Yesterday I wrote about the consolidation path that was outlined across a few different pieces published in the Wall Street Journal and CNBC. Across those pieces, the industry was clued into the first list of priorities that are on the radar for Fanatics as they prepare their industrywide takeover in 2026.

To compliment the articles, Fanatics CEO Michael Rubin was a guest on CNBC to detail their recent Series A investment and $10.4B valuation.

During the video, there were a few interesting points that he seemed to be very up front about, and I want to take some time to offer some reaction and temper some assumptions based on what has been shared.

Major Question: Will this license exclusive across MLB, NFL, and NBA be reminiscent of what we have seen in the past exclusives from Panini, Topps or Upper Deck?

Rubin’s Explanation seems to be pretty explicit – these licenses are just a small piece of the puzzle, which I discussed in detail in the previous post. Its clear that he sees the creation of his new business as an opportunity to revolutionize the industry in a way that has never been attempted. Collectors to this point have had a predictable reaction of fear and anxiety, but also one of limited scope. Most collectors dont seem to understand the scope or scale of what is going to be happening here. Fanatics is about to become a world leader in collectibles and sports memorabilia, having already been a world leader in fan apparel. This isnt just about trading cards, this is about a creation of a new giant entity in our world that will permeate almost every area of our collecting consciousness. Looking at this approach with only trading cards in mind is like looking at Microsoft only from the context of Outlook Email.

Major Question: What happens if this fails?!?

Again, scope and scale. This isnt like we are looking at a tiny company making waves in an ocean. Fanatics seems to be positioning themselves with huge amounts of investors and league support to make this a long term success. The approach might be simple, but the execution is complex, just as it was for the last inflection point back with the creation of Panini America. Bottom line, looking at this not being successful is not only short sighted, but unaware of the general context of how they are going about this whole plan. First, they have 4+ years to get ready, which is a lifetime in business. More importantly, they have league support in equity and influence that is almost a guarantee that they will be able to do things that Topps and Panini could have only dreamed of. They are also going to be exploring more channels that break the decades old methods that almost suffocated the industry after the 1990’s collectible boom faded. Although I am not advocating that people give this a chance, what I am saying is that the current trading card market is only part of their success plan. That means that parts of this whole could fall flat on its face and it wouldnt sink the whole ship.

Bottom line, this isnt a discussion about whether or not Fanatics’ card products are going to sell as well as a comparable product from Topps or Panini. Although that’s a long term measurement metric of ongoing success, its one with too limited a representation of how Fanatics will integrate themselves into this industry at a core level. I dont think anyone is expecting that the first ever Fanatics Flagship MLB product will sell like Topps Series One out of the gate. I think that with the support of the league and the new channels they will explore, the measure of success will be far different than just the secondary market price of specific box, single or case.

Major Question: How will the industry change?

I expect wholesale changes by 2026 that will be implemented in pieces between now and then. The $350M in Series A funding looks to be set aside for startup costs, and it looks like they have a number of other investors in line. Although the average joe collector sees this as an apocalypse on the horizon, many investors are seeing this as a gigantic opportunity in one of the hottest goods available now. My take is pretty simple – if there are people out there who are involved in some sort of trading card business venture or adjacent service, they have the next few years to solidify their investments to sustain their existence when this eventually is executed in full. Although the wholesale changes might not sink everyone, its going to sink a number of people. Some bigger than others.

Scale is really the main thing here, because the main impacted parties will likely be the distributors and group breakers who rely on scale to make their operations work. If Fanatics removes that element from the supply line, some will adapt and survive, countless others will not. I read somewhere that the number of group breakers operating online and on Facebook has increased ten fold over the last two years. Not all of those people will have the access they once had, or the scale available they once had.

Rubin spent some of the interview outlining the priority around direct to consumer sales, which for decades in this industry was an afterthought. Manufacturers have started experimenting, but their ongoing dependence on distributors and shops to move product meant that they were limited in their ambition. Fanatics is clearly not taking that approach, and rightfully so. Retailers like Amazon and eBay will undoubtedly be looking for clarity on their potential role in the retail space, and it may be that Fanatics decides to move more of their sales to a digital format or an online storefront that provides complete access to more collectors and casual fans.

Similarly, when considering the adjacent businesses like Grading and Storage, those things may not change immediately, but its clear that everything is going to be different eventually.

Major Question: Should we support these new overlords?

Here is the thing. Its up to you, just like it always has been.

Right now a lot of people are complaining that prices are too high and the hobby has shifted to a point where they cant participate any longer. For those people, I would expect that this could be the breath of fresh air to get back involved. For others that operate on a premium plane or in an investment based experience, this will undoubtedly impact the way they participate. The good thing is, its not like all the old stuff just disappears. None of that stuff will automatically become worthless because there is a new game in town. The same fears were in place in 2010, and were generally proven to be incorrect.

I personally have no dog in this fight any longer, as I have sold every major sports trading card in my collection. I just find this whole situation fascinating to an exceptional degree. I feel as though I have become a student of the industry side of this hobby for the last 15 years, and it has given me a different perspective than collectors who are scared about the purchases they have made for their collection. Will your 50 year run of completing the annual Topps set be over? Absolutely – in 2026 it will be, unless Fanatics decides to purchase the IP. Will the enjoyment of your collection diminish because that yearly venture is no longer available? I dont think so, but its on you.

Fanatics is a business coming in with a fresh slate and one that I want to see in practice. I dont have any investment to want it to be successful or unsuccessful, but as an observer, it is a lot of fun to watch it play out. Advocating for change is something I have done since 2008, and for the first time ever, we are getting it across the board.