Andrew Luck will forever be judged against the hype he created coming out as the number one pick. Now that we are more than a fourth of the way through the start of his rookie season, the comparisons are going to start, especially when you consider that the best rookie QB ever played just last year. Cam Newton will be the measuring stick for as long as his records stand, and Luck looks like he is going to have at least a shot at besting some of those marks. One of the things that Newton has struggled with is achieving wins, and with a win over both Minnesota and Green Bay now on his resume, Luck has a nice little campaign so far this year.
So far, collectors have made him one of the most valuable rookie quarterbacks ever to play, and that is even ahead of guys like Newton or even Matt Ryan from years past. Of course, he still has a very long way to go, but that hasnt stopped the speculation. Check out some of these ridiculous prices:
2012 Topps Finest Andrew Luck Superfractor Patch Auto
2012 Topps Platinum Andrew Luck Gold Refractor Patch Auto 3/5
2012 Panini Elite Andrew Luck / Peyton Manning Passing the Torch Dual Auto
Luck has a skill set unlike what we have seen in many years, and even going up against his draft partners in Robert Griffin III and even Russell Wilson hasnt slown down his incredible rise to the top of the rookie class. Its crazy to see how much even the most common of cards can surprise in the value they attain. With Chrome coming out later this month, could his cards be the most valuable Chrome base rookie in the last five to ten years? Put RGIII and Luck on a card
, and all of a sudden you have a windfall of cash changing hands. Its nuts.
No doubt, when you attract the attention that he has coming out of school, its going to be tough to have a go at it without everyone watching. Now that he has beaten two very good teams this year, he has already accomplished some of the things that Newton was not able to do last year on his way to all those records. I liked Luck a lot prior to the draft, but obviously his prominence was not a secret.
Prospecting a guy like him or even RGIII is useless, especially in a sport that has little to no room for mistakes and careers can end on one play. However, when play fluctuates like it does during the course of an NFL season, there is some money to be made.
A rookie (of 2011) you don’t speak is Colin Kaepernick. OK, it’s not a starter player. OK, his results are not the same than a Newton,… but look the stats and the regularity.
Based on recent history, it would seem futile to try to buy into a QB in their rookie year. They all seem to take a dive at some point during year 2-3. Consider the past 4 draft classes:
2008–Ryan & Flacco could be had on the cheap at almost any point during the past 2 years
2009–Stafford’s injuries definitely beat down his value very early in his career
2010–Bradford’s rookies can be had for roughly half of what they sold for during 2010
2011–Newton’s abysmal performance has me wishing I’d sold the only Newton I pulled last year. His values are dropping like a rock right now.
Having said that, out of 12 teams that made the playoffs last year, 10 of them had QB’s taken in the first or second round, 8 of them in the first round, and there were 4 #1 picks (Stafford, Ryan, Smith, Manning) so in the long run, #1 pick QB’s, especially the recent ones, seem to have pretty good success.
As a Giants fan, I look at the career of Eli as what can happen if a guy gets put in a good position, given time to learn, and given weapons around him. If you asked me in 2007, I’d have said get rid of him. But now he seems to have matured into a dominating QB. I think we put too much pressure on QB’s who are in year 1-4. These guys are typically 21-22 years old when they’re drafted and the peak at the QB position seems to be older than other positions, I’d say 30-34 years old.
My thought would be, sell your Lucks & RGIII’s now because you’ll be able to buy them back next year much cheaper. If there’s a guy you believe in like Ryan, Bradford, Cam, etc. now is the time to buy and hold.