More than a year ago, Panini announced that they had secured an exclusive deal to produce cards with current players through the NFLPA. As one of two major parts needed to block out competition, the writing was on the wall for the beginning of 2016, when the new deal would kick in. Then silence for a long time. A LONG TIME. So long that doubt began to creep in whether Panini would get the other half of the deal with NFLP, who controls the logos and licensed materials for the league.

Yesterday, Panini told distributors that the other half of the deal is now in place, which is literally the worst possible news for football collectors. Not only will this end any possibility of Topps using NFL logos or jerseys for the next decade, but it basically removes all hope that football cards will rebound from the decline in popularity we have seen over the last 10 years.

A Raw Deal

Exclusives suck in general, especially when the company who secures the exclusive deal doesnt produce anywhere close to the best cards in the sport. Compounding that is when the new company basically cancels out the continuation of 60 years of history and a name that new customers are more likely to recognize.

All of the above is my opinion, and I understand that my absolute hatred for their horrid products is not universal. On the other hand, one thing is indisputable, and that is the money associated with both sides of this deal. When the first leg was completed last year, everyone who was part of the industry, including some people at Panini mind you, were absolutely dumbfounded by how much was committed to the NFLPA. Based on what I have gotten first hand, there is not a single person who can figure out a way that Panini will walk out of the first deal with numbers that arent red.

Adding in the new NFL deal, those numbers have seemingly gotten worse, and again, the people I trust to have a good understanding of this side of the business are all scratching their heads. Here is what we know:

• Although the NFL remains the most popular sport in the country, it is losing popularity in cards. It currently sits behind MLB and NBA.
• NFL card products arent selling as well, singles are insanely soft, and the football hobby is losing more people than it is gaining.
• Minimum guarantees (the amount of guaranteed revenue promised during the course of the license) are astronomical, and create major problems in the methods needed to generate said revenue.
• MANY more products will need to be created to ensure that the guarantees are met
• Topps and Panini combined to make more than 30 products in 2014, and will do so again in 2015.
• Panini is expected to take over what Topps left behind, plus some, just to hit agreed targets. One team doing the work of two is most definitely not the best situation, even worse when the track record is as it is for Panini products.
• From what the industry professionals have told me, coming out ahead just isnt possible, and Panini will likely have to pay up to the minimum guarantee taking a major loss. This does not include fees and other payments to secure the license deal in the first place.

In case you dont want read the bullets, basically Panini will not make any money on the NFL, unless they pull out some sort of miracle. You can go into this with a positive perspective and say that they will find a way, hiring people or pulling their heads out of their collective asses when creating new brands, but that is a hail mary at best. The numbers are just too big for the card business the way it is now.

I cant find the angle here, other than one specific premise, one that has been on the table since 2009 – a war of attrition. Panini must think that securing all these exclusive deals will force other companies out of business or at least to their knees. They believe that come 2020, they will own 4 of the 5 major licenses (MLB, NFL, NBA, and NCAA), and the NHL will be with UD, who has shearing for millions in tax debt in the near future. Once all the other companies are on their last legs, the buy offers will go out. Either that, or they will be able to stomach the losses for the length of the deals while their competitors starve, and renegotiate later.

Manifest destiny RARELY ever works out for anyone, and usually leaves a trail of scorched earth in its wake. As mentioned before, Panini is making BIG promises in a hobby that has shrunk considerably over the last 10 years. No one is really sure how those big promises wont end in disaster.

In fact, the only people bringing in a steady stream of new people to the game is Topps, and they are not using physical cards to do so. Panini using this strategy is like going out and buying a newspaper company. Sure people still read the news, but its no longer prominently through newspapers delivered to their doors. That is what I dont get, even if you force your competition out the door, you gain access to 100% of a hobby that is shrinking, not growing. I have said that the hobby will never die, which is still true, but no one is denying that the people heading out the door than walking in.

Potential Impact

Before I start – here is another post I did on impacts that could be felt.

