I stepped away from blogging a few years ago for a number of reasons. It was taxing to try to come up with content on a daily basis, a new job was (and still is) dominating my time, and kids were running rampant through my house. Now that the hobby has seeming been put on a trajectory similar to that of the mountain climber on the Price is Right, I wanted to make sure to use this platform once again to share some long form thoughts. As much as I would like to believe that this will be a return of sorts, it really isnt more than me getting tired of the character limit on Twitter.

The Backstory

I started writing here in 2006-2007, right when the super premium aspects of the hobby really started to hit top speed. Exquisite on the NBA side was hitting it’s stride like nothing I had ever seen before, branching out into the NFL en force, and dabbling in baseball as well. Donruss Leaf Playoff (DLP), the founding format behind Panini America, had just released National Treasures football in 2006 as an answer to Exquisite. Because there was no DLP basketball license in place, Upper Deck and Topps really ran the show. All of this is really important in the greater context of things, because as the velvet rope of the top end of the sales spectrum became more defined, Panini became the driver as league exclusives settled into place for all four major sports.

Additionally, where the major talk about the explosion of high prices present since March has all been derived from people that exist in that space. Although many products they are buying six figure cards from exist from the middle range of boxes, the people dont fit in the same spectrum as many of the collectors I engaged with during that original infancy of this new modern engagement with cards.

Over the next 10 years, the super premium space that Upper Deck pioneered and Panini exploited to build their brands, things changed dramatically. Even though products like base Topps and set collector focused products still existed, high cost products like National Treasures became a standard as Upper Deck’s legal troubles forced them out of all the spaces they had dominated prior.

Factor in that Topps locked down an exclusive license with MLB and Panini with the NFL, NCAA and most importantly the NBA, and the face of the industry side of collecting was almost 100% different than it was when I started following this closely.

As a result, certain legacy products that existed before this all went down created a focus group of investment worthy products. For those who dont have a good familiarity, here is my list:

Topps – All Bowman Chrome products, all Topps Chrome products, some Finest products from prior to 2002.

Upper Deck – All Exquisite products with pro licensing, SP Authentic with pro licensing, and all premium NBA products with pro licensing.

Panini – All National Treasures, NBA Prizm, NFL prizm post 2016, Contenders, some spin off chrome products like Select.

Basically, if it uses Topps’ chrome type formula, people loved it and continue to want it. There are surely exceptions to the rule, but its extremely rare to see a huge sale from a card that comes from outside this group of products.

The Beginning of the Boom

There is an oft uttered phrase that sports cards outperform the stock market when compared over a certain time frame. This is true to a degree, but the execution of that investment is different than the way 75% of the hobby really functions. Investing in already established high grade cards from very specific players and sets , then sitting on them is not the way most people collect. We buy wax, we buy singles of our favorite teams or players, and we stash them for enjoyment. If we pull something nice, we either sell it or sit on it, but that is all a byproduct of spending on generally unfavorable odds in wax.

All that being said, attention from certain high profile influencers and other investors has brought eyes to the investing in cards that hasnt happened in this way since the 90s. GaryV (nee Gary Vaynerchuk) is the name most twitter collectors associate as a face, but there are likely many others who are occupying the same space, just not as vocally. People like Nat Turner, had defintely taken a different approach for sure, sharing purchases on Instagram, very much in the range of six figures. Turner owned a company that was sold to google for a staggering amount, and being that he is a collector has taken his profile to the moon with the ability to spend in ways most of us can only dream of.

Most of this went down from late 2018 and 2019, prior to the pandemic, where cards like older Jordan, LeBron, and valuable rare NBA inserts from the late 90s started to climb the value charts in a way that seemed uncharacteristic of the previous types of spikes. When Tom Brady and the Patriots won a sixth superbowl, Patrick Mahomes won his first MVP and later a ring, things started to bleed over into other areas – most notably Mike Trout and the major names of current MLB.

In a more notable part of this, collectors seemed to loathe the presence of these new types of investors, mainly because it had already started to drive up the price of super premium wax products, but also cards that seemed to be well below the threshold most of these guys were buying in.

The Perfect Storm

In March of 2020, the world experienced the beginnings of what the Pandemic could do to the economy across the globe. For 50 million Americans, including myself, unemployment became a new way of life. Around the globe things went to shit almost within a two week period. For most countries, this period was something that included a lockdown shelter in place that lasted months. For Americans, a politicized atmosphere led to a host of other problems that persist to this day.

Regardless of that, travel became restricted, outlets of normal spending for things like meals out or bar tabs went away, and the course of disposable income all over the land became different. From what most reports we saying, the people who had lots of money prior to the pandemic did the same or better during this period of time. With no where to spend that money, and economic stimulus checks being provided to everyone else, there was a flood of money available and few options to spend it.

As we saw during the 2008 recession, Americans dont like to save money. As you can imagine, many hobbies started to see huge influxes of cash, with Sports Cards gaining national attention. If you were going to spend six figures on a card before the Pandemic, you now could spend that a few times over with no where else to spend that part of your budget.

