Since I was a kid, there is one PPV that I always found to be the most consistently entertaining. The Royal Rumble has always been a wild ride of emotions since the 80s, and more recently for reasons that have more impact with cards than any other PPV. Wrestlemania may be the most grandiose and important PPV for the television product, but the Royal Rumble is the most important for collectors. I wanted to share my thoughts on this topic because its this weekend, but also because I love this event so much.
Understanding the Importance
There are a few things that drive value in modern WWE cards. They range from potential, to race, to gender, to accomplishments, to legacy. Most of these things are not able to be changed, while others are directly impacted by on screen performance. Things like potential and accomplishments have always driven value in sports, and I would argue that lately, potential outweighs any other attribute, even if the hobby is functioning on old information or tribal knowledge that leads to bias.
In Wrestling, stars can have untapped potential well into their mid thirties, or even early forties, especially if the TV presentation changes the way they are seen by the public. Look at Roman Reigns as a prime example. Prior to his current gimmick as the Head of the Table, he was a stale babyface who had zero edge. A less relatable John Cena type persona. He was beloved by kids, but unlike Cena, few adults were able to get on board with the big dog. When he adopted his first heel gimmick since the days of the original Shield, everything changed. He went from a lower tier collectible superstar to a highly collectable generational talent.
Even though many collectors may still have well seeded hatred for anything Reigns has done or will do, I am among the converted. I see the potential changing just by adopting a new presentation for the character.
The other type of potential that is subject to the Rumble, is a bit different, and it stems from how the company will view the performers in the coming year. A great showing in the match can signal an upcoming push towards the top of the card, or if the person is truly lucky, a main event type match at this year’s Wrestlemania. Seeing the final four men and women in each event can be a huge signal that potential is about to change, even if they dont win.
Similarly for NXT stars, not being in many collectors purview can change instantly if they are given a featured spot at this PPV. We’ve seen people like Rhea Ripley go far in the match, and then win the title a short time after. There are countless examples of this happening.
The Road to Wrestlemania
Its rare (at least these days) that a Rumble winner ends up being Brock Lesnar or someone who needs further establishment as a star in the business. Most of the time, we get someone like Bianca Belair who started her meteoric rise to the top of the women’s division last year. Historically, the winner ends up being the focal point of TV for months and months leading up to WM, and for collectors, thats a huge indication that things will change on the potential for that individual.
Wrestlemania is the most visibility that Wrestling has on a national level, period. We’ve seen huge stars have game changing performances at Mania, whether its Bad Bunny, Logan Paul or Pat McAfee. For a budding megastar, the Royal Rumble can be a coming out party of sorts. With the right predictions, or widespread diversification in collecting leading up to the PPV, collectors can see huge value shifts if someone new gets their shot at the main event.
If you look at the WWE’s history, being in that top of the card slot has propelled almost every career that collectors latch onto. Hogan, Austin, Rock, Becky, Roman and others have all seen WM main events change their life. In 1997, this match catapulted Austin to the biggest stage wrestling has ever had. In 2019, Becky Lynch’s win cemented the rise of the Man to the first ever Women’s main event. The future of WWE collecting can progress or diminish with one event.
Who is Primed for a Featured Run?
Much like last year, we are in the middle of two historic runs for both men and women leading into this weekend. Roman Reigns has been champion now for two years. Bianca Belair, almost a year. Unseating either one of them could have huge implications for the collectibility of two stars.
For the men, there are three names that everyone needs to have eyes on. First is Cody Rhodes, who’s epic return at last year’s WM sent ripples through the industry. He is the odds on favorite to win after tearing his pectoral muscle and being out a number of months. Because his first cards since the return are just starting to show up in a large group, this could be a huge year for collecting his stuff.
The next person is Seth Rollins, because since the end of 2021, I dont think there is a male star that has grown in popularity quite like him. He has been a major part of WWEs main event scene for a while, but aside from a short run as US Champion late in 2022, he hasnt held a major title since 2019. Rollins has seen more and more collectors see his contributions as vital and his new persona has driven a ton of fans to jump on board.
Last but not least is the Rock, who for months now, has been rumored as the only match Roman Reigns could have that could sell out any stadium in the world. The two of them have never wrestled, and Roman’s identity of the Tribal Chief stands directly in contrast to the Rock’s celebrity status as a worldwide movie blockbuster. The Rock is already one of the most valuable people in WWE, and a win in the Rumble could reignite some of the crossovers from NFL and NBA to again look to get into the wrestling hobby with the great one as their entry point.
On the women’s side, things arent as clear. People like Becky Lynch and Rhea Ripley have been the two betting favorites heading into the event, mainly because both have business with each of the current champions that would make for great mania matches.
The feud between Lynch and Flair goes back years, and their offscreen relationship deteriorating led to one of the best women’s matches of the year in 2020. Rhea Ripley is the future of the business at only 25 years old, and already having matches that turn heads. Her potential feud with Belair has been hinted at during multiple Royal Rumbles in the past, and was set for a match earlier this year before an injury made the plans change.
Up and Coming Rookies on the Main Stage?
If there was one thing that I think made Prizm and Select landmark products, it was the rookie class. People like Bron Breakker and Gable Steveson saw gigantic value coming out of the gates for each product. I also have to believe both guys will have a big night for the Rumble, along side other NXT standouts like Carmelo Hayes and Grayson Waller.
For the women, I have championed the cause for new talent like Roxanne Perez and Cora Jade, both of whom are set to participate. Because the women’s roster is smaller, finding 30 participants on the women’s side forces the writers to use more talent. Others like Tiffany Stratton and Nikkita Lyons might make an appearance as well.
Overall, WWE developmental is in a great spot with both sides of the coin, and NXT is looking like it might be on a path where those new stars might get a fair shake, unlike what we used to see when management was more focused on the main roster product.
Predictions For the Match
I have to go with my gut on this one, and I absolutely believe there will be some huge surprises over the weekend. I think on the men’s side, a win for Cody Rhodes would give the best story heading into the biggest event of the year in Hollywood. I think we get some big moments with the Rock and Stone Cold Steve Austin as well, as there is rarely a big event in Texas without the rattlesnake making an appearance. I think a sleeper pick could be Sami Zayn, who is one of my favorite new elements of the Roman Reigns storyline that could have a tremendous payoff at WM.
For the Women, my homer pick would obviously be Becky Lynch, but with both champions being babyfaces right now, I dont think that is the right course. For that reason, I think the easy pick is Rhea Ripley, with a hopeful match against Becky Lynch as the payoff, hinted at during Becky’s comeback at Survivor Series and the following few weeks.
Again, the Royal Rumble is so much fun, and sets so many things in motion that collectors always gravitate towards. I hope you guys enjoy it as much as I will.