beyond that point in their calendar scheduling.

When we look at the way 2016 is going to shake out, I am fucking frightened as to how many of these types of sets are coming. Sets that do nothing but put another product on the shelf, knowing that closeout and group breaks will help float the boat. Its sad, and people wonder why collector attrition percentages are in the double digits over the last five to ten years. If you want to go out and support garbage like this, you lose the right to complain when nothing progresses to a better state for the industry.

Despite what I feel is a very spotty history of good looking cards, the release of Contenders is an event each year. Personally, I feel like this product has delivered some of the worst looking cards I have ever seen, and people seem to love it regardless. Luckily for us, this year's ticket design actually looks pretty damn good.

Here are some of the top hits up so far:

2015 Contenders Jameis Winston Rookie Ticket Auto

2015 Contenders Marcus Mariota Rookie Ticket Auto

2015 Contenders Chip Kelly Coaches Ticket Auto

2015 Contenders Amari Cooper Rookie Ticket Variation Auto

2015 Contenders Stefon Diggs Championship Ticket Auto /99

I really like the way the ticket design went back to being much like 1998, where the ticket actually is present on the front of the card. The full player picture looks great, and the on card signatures work really well. I still dont like the cracked ice or foil versions of the cards, but people go fucking ape shit over them. They are back this year, and thankfully, it looks like the busy stock isnt as prominent this time around. I can actually focus on the card, without straining my eyes. Thats a good thing.

As for the subsets, these are where things have usually been the worst of the worst. This year isnt great, but it isnt as bad as we have seen in previous years. To be honest, no one really buys Contenders for these cards, so I dont think a mediocre showing takes away from the success of the set. These inserts are relatively boring, but I would much rather have boring instead of absolute hideousness.

I also dont like that the college ticket variations are back for the first time since 2009, as it has already been done early in 2015 with their awful draft set. I dont see the point of watering down the pro product with further reminders that Panini now has a college license. Although the autographs are on card, it is another exercise in whipping out the NCAA cards whenever they can.

With on card autographs come redemptions, and I am starting to be curious why they didnt delay the set even further. There are an absolute ton of redemptions for the top players in the product, with missing cards from Gurley, Winston, Cooper, and a large number of other rookies. Although I would definitely expect many of these to be filled quickly now that the season is over, some of them had live cards in previous products released within the last month. Im curious what happened, but I am sure its a priority thing.

There is a new element to Contenders that I am quite intrigued with, especially with the coaching carousel going down as we speak. The Coaches Ticket set has some pretty big names, and not all of them may be with the same teams next year. I hope this is back next year with an expanded list, especially if they can get guys like Belichick (not part of the coaches association), or Carroll.

Overall, I feel like this is finally a good class to match a good Contenders design, and I will be eager to see the way it performs. After seeing how much some of the cards dropped last year after a few weeks, hopefully we will see more people respond to better looking cards.

With only one day left in the year, its time to go back through all that was 2015 and talk about the best and worst things that shaped the year. If you dont like these kind of recap posts, I completely understand, but I think its pretty interesting to run back through the things that we experienced over the course of the year.

Best Product: Topps Dynasty Baseball

I know, its a cop out to pick something recent, but this one deserved all the hype it got. I still find myself seeking out case breaks to watch online, as each one is exciting to see what comes out next. Although the product DID have flaws, I cant think of one that I had more fun chasing. Not only are the patches absolutely insane in just about every way, but the design just screams super premium. Parts of the checklist might have been weak, yet the dud to win ratio in a case is very good for a high end product.

Check out these cards:

2015 Topps Dynasty Will Ferrell Auto Patch 1/1

2015 Topps Dynasty Cal Ripken Auto Patch Laundry Tag /5

2015 Topps Dynasty Ichiro Suzuki Mariners Logo 1/1

2015 Topps Dynasty Mike Trout Angels Logo Auto Patch /5

Worst Product: Panini Spectra Football

Like every year, Panini had some huge fucking dogs on their calendar. Gridiron Kings, Rookies and Stars, Playbook, Clear Vision, all disgustingly awful products. Nothing compares to Spectra. I understand that there is a cult of people out there that like it, if not only because its easy to pull 1/1s. I dont get it personally, as I dont want ugly pulls, even if the player quality is nice. The eye burning crazy patterns, the horrendous neon paint pens, the price point, the design of the actual cards, all were so bad I cant even put it into words.

These hurt my eyes to look at:

2015 Spectra Amari Cooper Auto Patch Blue /15

2015 Spectra Marcus Mariota / Jameis Winston Dual Patch Auto Green /5

2015 Spectra Todd Gurley Rookie Auto Jumbo Patch Pink /5

Best Storyline: MLB Rookie Madness

Lets break down this rookie class. Bryant, Correa, Sano, Schwarber, Matz, Buxton, Lindor, Pederson the list goes on and on. Every week in Baseball there was a new rookie to chase, and many of them had great years. Although both Bryant and Correa didnt get far in the playoffs, the class itself was legendary. Lets hope that many of them go on to be stars. The hobby was absolutely enthralled with each of these players and rightfully so.

These prices on many of their cards were astronomical:

2015 Topps Chrome Kris Bryant Blue Refractor Auto

2013 Bowman Chrome Carlos Correa RC Auto

2014 Bowman Chrome Kyle Schwarber RC Auto BGS 9.5

Wort Storyline: Panini’s NFL Exclusive

As a huge fan of what Topps has done in football, it killed me to see that Panini had secured another league exclusive. Even though they do have some products that are worth our time, as a whole, this spells disaster in many, many ways for collectors. Not only is a 60 year presence in the sport gone, but it is replaced by a company that doesnt even produce the best sets. Its sad to think that this will be the first year in almost 60 years without Topps.

Biggest Flop: 2014 National Treasures and the Odell Beckham/Teddy Bridgewater Disaster

Right around draft time in April/May, Panini released what was going to be the set with the most value to many collectors. The problem was that hundreds and hundreds of cases were being opened without any of the best cards being pulled. At the time, Odell Beckham was the top rookie in the class, and Teddy Bridgewater was a clear second place. For a few weeks, no one pulled their main cards. Each were numbered as high as 99, and they were AWOL from the first wave of cases to hit. Many blame Panini or collation issues, which are all rooted likely in some aspect of the truth, but in the end, it was just a sheer train wreck.

These remain some of the most sought after cards in the product:

2014 National Treasures Odell Beckham Auto Rookie Patch /99

2014 National Treasures Teddy Bridgewater Auto Rookie Patch /99

Biggest Surprise: Digital Cards Take Center Stage

Both Topps and Panini now have apps that focus on digital cards. Both will be making huge investments in digital come 2016. Although Digital has been around for years, nothing made more news this year. Topps recieved mainstream coverage online and in print surrounding Star Wars Card Trader, and Huddle was NFL licensed for the first time. In fact, Huddle may end up being the way Topps continues to be competitive in the football market next year, and I love that in so many ways. Digital opens up doors to a world of consumers that never pay attention to physical trading cards, and that means the hobby can grow for the first time in almost a decade. With Topps users numbering in the hundreds of thousands, you can see why this is such a big deal.

You can see how high some of the digital cards can sell for:

Top Star Wars Sold Cards

Top Huddle NFL Sold Cards

Top Bunt MLB Sold Cards

Overall, the one thing I took away from 2015 is that things are changing and changing big time. Some things for the better, others very much for the worse. Either way, its clear that 2016 might end up being quite a boom or bust year for all of us, and for everyone’s sake, I hope it turns out well.