Right now, things are in a state of chaos with the NFL. Its literally one big clusterfuck, and that is putting it lightly. As the lockout continues, possibly past the start of the 2011 season, many things will be affected by the lack of football during the course of the latter part of this year. Football is a sport that engulfs the whole nation, and even if they get their season underway, there is no guarantee that all will be as it was. This year will prove a test for the teams themselves, the fans of the game, and most relevant to the subject matter of this blog – the card industry. There is no question that lack of football will bring down sales, possibly to record low levels, but has it already affected things as it is? That is where the discussion needs to be had.

Starting with the pre-draft products, I don’t think there was any drop off in the selling price or the sales of the wax for any of the products released. Both Upper Deck and Leaf made a better than expectations show of their initial products, even to the point where this discussion may have already been settled. However, the products from both UD and Leaf were not licensed by the NFL, and it is yet to be seen if the values will hold on the secondary market. Low print runs on both company’s products could sustain them well into a nasty labor situation, and that may not change if the NFL eventually gets started.

For reference, here is where the top Leaf and UD cards are ranging:

LEAF Mark Ingram Metal Superfractor RC 1/1

LEAF Cam Newton Metal Red Refractor Auto /5

LEAF Cam Newton Metal Red Refractor Auto /5 #2

UPPER DECK Jake Locker Ultimate Auto RC

UPPER DECK Cam Newton SSP RC Auto

UPPER DECK Christian Ponder Ultimate RC Auto

Once the post draft products get going, starting with Prestige, the interest level may fall as soon as opening day comes and goes with no football in sight. Most pre-season products hinge on potential of upcoming production from the rookie class, something that may hinder success completely if there is no play to back up the prices. Plus, without an offseason to help the rookies get acclimated to a league with a more complex style of play, the production may never happen as it normally would. With four QBs in the top 15 draft picks this year, this class could be lost in terms of hobby value when all four don’t have the normal level of prep walking into their first few games on the field.

Lastly, if 2011 season ends up being cancelled, im not sure what will happen for each of the companies who produce football cards. Topps’ bread and butter is baseball, so a lackluster performance on those products wont cripple them like it would others. Panini may have drastically overpaid for their NBA exclusive, but I would expect that football is still a main money maker for them. Considering that collectors are growing continually more and more tired of their cookie cutter approach and lazy attitude in terms of design and concept of their products, who knows what this will do for them. Again, because they have licenses in 2 other major sports, it may just be a year they will have to write off as a bad one.

That isnt to say that nothing may be majorly affected by an NFL lockout. It could turn out that collectors are so hungry for some aspect of football that they will buy cards just for a whiff of the gridiron. It also may turn out that the NFL shocks us all and gets this labor issue fixed before any games are missed. It’s a distinct possibility, even though its one that I have all but given up on. If either situation ends up being true, you can color me both shocked and highly excited.