As said previously, the impact of this shitty deal is pretty profound, especially in the way it changes things around the hobby. Even though Topps is shut out out of the NFL, it doesnt mean they are completely out of the game. They can still produce unlicensed legends products that have no logos, as long as they are able to secure group license agreements with players to participate. This can be lucrative, especially if their products continue to have superior design and quality over the massive tidal wave of cookie cutter Panini garbage that will hit the shelves once the deal begins.

Additionally, Panini is going to take quite a large loss on this deal, especially if trends continue the way they are. At some point, Italy has to recognize that their USA pet project probably isnt shaping up the way they hoped it would. Right now, its clear that the current people in the American branch of their card business have a blank check from their sugar daddy, but business is business. Why continue to invest in a branch of your business that is hemorrhaging money from every orifice? If that is the case, the entire industry might be on shaky ground if Panini Italy decides its time to stop wasting money on a product that isnt going anywhere but down.

More importantly, Topps Digital doesnt look to be impacted by this deal. From this Q&A they did to start the team it looks like theymight separate from impact on physical. This means their golden goose should remain in tact, as long as the NFL wants to play ball. Not only does this continue to bring Topps closer to the forefront of the public consciousness, but all those new people they bring in will come to identify with the brand Topps puts out, not Panini. If Topps had football cards to tie to their apps, Panini might see more benefit than they would without that presence. Now there is no reason for Topps to do any programs that lead their digital users to the physical football hobby. In fact, its almost better to drive them more into the fantasy football side of the business instead of cards. Too bad really, because Topps Digital is looking more and more like the future of the industry, not Panini.

I am bitter about Panini finding a way to get their grubby little fingers on this exclusive, no doubt about it. I see them as irresponsible, unmotivated, and more interested in looking good rather than actually BEING good at what they do. Topps isnt perfect by any means, but they arent the people spending what they spent on a lavish VIP party either. Let us not forget that a lot of the people who were part of the brass at Fleer are now making a home at Panini. We all know how Fleer turned out, and it doesnt seem like they are learning from their mistakes.

To be honest, I really do want to be positive about this, but its hard to find a silver lining when the reality is so bleak. The sky may not be on top of our heads, but it is definitely falling from my point of view. It took a movie universe to save comic books, and unfortunately, there are no stories here that Hollywood would be able to churn out every year. This is a hobby that will eventually exist with no industry behind it, and that is becoming more and more clear with every exclusive that Panini signs. The question is whether or not the collectors will start to realize how terrible the exclusive deals are before its too late.

When High Tek came out last year, there was buzz around the set, as people really liked the throwback product type that reminded people of the late 90s and early 2000s. After a number of weeks, buzz died down, and many of the main autograph hits started to really dip in value. The same thing has seemed to happen in 2015, as you can get some amazing deals on autographs of top players that would normally be significantly more expensive in other sets. The cards also look really nice on the acetate with on card signatures.

Check out how some of these cards look:

2015 Topps High Tek Carlos Correa Auto RC

2015 Topps High Tek Joc Pederson Bright Horizons Auto – LOVE this design

2015 Topps High Tek Mike Trout Drama Tek Auto /25

2015 Topps High Tek Cal Ripken Jr Gold Waves Auto /50

2015 Topps High Tek Mark McGwire Cloud Auto /25

Lets start with the positives. Tek is all on card, acetate focused and is a celebration of gaudy shiny designs, which the hobby usually loves. The autograph checklist has big names on it, and a lot of very low numbered paralells. All a recipe that the base of collectors usually like very much. Im kind of shocked that you can pick up a Kershaw, Trout, Bryant or Correa for some of the prices here, especially for a set that is less than a week old.

The hobby really confuses me sometimes, as its clear that for as much as we complain about stickers, the use of on card doesnt necessarily guarantee a premium. As we are starting to see in football, relic content is almost as important as the autograph, which really seems to be a diversion from the past. I didnt expect to like Topps High Tek all that much, but the cheaper box price and fun chases seems to add a level to this product I wasnt expecting to be enjoyable.