The Future

This perfect storm led to a boom unlike anything anyone had seen, with only the collecting boom of the mid 90s being a fair comparison. From this new way of life in the hobby, many have immediately started to wonder about the most important question there is – what kind of sustainability exists?

This question isnt simple, and no economic question should be. In all honesty, I expect some research and many papers to be written about this time, with Sports Cards being among the most odd bump that exists within the study of economics during the pandemic.

Lets break this down, just to make sure everyone has a good understanding of what the possible outcomes could be.

First, everything continues up and we all wonder how high it can go. Second, the prices at the top end of the hobby stay, but other prices go back to a normal state. Lastly, everything crashes back down to where it was and continues on the slower growth path it was already on before the pandemic spike.

For the first outcome where everyone continues to feast, I have to believe that is just not something that happens in any real boom. Although sustained growth was present before, it was a small subset of the greater hobby. It wasnt like a box from a shitty filler set was going for 4x what it was the prior year. Even during the boom of the past few months, I havent seen a lot of new names on the boards buying into boxes of Score Football like its going to contain the next 52 Mantle. On the other hand, I have seen the real focus sets mentioned above continue to be the dominant force behind everything. If its chrome and you can grade it, its all of a sudden an investment piece. Ill get to that in a second though.

Im leaning more and more towards the second outcome, where those pieces on the top level of the hobby continue growing from where they are, but maybe dont hit the rapid growth we have seen since January. All the bottom 99% should start to come down on a steady trajectory as soon as people are able to spend more normally on things. Remember, the summer is a time where family vacations and heavy spending are very common, none of which was available this year. All of that seems to have been thrown into cards instead of savings for many collectors.

To support this, we have already seen a number of areas of product lines start to come down to what was more pre-pandemic situations. Additionally, some spending is going back to normal for many Americans, as bad as that might be for the control of the virus. The next true test will come for the holidays, as gift giving could super-charge things again. Product delays due to the pandemic also seem to have contributed to the boom in a lot of ways, and now that there is a more steady stream it has subsided.

The third bucket where everything crashes is still a very probable situation. Remember, Im not saying it crashes to nothing, Im saying that rapid growth goes back to where it was prior, and gets back on the regular value increase path. Some may come down harder than others, but the record sales we have been seeing may slow.

The Impact of Grading

Personally, I think grading is a scam. Go search the blog for my thoughts as to why a business that sets the market with no accountability, huge conflicts of interest and a never ending stream of value growth is a bad situation overall.

That being said, my opinion doesnt matter. In fact, it is so insignificant that it almost isnt worth discussing. Grading adds exponential value to cards, even though every circumstance shows that it should not.

Because grading has become the standard that qualifies investment, PSA and BGS have been overrun with delays and order quantities in the millions because everyone knows you cant sell your prized investment without some third party qualification on a hyper mint scale.

Many of the large sales are driven by two things – high grades, contrived scarcity in low serially numbered cards or a combo of both. Its gotten so crazy that there are a number of high population graded cards that are selling like they are rare, even when they are not. Its the “DeBeers Phenomenon” almost to a T, and its frightening that people are assigning such huge value to an asset that is readily available.

Regardless of how I feel about the situation, each player has become its own market, defined as much by the previous high sales or low sales of their cards more than the collective potential of their future.

Investing Now vs Not Investing

We all get to the point where FOMO is a big deal. “FUCK ME, EVERYONE IS MAKING BANK BUT ME!!!” something that some have lived as a reality for a few months now. The real situation we should all be cognizant of pertains more to the timeframe of getting in rather than the potential of getting out and running to the bank.

The boom has already happened, and most are now focused on whether it is a bubble or not. If we think back to the .com boom of the turn of the century, a similar situation with the stock market was happening, although with much different standards of value.

For most, buying high and hoping to sell higher is a stupid and insanely risky proposition. This wouldnt be the first time that investing in Amazon and Apple stock past the point where they are American institutions has paid off in spades, its just inherently more unlikely.

There is definitely more money to be made, but it goes back to that group of sets that really have always been the primary driver of value in any sport and any modern context. Buying boxes of products that fit into these situations is also a way to bankrupt your bankroll as well. Investing doesnt pertain to the gamble the same way ripping wax does. Buying singles also doesnt have the dopamine rush that opening an expensive box does. However, its the only way to roll. Period, end of story.

Playing the game smart and buying the right things, even when value is astronomical isnt always a bad thing. Its just not something most of us can afford and most of us would want to spend on even if we could.

My only advice is simple – have fun. If buying an expensive box made you happy before and you can still afford it, keep going. If you loved collecting your favorite team before, why stop now? If you were an original investor and have to come to a decision point in moving on or staying put, I dont envy your position. Just be smart and listen to the experts as much as possible.

This is still a hobby to most of us, hopefully that will remain the same for years to come.