Back in the middle of August, we got the first shot across the bow with Fanatics’ entry into the sports card arena. They had wrestled away the MLB exclusive from Topps and were poised to do similar acquisitions in the NBA and NFL. Now that we have had an opportunity to digest all the news, I wanted to take some additional time to walk through a few more aspects of the takeover now that more of it has come into focus.

What We Know

Thanks to some reporting from the Wall Street Journal, it became abundantly clear that the MLB exclusive secured by Fanatics was not going to be the end of their head first dive into sports cards. When the news first broke, WSJ clearly stated that the NFL and NBA were next, and within a week, both had made announcements similar to what Topps faced.

Come 2026, Fanatics will have exclusive control over the NBA, NFL and MLB sports card market, and in the case of the NFL, we also know that will be a lengthy contract. Adam Schefter reported that they had negotiated a 20 year exclusive, which is not only fucking ridiculous, but kind of a moot point. When the leagues have a stake in the company producing the cards, there is no more negotiation. Fanatics will make cards for as long as they want to.

Similarly, we know they have big plans. According to a CNBC article posted a few days ago, Fanatics plans to use their retail empire to do a number of things that could have a vast impact on the hobby. Services and businesses adjacent to the production and sale of trading cards is in scope for this new world order, and none of it should be surprising.

Things like grading, authentication and retail stores are all within scope, some of which already have roots planted in the current Fanatics environment. Fanatics has been authenticating and slabbing player signed cards for years, mostly with a huge stable of signers that have used their company as a primary vehicle for their signatures.

We also know that Panini and Topps are going to face down some challenging times once this goes into effect, having lost the majority share of the market to this new juggernaut. One could point to other property licenses that drive revenue, or finding ways to produce unlicensed cards, but neither will generate the type of influence that they get from the big three.

This could lead to companywide transition periods for both major manufacturers, with many hobby pundits thinking a sale of assets or the entire company could be possible for both. I have heard things that are more than rumblings stating that Fanatics is going to be looking to acquire intellectual property to supplement their team’s creative brain trust, but nothing concrete has been announced.

What We Don’t Know

As of right now, we have heard little to nothing from Fanatics, or their leadership in terms of any concrete plans for 2026. They have been oddly quiet given the storm of news, and with four and a half years to make this work, I guess we shouldnt expect much speed in revealing their chess pieces on the board.

We also have very little idea of what will happen between now and 2026, as there were early reports that the player’s association exclusives could go into effect earlier than the property exclusive that gives rights to the logos and team names. If the player’s exclusive licenses do go into Fanatics’ hands early, they could potentially lock out a lot of action that would give Topps and Panini access to make cards of current players. Leaf has found ways to sign individual deals with guys like Steph Curry, Aaron Rodgers, and Giannis, but finding enough talent to mass produce profitable products at a level to satisfy license requirements is going to be VERY tough.

The main key question is how Fanatics plans to unleash their presence, either focus on capitalizing on a market that has become increasingly focused on super premium product lines, or shift to a more mass market appeal. If the licenses were slated to start tomorrow, I think it would be stupid to totally abandon the current approach, mainly because of the historic success cards have had since the beginning of the pandemic.

As that hype cools, something that has already started for the bottom 50-75% of the market, there is clearly going to be some desire to appeal more to the people who dont want to spend $1000 on a box of sports cards. Considering that Fanatics has already optimized their businesses and relationships to do that, it seems like a combo approach should be on the table from the get go. Normalizing the availability of cards is something many collectors want, while still providing a premium experience for those that want to engage in that fashion.

Because Fanatics has such a wide web of influence, I think we are going to see a brand new era of cards that has some of the same wheels turning as before, with a whole different car and driver built on top of them.

What is Coming Into Focus

If there is going to be a constant as the hobby hurdles towards this massive shift, its change. Things across the industry will change dramatically. Some will be for the better, some will be worse, some will be a train wreck. The adjacent businesses like the community of group breakers, retail shops and distributors/dealers will absolutely need to adjust. If we look back to the online shift, it took decades for some aspects of those areas to catch up.

There are still shops around the country that missed the boom because they have/had no clue how to stay agile in this industry. Others in the hobby have found ways to exploit the lack of agility in the industry, and its likely they are going to have to rethink their approach at some level.

Its obvious that the hobby’s entrepreneurs will find ways to stay relevant, but the people that can navigate the waters in the most effective possible way to create new services, new money making opportunities, and new exploitative techniques will progress quickly. Probably more quickly than they have in past shifts, because there are SO MANY more eyes on this hobby.

When the previous shifts happened, things were orders of magnitude smaller, and much easier for people to stand out. Places like COMC came into being because it was easy to see that a service was needed in their market spot. I would almost argue it was too easy, because we see how those peripheral businesses have struggled to scale with the boom.

Fanatics has scale built into their model from a retail and production standpoint, but what they dont have is experience. That aspect of building can be poached and acquired like the licenses, so its likely not as big a deal when you have half a decade to get ready.

Lastly, we dont have any clue how things will change before 2026. The card industry boomed in two years, and another four on top of that seems like a lifetime. I could see the news that collector’s favorite products will be transitioning into Fanatics’ hands or oblivion could both hurt and help value – depending on where those items sit on the spectrum of worth.

There will also be more licenses changing hands that could impact value across the board, and even more change coming from a business perspective. This is one of the hobbies where the secondary market is exponentially more important than the primary market, and that influence is beyond important.

Shoes, video games, comics, and other collectibles face the same dilemma, but licensing is much more fluid or non-existent in those universes. Fanatics has taken over a billion dollar industry in one fell swoop, and with that comes the burden of the supporting markets.

When you think about it, come 2026, everything we know in this hobby will have the potential to look entirely different. I cant remember the last time that happened, and it might not happen again. We always wondered what the next big thing would be after the invention of the jersey card in 1996. This is bigger.