Im curious to see how Topps processes this, as it might be that their focus on doing more with on card autographs has desensitized people more than they would like. The crazy thing is that stickers havent been devalued to the point that would make this theory plausible. Overall I am not sure what

I find it very interesting the way Baseball cards differ from other sports, especially collecting tendencies in comparison to Basketball and Football. Topps Update is the third set to use the 2015 Base Design, which I dont think would ever be tolerated anywhere else. However, because Topps Flagship still reigns supreme in Baseball, its not only tolerated, its celebrated.

Here are some of the bigger hits up so far:

2015 Topps Update Ken Griffey Jr Highlight of the Year Auto /25

2015 Topps Update Carlos Correa Black RC /64

2015 Topps Update Rod Carew Rarities Auto /25

2015 Topps Update Noah Syndergaard Auto RC

Personally, I dont identify with set collectors, and honestly, most of the anal retentive characteristics of the individuals are completely foreign to me as a whole. I get that releasing another Topps set plays to the completeness necessity that many collectors experience, and though there is new content outside the base set, its not the main focus.

The extra content is really what I identify with, extra autographs, All Star game cards, and other programs do interest me, especially if they look as cool as some of the designs have in years past. The All Star game cards are especially interesting, as they havent been available in any of the other products. The Baseball ASG is the only one that still is interesting to watch, and cards commemorating participation still resonate as a result.

Additionally, we get the first true flagship rookie for guys like Correa and other members of the enormously productive rookie class. The parallels will sell very well, especially the rarer ones and variations.

My favorite part of the set is the crossover program with Topps Bunt, in the form of rare inserts. I posted a write up here:

http://digitalcardcentral.com/2015/10/21/crossover-set-from-topps-bunt-takes-center-stage-in-update-baseball/

Being that these cards are rare and valuable, I will definitely be following along as they surface. These will turn out especially nice for digital cards, and I cannot wait to see what happens. As you can see, they sell for quite a bit, which is crazy for unsigned non-relic cards:

2015 Topps Update Buster Posey Universe Bunt Redemption Code Card /25

As a whole, Update may not be something I am super excited about, but I know there are a lot of people out there who love the rookie aspect of the set. Of course, the standard photo variations and other inserts will always be popular, but maybe this just isnt my set.

I dont get it. I really dont.

When Panini came out with Playbook Football in 2011, it didnt sell very well. When they brought it back in 2012, it sold a little better, only because of Luck, Wilson and Griffin. Even then they are still very cheap examples of their rookie autographs. In 2013, they couldnt give it away. In 2014, they changed the format and it arguably did worse than 2013 – despite the horrible 2013 draft class. For some reason it is back in 2015, and this time it looks worse than ever.

I will say that I like the Playbook box hit cards from 2011-13, despite the horrifically bad box price. I own some of these singles and they are really nice in person:

2012 Playbook Andrew Luck Auto Rookie Patch Booklet

2013 Playbook Adrian Peterson Auto Patch Booklet /5

2013 Playbook Cam Newton Auto Patch Booklet /10

2014 Playbook Calvin Johnson Nicknames Booklet Jumbo Patch

I think the silhouetted style player picture approach with the acetate looked really good, up until going to a black border and headshot in 2014. At that point, things went awry. Of course, outside of a few SPECIFIC cards, the entire set was fucking diarrhea. Turd worthy designs that showcase everything that is wrong with the hobby. Just looking back through some of the sets, I am getting nauseous just from the horrid looking cards.

There were two saving graces outside of the white bordered rookie and vet auto booklets – Down and Dirty and Game of Inches. Despite the porn friendly set names, these cards are crazy awesome. Die cuts, dirty patches, and really nice uses of the booklet technology.

Check them out from previous years:

2014 Playbook Russell Wilson Game of Inches Patch Booklet

2014 Playbook Marshawn Lynch Down and Dirty Jumbo Patch Booklet

When it comes to other autographs and relics, the set ranges from terrible, to an absolute hot mess. Each year showcases some of the worst ideas Panini comes up with in their Dallas collector torture chamber, and 2015 is no different.

Looking at this year’s trash, the changes to the main booklet hits make no sense. Not only is there stark and infuriating asymmetry in the design, it is further highlighted by the fact that Panini decided to put them on a vertical axis instead of a horizontal one. The recessed window and the player picture inside it is beyond weird and perfunctory, as it serves literally no purpose in the design. These look uneven and unbalanced, and I dont get why they would screw up something that actually looked good way back when.

