For the first week of the MLB season, there has been no bigger hobby news item than Trevor Story’s historic run. He has hit 7 HR in his first week in the big leagues, and as expected, collectors are going absolutely nuts. But, unlike many might say, I am going to break some bad news on this – you are too late. Buying now is more risk than high reward, and its breaking the cardinal rule of prospecting. Buy low and sell high.

Here are some of the auctions, you can see the insane prices right now:

2011 Bowman Chrome Trevor Story Base Auto RC

2011 Bowman Chrome Trevor Story Blue Refractor Auto

2011 Bowman Sterling Trevor Story Blue RC Auto

2011 Elite Extra Edition Trevor Story Auto Red /10

Bottom line, this is a dream scenario for prospectors, especially those who have waited YEARS for this time. Most people who have stood to make money already have, and its not from a short term investment in most cases. Trevor Story is a guy who was drafted 45th, to a team that had a need, and I can guarantee you that there were a lot of prospectors who saw him as a guy worth picking up a small stash.

Story’s cards probably sat in people's common boxes since his Bowman card from 2011. That’s the way many prospecting stories start. People like Correa and Harper were drafted #1, so their cards never were rock bottom the way his cards probably were.

That doesnt mean there isnt more money to be made, but the massive increases in his pricing have likely already happened, and the baseball law of small sample size will eventually catch up to him. Even if he goes on to win ROY, he might only go up in a small way. There is a chance that he hits 60 home runs and goes onto be MVP, but there is also a chance that the Twins win the World Series this year. Both are too slim to bank on.

If you are a Rockies fan, sure – go nuts. This is your time to shine. If you are someone looking to make some money on cards, my first inclination is to ask you why cards are your preferred investment tool? Then I would point you to Prospecting 101, where you might learn that buying guys that have already popped is probably the worst thing you can do.

Im guessing that Topps is already looking for more ways to get Story into products, which means he is likely going to be in a lot of products as the year progresses into the second half. He already has 3 Topps Now cards. Considering the draft is coming up and 2016 Bowman is on its way, you might want to figure out what you need to study to find your targets.

I love stories like this because it brings attention to the hobby, especially when you see what kind of money people are paying for Story’s cards. If you remember back to Yasiel Puig, a very similar thing happened to what is happening here. Lots of HR, high batting average and a potential to be one of the next big super stars. We all know how that has worked out so far.

Prospecting is an art, and I would say that most people dont really get how to survive. The ones that do it well are already done unloading Story, and are onto looking for their next guy. They will also have a hundred tales of investments that didnt work out. All in all, there is always risk, and basing a collection on a few games is never a good idea.