Ill say it right now, this past Saturday was most likely the worst day for the value of my collection since I have started. Not only does Ponder go down with a concussion, ending what was a relatively disappointing 2011 campaign, but Peterson blows out his knee. Although Ponder’s injury is not serious, Peterson’s injury may truncate what could have been one of the brightest potential careers. Its just dejecting when your favorite player has a terrible injury, even more so when it means that he may miss part of next season.

His cards are some of the most expensive at the position, who knows what will happen to cards like this:

2007 Adrian Peterson Exquisite Rookie Patch Auto /99

2007 Adrian Peterson Contenders Rookie Ticket Auto BGS 9

2007 Adrian Peterson SP Authentic Patch Auto RC

On this site, I have talked about how fleeting popularity in the NFL can be, mainly due to the rookie focus that many products have. In baseball, a career is RARELY shortened or ended by injury, and most of the products focus either entirely on prospects or entirely on established stars. Football is different because you have many different types of collectors chasing rookie players, some who have as good of a shot to wash out as they do to succeed. When considering the long term value of a guy like Cam Newton, DeMarco Murray or even Tim Tebow, its unusual to consider injury potential before buying. If current ratios hold true, at least one of those three young players will end up with some sort of major injury at some point in the next few years. In fact, Murray already had one significant injury, and its crazy to believe its entirely possible that he could have another. Sure doesnt stop people from paying the ridiculous prices for cards like this. Its a direct correlation with their style of play, and yet, collectors (including myself) do not want to think about a game like Saturday’s affecting value in the future. Considering that Newton is a mobile QB who will take his licks, should someone be willing to invest a ton of money in his rare autos? Hell, two rookies who would have been highly collectable ended up on IR before the season even started! Now look at their cards.

Peterson’s cards have already dropped in value a little bit, even though a guy like Wes Welker made it back to have productive years after a similar injury. However, for every Wes Welker or Willis McGahee, there is a Jamaal Anderson or Terell Davis. Injuries shorten careers drastically, and we have all heard of players like Barry Sanders walking away before the passing of his prime, if not only to avoid a serious hit that could affect the rest of his life.

Davis’ cards still sell well because of Denver’s Super Bowl win, but the NFL is definitely a “what have you done for me lately” league for collectors. When players are carted off the field, their long term value wastes away with every horrible pain filled scream on the way to the locker room. Regardless of whatever they have accomplished prior, most of the buyers are unforgiving enough to continue making an investment. Logic says that most of the younger guys can come back and still have productive careers, but its increasingly harder to return at the same level. Thats why people refuse to continue paying higher prices for their cards.

I will admit that Peterson seems to be a rare breed of competitive monsters, which will hopefully allow a recovery and return to elite status. On the flip side, you have to identify with the cloud of doom hanging over my huge collection, something that I will have to play wait and see with. Hate him or love him, the guy is one of the most valuable signatures in football, which means that there is one less guy to pull that will equal a good ROI on your box. He is a great ambassador for a lot of reasons, and I can only hold my breath with cautious enthusiasm over his career’s future.