Additionally, the vertical booklets with horizontal pictures just dont work for me at all. They are literally giant relics with simple black borders that compose the cards. Panini has literally taken NFL jersey relics and made them the design of the card. Slap a border on them and off to the printer! This is amateur bush league bullshit, which uninformed collectors seem to love because OMG SIZCKS MOJOS PATCHEZZZZ!!!

As a whole, Playbook is aimed at the part of the hobby who seem to care only about the content of a swatch instead of the design around it. This crap is made for group breakers with catch phrases, who need an animated gif to further accentuate their over exaggerated feelings. I hate it. I hate even more that people dont care about how little design is actually going to be a part of the card. They can waste their money all they want.

When you see a set like playbook, it becomes more obvious why Panini has been unable to create any lasting brands in their football shop. All their successful brands come from prior to the takeover, or are from Basketball. When you actually look at what the football team has built on your own, its hard not to laugh at how hard they have fallen on their face.

Im most scared to think what 2016 is going to be like, when Panini is forced to produce any number of new sets that have to be built to satisfy the enormous minimum guarantees that they have promised to their new bosom buddy in the NFLPA.

For now, we can only pray that Topps finds a way to stick around. Otherwise 2015 might be the last time I buy new football cards.

Im very happy that we are already starting to see some action on previewing upcoming 2016 sets. Museum Collection has been a collector favorite over the last few years, mainly because of how nice many of the cards have looked. It has been a product that has made the jump to football as well, and I am a fan of both versions for sure.

That being said, this is one of those sets that has a good side and a bad side in a VERY definitive fashion. Here is the good side:

2015 Museum Collection Clayton Kershaw Framed Auto

2014 Museum Collection Sandy Koufax Gold Framed Auto

2014 Museum Collection Bryce Harper / Mike Trout Dual Auto

2014 Museum Collection Jason Heyward Bat Nameplate 1/1

Here is the bad side:

2015 Museum Collection Ken Griffey Jr Jumbo Relic Auto

2014 Museum Collection Bryce Harper Triple Relic Auto

2014 Museum Collection Freddie Freeman Jumbo Logo Patch 1/1

Because a box costs as much as it does, the content needs to be premium. Premium in a way that presents an opportunity for the collector to walk away feeling like they have something awesome looking, even if they get skunked. Obviously, there will be 11 boxes that DONT have a framed card in it, and that means Topps has to deliver. This is where Museum has had some success, but also some major failure as well.

As we see with 2016, the Framed cards again look really nice, even though they look a bit different with the white embellishments to the design. The on card autographs with the black and white photos and silver signatures look nice too. They did really well with these last year, thanks to some big names on the checklist. My main issue is that the rest of the set looks relatively awful. So bad that I would avoid buying this product out of fear that I end up with one of the sticker autos as my main hit. You usually end up with 1 on card per box, but that doesnt always mean that its going to be something good. That leaves the relic auto for you to have as your box hit, and they are not good looking cards at all.

So many of the cards in this preview look crowded. The entire preview is claustrophobic in a lot of ways, especially when you see some of the way they incorporated relics into the design. That McCutchen Logo makes me hyperventilate its so packed in there.

Similarly, the boxy look on the autograph relics gets incredibly crowded, especially when the third relic is added in. In past years, this has also been the case, and I HATE HATE HATE that 'L' shaped presentation that looks like a tetris piece. The saving grace in previous years has been that the rest of the design is super clean, where this is far from it. Borders bring in the usable space to close to nothing, made even more apparent by the close up pic of the player.

Here is the thing. I love the look of the on card autos, but those depend on checklists more than ever. Now that Topps has made a commitment to getting more and more on card autos in their products, people are looking for better player quality, and unique content to match. This means that just having on card autos isnt enough to maintain value, regardless of how nice the cards look.

People will go nuts for the framed autos, as they always do. I think that Museum has become a premium product where where people only chase one rare set. That is not a recipe most would like to see. I hope we see that there are some surprises that give us a bit more to chase.