If you have been keeping up with the news and rumors on the NFL lockout, you are probably aware that this week, and especially today, are critical in the outcome of the negotiations. Connected reporters are “cautiously optimistic” that a deal can get done this weekend, and that football can begin next week if everything goes to plan. Whether or not this is even close to the truth remains to be seen.
The question, as discussed here on SCU a number of times is whether or not this extended lockout has irrepairably damaged the value of current and future football cards. If you look at current trends, the answer looks to be a short term yes and a long term no. We have seen products like Prestige and Elite completely bomb for lack of a better term, with secondary market values of top rookies not even covering the cost of a box. Basically if you hit the best rookie auto available, you are barely going to make your money back. This was not the case one year ago with top guys like Bradford, Tebow and Bryant. I accredit this phenomenon to both the lockout and the design of the cards released, but we will not see the full extent of things until the rookies get onto the field.
Here is what I am talking about:
Cam Newton Elite TOTC Auto /199
Mark Ingram Elite TOTC Auto /199
Jake Locker Elite TOTC Auto /199
In fact, because products are rookie driven in the NFL more than any other sport, this is where the problem will be. Without the usual off season to prepare the rookie classes for an NFL season, their production will most likely drop below any semblance of a good performance. Top pick Cam Newton is in the most precarious position of all, being a new QB with a new coach, and that doesn’t spell good things usually for someone like him. When playcalling and defense reading abilities were already sub-par rated before the draft, he is going to have some major hurdles to overcome.
I would believe that this situation and the situation of guys like Christian Ponder, Jake Locker, Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton are quite fresh in the forefront of the mind of the collecting populace, as its tough to prospect QBs to begin with. In fact, it may be so tough, that guys like Mark Ingram, Ryan Williams and company may see a boost because Running Backs can excel in even the toughest situations.
Overall, I have to believe that the biggest effect on the card market wont be the lack of football, just the quality of football once they get back on the field. When athletes are put to their own stations, they either run wild or stay on point, and that can affect things more than I am guessing it would. When you consider how different the pro game is from college, you can see just how problematic this situation can become.
One major consideration should be the lack of current star or retired star autograph content in sets. The value of a product that had a checklist of star players you actually have a chance at pulling would hold up. Hell, it’d probably go up quite a bit in price, actually. There is nothing comparable at any point during the season that is released. I would say that Leaf Limited is the only product released during the season that has any type of reasonable chance of pulling a star/hof’er autograph. But, then, the cards look like ass, year after year and they use stickers. I just don’t get it. If people are willing to drop $450+ for the chance at an “A” list autograph amongst the 3 or 4 others packed in there, why the hell can’t any company design a product with 2 or 3 star/hof’er type autos, per pack (or box), for around $150? Especially after the off season. Probably because they wouldn’t be making a 300% profit unless they just continue to dump worthless sticker autos from nobodys into product after product. STOP buying this CRAP people!
Older, on card, autos are holding value just fine. It baffles me beyond belief why the hell people chase rookies in football year after year. I guess that’s kind of the disconnect between baseball and football. When a guy makes ‘the show’ in baseball, it’s because he’s kicking ass at various levels of an organization and proven consistency. With the difference between college football and the NFL, most of these guys just get bajillions of dollars, based on their ability to destroy the 4 ‘gimmie’ games on their college schedule.
I think there’s more upside value in the ’10 class than the ’11 group… still. McCoy got to play last year and actually looked competent. If Holmgren didn’t trade him yet, I’m pretty sure that guy has a pretty good track record with QB’s. Bradford broke many of Peyton Manning’s records but, seems no one even noticed.
A very odd market this football is…
THe real reason that locker only went for 55 bucks is people are skeptical of this rookie class. His completion percentage as a senior was 55%. That is one of the largest indicators of success in the NFL. Newton has bust written all over him, with Pnder and Dalton projecting as serviceable starters, but not Pro Bowlers. I think people are waiting till next year when Luck comes out. I know I’m gonna buy a couple of his autos b/c he’s the best and most ready QB prospect since Peyton Manning.
I think the effect of the lockout will be minimal as long as games aren’t missed. It’s not like hockey card values dropped through the floor when they cancelled the entire season in 03-04, or baseball card values cratered when they cancelled the 1994 World Series. And I can’t remember too much of an impact from the 1982 NFL strike.
The bigger issue is too many overpriced, virtually identical, crappy products.
I’m expecting to see prices on both boxes and singles bump up if (when) the players and owners finalize a deal. Once a deal is finally done, I’m thinking that we are all going to be excited and that’s going to lift the market. Until Inception comes out in August, the calendar is pretty open so I’m expecting the sets that are available now to get a brief window of promising sales.
Having said that, I do agree that this year’s rookies will have it tough once the season starts. That could spell trouble for the value of their singles but if it does, this could be a boon for last year’s rookie class.
You should change the name of this blog to Football Cards Uncensored.
Just sayin’.
I think this rookie class is so weak that it won’t matter. Tough single-card sales throughout the year unless someone breaks out in an “AP” type fashion. I just don’t see it.
I cover intermittent other stuff as it becomes big news. Its been this way for a long time.
Go over to FunnyorDie.com and watch the Field of Dreams 2 video.
You used to cover other sportscards on a much more regular basis, but so far I’ve seen 3 non-football card posts in the last month – Jordan Insert Sales, Error Card Sales, and Low-end SP Values. Football cards are probably my favorite to collect, but I also collect a lot of baseball and since it is baseball season, I was thinking you might have some insight on upcoming baseball releases.